Econometrics for Learning Agents

The main goal of this paper is to develop a theory of inference of player valuations from observed data in the generalized second price auction without relying on the Nash equilibrium assumption. Existing work in Economics on inferring agent values from data relies on the assumption that all participant strategies are best responses of the observed play of other players, i.e. they constitute a Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we show how to perform inference relying on a weaker assumption instead: assuming that players are using some form of no-regret learning. Learning outcomes emerged in recent years as an attractive alternative to Nash equilibrium in analyzing game outcomes, modeling players who haven't reached a stable equilibrium, but rather use algorithmic learning, aiming to learn the best way to play from previous observations. In this paper we show how to infer values of players who use algorithmic learning strategies. Such inference is an important first step before we move to testing any learning theoretic behavioral model on auction data. We apply our techniques to a dataset from Microsoft's sponsored search ad auction system

Truthful Learning Mechanisms for Multi-Slot Sponsored Search Auctions with Externalities

Sponsored search auctions constitute one of the most successful applications of microeconomic mechanisms. In mechanism design, auctions are usually designed to incentivize advertisers to bid their truthful valuations and to assure both the advertisers and the auctioneer a non-negative utility. Nonetheless, in sponsored search auctions, the click-through-rates (CTRs) of the advertisers are often unknown to the auctioneer and thus standard truthful mechanisms cannot be directly applied and must be paired with an effective learning algorithm for the estimation of the CTRs. This introduces the critical problem of designing a learning mechanism able to estimate the CTRs at the same time as implementing a truthful mechanism with a revenue loss as small as possible compared to an optimal mechanism designed with the true CTRs. Previous work showed that, when dominant-strategy truthfulness is adopted, in single-slot auctions the problem can be solved using suitable exploration-exploitation mechanisms able to achieve a per-step regret (over the auctioneer's revenue) of order $O(T^{-1/3})$ (where T is the number of times the auction is repeated). It is also known that, when truthfulness in expectation is adopted, a per-step regret (over the social welfare) of order $O(T^{-1/2})$ can be obtained. In this paper we extend the results known in the literature to the case of multi-slot auctions. In this case, a model of the user is needed to characterize how the advertisers' valuations change over the slots. We adopt the cascade model that is the most famous model in the literature for sponsored search auctions. We prove a number of novel upper bounds and lower bounds both on the auctioneer's revenue loss and social welfare w.r.t. to the VCG auction and we report numerical simulations investigating the accuracy of the bounds in predicting the dependency of the regret on the auction parameters

Multiplicative Bidding in Online Advertising

In this paper, we initiate the study of the multiplicative bidding language adopted by major Internet search companies. In multiplicative bidding, the effective bid on a particular search auction is the product of a base bid and bid adjustments that are dependent on features of the search (for example, the geographic location of the user, or the platform on which the search is conducted). We consider the task faced by the advertiser when setting these bid adjustments, and establish a foundational optimization problem that captures the core difficulty of bidding under this language. We give matching algorithmic and approximation hardness results for this problem; these results are against an information-theoretic bound, and thus have implications on the power of the multiplicative bidding language itself. Inspired by empirical studies of search engine price data, we then codify the relevant restrictions of the problem, and give further algorithmic and hardness results. Our main technical contribution is an $O(\log n)$-approximation for the case of multiplicative prices and monotone values. We also provide empirical validations of our problem restrictions, and test our algorithms on real data against natural benchmarks. Our experiments show that they perform favorably compared with the baseline.Comment: 25 pages; accepted to EC'1