Gradual Wage-Price Adjustments, Labour Market Frictions and Monetary Policy Rules

Contrary to the assumption of perfectly flexible labour markets commonly used in mainstream macroeconomic models, in the real world the existence of structural imperfections such as search and trading costs hinder the frictionless functioning of these markets, generally leading to outcomes of Non-Walrasian type with involuntary unemployment and open vacancies in "equilibrium". In this paper the author models the existence of labour market frictions into a Keynesian (Disequilibrium) AS-AD framework in the line of Asada, Chen, Chiarella and Flaschel (2006) through a labour search and matching function. By means of dynamic shock simulations, the author finds that the extent of the labour market rigidity has a great importance for the dynamics not only of employment and output, but also of wage and price inflation, and consequently also for the conduction of monetary policy.Labour market frictions, staggered wage and price dynamics, (D)AS- AD, monetary policy

FiMod - a DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations

This paper develops a medium-scale dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium (DSGE) model for fiscal policy simulations. Relative to existingmodels of this type, our model incorporates a two-country monetary union structure, which makes it well suited to simulate fiscal measures by relatively large countries in a currency area. We also provide a notable degree of disaggregation on the government expenditures side, by explicitly distinguishing between (productivity-enhancing) public investment, public purchases and the public sector wage bill. Finally, we consider a labor market characterized by search and matching frictions, which allows to analyze the response of equilibrium unemployment to fiscal measures. In order to illustrate some of its applications, and motivated by recent policy debate in the Euro Area, we calibrate the model to Spain and the rest of the area and simulate a number of fiscal consolidation scenarios. We find that, in terms of output and employment losses, fiscal consolidation is the least damaging when achieved by reducing the public sector wage bill, whereas it is most damaging when carried out by cutting public investment. --General Equilibrium,Fiscal Policy Simulations,Labor Market Search

International Propagation of Financial Shocks in a Search and Matching Environment

This paper develops a two-country multi-frictional model where the freeze on liquidity access to commercial banks in one country raises unemployment rates via credit rationing in both countries. The expenditure-switching channel, whereby asymmetric monetary shocks traditionally lead to negative comovements of home and foreign outputs, is considerably weakened via opposite forces driving the exchange rate. Meanwhile, it is proved that financial market integration forms a transmission channel per se, without resorting to international cross-holdings of risky assets. The search and matching modeling serves two purposes. First, it accounts for the time needed to restore a normal level of confidence following financial market disruptions. Second, it allows dissociating pure liquidity contractions from non-walrasian financial shocks, arriving despite global excess savings and due to heterogeneity in the quality of the banking system. The former induce negative comovements of home and foreign outputs, in accordance with the literature, whereas the new type of financial shocks does generate financial contagion.matching theory, financial markets, credit rationing, financial multiplier, international transmission, financial crises, open economy macroeconomics

Uncertainty and the politics of employment protection

This paper investigates the social preferences over labor market exibility, in a general equilibrium model of dynamic labor demand. We demonstrate that how the economy responds to productivity shocks depends on the power of labor to extract rents and on the status quo level of the firing cost. In particular, we show that when the firing cost is initially relatively low, a transition to a rigid labor market is favored by all the employed workers with idiosyncratic productivity below some threshold value. Conversely, when the status quo level of the firing cost is relatively high, the preservation of a rigid labor market is favored by the employed with intermediate productivity, whereas all other workers favor more exibility. A more volatile environment, and a lower rate of productivity growth, i.e., "bad times," increase the political support for more labor market rigidity only where labor appropriates of relatively large rents. The coming of better economic conditions not necessarily favors the demise of high firing costs in rigid high-rents economies, because "good times" cut down the support for flexibility among the least productive employed workers. The model described provides some new insights on the comparative dynamics of labor market institutions in the U.S. and in Europe over the last few decades, shedding some new light both on the reasons for the original build-up of "Eurosclerosis," and for its relative persistence until the present day

Unemployment insurance and the business cycle: prolong benefit entitlements in bad times?

The aim of this paper is to study the optimal duration of unemployment benefit entitlement duration across the business cycle. We wonder if the entitlement duration should be prolonged in bad and shortened in good times. Because of consumption smoothing, such a countercyclical policy can be welfare-enhancing as long as it does not affect labor market adjustment too severely or even helps to reduce inefficiencies there. If, however, the labor market is quite inflexible already, procyclical behavior may be preferable. In a calibrated dynamic business cycle framework, we find that countercyclical benefit entitlement duration may be preferable in the US but not in Europe. --Unemployment insurance,entitlement duration,business cycle

Adding Bricks to Clicks: The Contingencies Driving Cannibalization and Complementarity in Multichannel Retailing

This paper empirically explores the contingencies that drive cannibalizing and complementary effects across channels to provide sales forecasting, promotion planning, and customer relationship management guidance to multichannel managers. We investigate three contingencies in a sales analysis of a leading U.S. retailer who adds a new retail store channel to existing catalog and online channels. We show that the emergence and strength of cannibalizing and complementary effects varies over time, across type of channel, and by type of customer, and provide insight into when and where managers can expect these effects to dominate and how to counter cannibalization and promote complementarity across channels. We find that opening retail stores cannibalizes sales in the catalog and online channels in the short term, but produces complementary effects in both channels in the long term; cannibalization is magnified in the catalog channel, while complementarity is magnified in the online channel. Customer analysis suggests that opening retail stores paves the way for higher rates of customer acquisition and higher rates of repeat purchasing among existing customers in the direct channels in the long term.Multichannel Retailing, Channels of Distribution, Direct Marketing, E-commerce, Channel Management

Equilibrium Search Unemployment, Endogenous Participation and Labor Market Flows.

The sustainability of Welfare States requires high employment/high participation to raise the tax base and avoid distortions. To analyse labour market participation decisions in a world with market frictions, we propose and solve a three-state macro model of the labour market. We show that workers' decisions of entering into the labour market and exiting from the labour market are fundamentally different in the presence of frictions: irreversible costs paid by workers at the entry level imply that labour supply is determined by two margins, the entry and the exit margins. On the normative point of view, we show that the existence of two margins alters significantly the conventional effects of payroll taxes and unemployment benefits. On the positive point of view, our model rationalizes the existence of most labour market flows and of 'marginally attached workers'. Furthermore, a calibration improves the usual representations of labour markets.

Ramsey monetary policy with labour market frictions

This paper studies the design of optimal monetary policy (in terms of unconstrained Ramsey allocation) in a framework with sticky prices and matching frictions. Furthermore I consider the role of real wage rigidities. Optimal policy features significant deviations from price stability in response to various shocks. This is so since search externalities generate an unemployment/inflation trade-off. In response to productivity shocks optimal policy is pro-cyclical when the worker’s bargaining power is higher than the share of unemployed people in the matching technology and viceversa. This is so since when the workers’ share of surplus is high there are many searching workers and few vacancies hence the monetary authority has an incentive to increase vacancy profitability by reducing the interest rate and increasing inflation. The opposite is true when the workers’ share of surplus is high. This implies that optimal inflation volatility is U-shaped with respect to workers’ bargaining power. JEL Classification: E52, E24matching frictions, optimal monetary policy, wage rigidity