Asymptotic optimality of the cross-entropy method for Markov chain problems

The correspondence between the cross-entropy method and the zero-variance approximation to simulate a rare event problem in Markov chains is shown. This leads to a sufficient condition that the cross-entropy estimator is asymptotically optimal.Comment: 13 pager; 3 figure

Variance Reduction Techniques in Monte Carlo Methods

Monte Carlo methods are simulation algorithms to estimate a numerical quantity in a statistical model of a real system. These algorithms are executed by computer programs. Variance reduction techniques (VRT) are needed, even though computer speed has been increasing dramatically, ever since the introduction of computers. This increased computer power has stimulated simulation analysts to develop ever more realistic models, so that the net result has not been faster execution of simulation experiments; e.g., some modern simulation models need hours or days for a single ’run’ (one replication of one scenario or combination of simulation input values). Moreover there are some simulation models that represent rare events which have extremely small probabilities of occurrence), so even modern computer would take ’for ever’ (centuries) to execute a single run - were it not that special VRT can reduce theses excessively long runtimes to practical magnitudes.common random numbers;antithetic random numbers;importance sampling;control variates;conditioning;stratied sampling;splitting;quasi Monte Carlo

Distributed Binary Detection with Lossy Data Compression

Consider the problem where a statistician in a two-node system receives rate-limited information from a transmitter about marginal observations of a memoryless process generated from two possible distributions. Using its own observations, this receiver is required to first identify the legitimacy of its sender by declaring the joint distribution of the process, and then depending on such authentication it generates the adequate reconstruction of the observations satisfying an average per-letter distortion. The performance of this setup is investigated through the corresponding rate-error-distortion region describing the trade-off between: the communication rate, the error exponent induced by the detection and the distortion incurred by the source reconstruction. In the special case of testing against independence, where the alternative hypothesis implies that the sources are independent, the optimal rate-error-distortion region is characterized. An application example to binary symmetric sources is given subsequently and the explicit expression for the rate-error-distortion region is provided as well. The case of "general hypotheses" is also investigated. A new achievable rate-error-distortion region is derived based on the use of non-asymptotic binning, improving the quality of communicated descriptions. Further improvement of performance in the general case is shown to be possible when the requirement of source reconstruction is relaxed, which stands in contrast to the case of general hypotheses.Comment: to appear on IEEE Trans. Information Theor

Semiparametric Cross Entropy for rare-event simulation

The Cross Entropy method is a well-known adaptive importance sampling method for rare-event probability estimation, which requires estimating an optimal importance sampling density within a parametric class. In this article we estimate an optimal importance sampling density within a wider semiparametric class of distributions. We show that this semiparametric version of the Cross Entropy method frequently yields efficient estimators. We illustrate the excellent practical performance of the method with numerical experiments and show that for the problems we consider it typically outperforms alternative schemes by orders of magnitude

Linear PDEs and eigenvalue problems corresponding to ergodic stochastic optimization problems on compact manifolds

We consider long term average or `ergodic' optimal control poblems with a special structure: Control is exerted in all directions and the control costs are proportional to the square of the norm of the control field with respect to the metric induced by the noise. The long term stochastic dynamics on the manifold will be completely characterized by the long term density $\rho$ and the long term current density $J$. As such, control problems may be reformulated as variational problems over $\rho$ and $J$. We discuss several optimization problems: the problem in which both $\rho$ and $J$ are varied freely, the problem in which $\rho$ is fixed and the one in which $J$ is fixed. These problems lead to different kinds of operator problems: linear PDEs in the first two cases and a nonlinear PDE in the latter case. These results are obtained through through variational principle using infinite dimensional Lagrange multipliers. In the case where the initial dynamics are reversible we obtain the result that the optimally controlled diffusion is also symmetrizable. The particular case of constraining the dynamics to be reversible of the optimally controlled process leads to a linear eigenvalue problem for the square root of the density process