Asset and Liability Modeling for Participating Policies with Guarantees

We study the problem of asset and liability management of participating insurance policies with guarantees. We develop a scenario optimization model for integrative asset and liability management, analyze the tradeoffs in structuring such policies, and study alternative choices in funding them. The nonlinearly constrained optimization model can be linearized through closed form solutions of the dynamic equations. Thus large-scale problems are solved with standard methods. We report on an empirical analysis of policies offered by Italian insurers. The optimized model results are in general agreement with current industry practices. However, some inefficiencies are identified and potential improvements are highlighted.

The Value of Integrative Risk Management for Insurance Products with Guarantees

Insurers increasingly offer policies that converge with the products of the capital markets, and they face a need for integrative asset and liability management strategies. In this paper we show that an integrative approach -- based on scenario optimization modeling -- adds value to the risk management process, when compared to traditional methods. Empirical analysis with products offered by the Italian insurance industry are presented. The results have implications for the design of competitive insurance policies, and some examples are analyzed.

Alternative framework for the fair valuation of participating life insurance contracts

In this communication, we develop suitable valuation techniques for a with-profit/unitized with profit life insurance policy providing interest rate guarantees, when a jump-diffusion process for the evolution of the underlying reference portfolio is used. Particular attention is given to the mispricing generated by the misspecification of a jumpdiffusion process for the underlying asset as a pure diffusion process, and to which extent this mispricing affects the profitability and the solvency of the life insurance company issuing these contracts

Financing the embedded value of life insurance portfolios

In May 2004 the CFO Forum harmonized the various efforts of reporting the embedded valueof life insurance companies by issuing the European Embedded Value (EEV) Principles.In this working paper a methodology is proposed to derive a maximum lending amountfrom EEV figures without much additional data requirements from the originating insurer. The approach chosen is similar to that of other financing areas, e.g. real estate finance, where first a prudent best estimate valuation is done and later risk deductions are performed in the form of applying loan to value ratios, e.g. 60-80 % of the prudent amount. Here, this prudent value is called bankable embedded value and the loan to value analysis presented leads to the maximum lending amount. The deductions proposed to arrive at a maximum lending amount are based on parameter adjustments and risk allowances for unexpected risks. There is an analogy with insurers for determining their own capital needs. The methodology proposed is based on the stress test approach which increasingly gains popularity with insurance supervisors in Europe. --European embedded value,embedded value,life insurance policies,maximum lending amount,required capital,risk analysis,risk discount rate,value reporting and analysis,value sensitivity analysis

Asset and Liability Modelling for Participating Policies with Guarantee

We study the problem of asset and liability management of participating insurance policies with guarantees. We develop a scenario optimization model for integrative asset and liability management, analyse the tradeoffs in structuring such policies, and study alternative choices in funding them. The nonlinearly constrained optimization model can be linearised through closed form solutions of the dynamic equations. Thus large-scale problems are solved with standard methods. We report on an empirical analysis of policies offered by Italian insurers. The optimized model results are in general agreement with current industry practices. However, some inefficiencies are identified and potential improvements are highlighted

A Conditional Value–at–Risk Model for Insurance Products with Guarantee

We propose a model to select the optimal portfolio which underlies insurance policies with a guarantee. The objective function is defined in order to minimise the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of the distribution of the losses with respect to a target return. We add operational and regulatory constraints to make the model as flexible as possible when used for real applications. We show that the integration of the asset and liability side yields superior performances with respect to naive fixed-mix portfolios and asset based strategies.We validate the model on out-of-sample scenarios and provide insights on policy design

Investment Strategies and Risk Management for Participating Life Insurance Contracts

This paper proposes an asset allocation strategy for the risk management of the broad category of participating life insurance policies. The nature of the liability implied by these contracts allows us to treat them as options written on the reference portfolio backing the policy; consequently, the valuation approach is based on classical contingent claim theory. This leads to the identification of additional safety loadings against the risk of default implied by these contracts, and the setting up of suitable investment strategies aimed at minimizing this risk. The impact on the solvency requirements for the capital of the insurer of the proposed asset allocation strategy is analyzed by means of Monte Carlo techniques. Stress testing is considered as well with respect to the key risk factors of the model, such as the equity volatility and the market interest rate. The numerical analysis shows that, for the specific policy design considered in this paper, a suitable choice of the participation rate combined with the proposed investment strategy minimizes the overall default risk of the insurance company, both in terms of probability of default and expected severi

Real World Pricing of Long Term Contracts

Long dated contingent claims are relevant in insurance, pension fund management and derivative pricing. This paper proposes a paradigm shift in the valuation of long term contracts, away from classical no-arbitrage pricing towards pricing under the real world probability measure. In contrast to risk neutral pricing, the long term excess return of the equity market, known as the equity premium, is taken into account. Further, instead of the savings account, the numeraire portfolio isused, as the fundamental unit of value in the analysis. The numeraire portfolio is the strictly positive, tradable portfolio that when used as benchmark makes all benchmarked non negative portfolios supermartingales, which means intuitively that these are downward trending or at least trendless. Furthermore, the benchmarked real world price of a benchmarked claimis defined to be its real world conditional expectation. This yields the minimal possible price for its hedgable part and minimizes the variance of the benchmarked hedge error. The pooled total benchmarked replication error of a large insurance company or bank essentially vanishes due to diversification. Interestingly, in long terml iability and asset valuation, real world pricing can lead to significantly lower prices than suggested by classical no-arbitragea rguments. Moreover, since the existence of some equivalent risk neutral probability measure is no longer required, a wider and more realistic modeling framework is available for exploration. Classical actuarial and risk neutral pricing emerge as special cases of real world pricing.long term pricing; real world pricing; risk neutral pricing; numeraire portfolio; law of the minimal price; strong arbitrage; hedges imulation; diversification; liquidity premium

Accounting for government guarantees: perspectives on fiscal transparency from four modes of accounting

Government guarantees are increasingly important as a policy instrument in public infrastructure investment and to assist the banking and financial sectors following the global financial crisis. This paper analyses how different modes of accounting characterize such guarantees in the contexts of public sector financial reporting, statistical accounting, budgeting and long-term fiscal projections. Guarantees are difficult to specify for accounting treatment and consistent conceptualization of liabilities. These difficulties make it attractive for governments to treat obligations as off-budget and off-balance sheet contingent liabilities, rather than recognize them in financial statements and statistical accounts. Miller and Power’s territorializing, mediating, adjudicating and subjectivizing roles of accounting are utilized to analyse the reporting of UK government guarantees. Provisioning for guarantees is complex in financial reporting statements and often absent in national accounts, a deficiency which Eurostat has attempted to address by devising the concept of standardized guarantees and by securing more disclosure of contingent liabilities. There is potential for future research especially where there is greater mediation between the four modes of government accounting

A market-consistent framework for the fair evaluation of insurance contracts under Solvency II

The entry into force of the Solvency II regulatory regime is pushing insurance companies in engaging into market consistence evaluation of their balance sheet, mainly with reference to financial options and guarantees embedded in life with-profit funds. The robustness of these valuations is crucial for insurance companies in order to produce sound estimates and good risk management strategies, in particular, for liability-driven products such as with-profit saving and pension funds. This paper introduces a Monte Carlo simulation approach for evaluation of insurance assets and liabilities, which is more suitable for risk management of liability-driven products than common approaches generally adopted by insurance companies, in particular, with respect to the assessment of valuation risk