Behavioral-economics approach to auditors\u27 risk assessments

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/dl_proceedings/1044/thumbnail.jp

Prioritizing quality dimensions for a Polymer industry using Best-Worst Method.

This research answers the complex decision-making question about identifying the quality dimensions in a polymer industry and to prioritize these quality dimensions to obtain the best quality product with minimum expenditure. This research takes use of expert opinion and right decision-making model to yield an optimal solution which will help the manufacturing plants to reduce wastage and to get a better consistent quality product throughout the production process

Supplier quality improvement: the value of information under uncertainty

We consider supplier development decisions for prime manufacturers with extensive supply bases producing complex, highly engineered products. We propose a novel modelling approach to support supply chain managers decide the optimal level of investment to improve quality performance under uncertainty. We develop a Poisson–Gamma model within a Bayesian framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in non-conformance rates. Estimates are obtained to value a supplier quality improvement activity and assess if it is worth gaining more information to reduce epistemic uncertainty. The theoretical properties of our model provide new insights about the relationship between the degree of epistemic uncertainty, the effectiveness of development programmes, and the levels of investment. We find that the optimal level of investment does not have a monotonic relationship with the rate of effectiveness. If investment is deferred until epistemic uncertainty is removed then the expected optimal investment monotonically decreases as prior variance increases but only if the prior mean is above a critical threshold. We develop methods to facilitate practical application of the model to industrial decisions by a) enabling use of the model with typical data available to major companies and b) developing computationally efficient approximations that can be implemented easily. Application to a real industry context illustrates the use of the model to support practical planning decisions to learn more about supplier quality and to invest in improving supplier capability

Towards building a safety case for Marine Unmanned Surface Vehicles: a Bayesian perspective

Marine Unmanned Surface Vehicles (MUSVs) are essential platforms for persistent and adaptable ocean monitoring and sampling. In order to operate these platforms in coastal areas or near oil and gas waters the MUSVs must meet statutorily and industry safety requirements. Given the novelty of these platforms, there is lack of evidence to support the claim that a given safety target can be met without any additional protection. Therefore, for safety critical operations, MUSVs require the implementation of a safety function. The development of a safety function must comply with IEC61508 safety standard, which requires a quantification of the safety integrity level. Compliance to IEC61508 is subject to subjective uncertainty. The nature of the technology in terms of mode of operation and the environment in which operates exacerbates this uncertainty. This paper presents a Bayesian belief network for formalizing the safety arguments underpinning MUSV compliance to IEC 615078 safety standard

Auditing Symposium XII: Proceedings of the 1994 Deloitte & Touche/University of Kansas Symposium on Auditing Problems

Discussant\u27s response to The Acme Financial Statement Insurance Company Inc: A case study / Dan A. Simunic; Behavioral-economics approach to auditors\u27 risk assessments / William S. Waller; Discussant\u27s response to A Behavioral-economics approach to auditors\u27 risk assessments / Peter R. Gillett; Auditing for fraud: Perception vs reality / Alan J. Winters, John B. Sullivan; What we can learn from Yogi Berra: Discussant\u27s response to Auditing for fraud: Perception vs reality / Karen V. Pincus; What\u27s really wrong with the accounting profession? / A. A. Sommer; Client acceptance and continuation decisions / Stephen Asare, Karl Hackenbrack, W. Robert Knechel; Discussant\u27s response to Accounting and auditing history: Major developments in England and the United States from ancient roots through the mid-twentieth century / G. William Graham ; Exploratory analysis of the determinants of audit engagement resource allocations / Timothy B. Bell, W. Robert Knechel, John J. Willingham; Discussant\u27s response to An Exploratory analysis of the determinants of audit engagement resource allocations / Jane F. Mutchler; Investigation of adaptability in evidential planning / Janice D. DiPietro, Theodore J. Mock, Arnold Wright; Accounting and auditing history: Major developments in England and the United States from ancient roots through the mid-twentieth century / Howard Stettler; Discussant\u27s response to An Investigation of adaptability in evidential planning / Norman R. Walker; Acme Financial Statement Insurance Company Inc: A case study / Stephen J. Aldersleyhttps://egrove.olemiss.edu/dl_proceedings/1011/thumbnail.jp

Configural information processing in audit evidence evaluation / 1569

Includes bibliographical references (p. 28-30)

Explaining away, augmentation, and the assumption of independence

In reasoning about situations in which several causes lead to a common effect, a much studied and yet still not well-understood inference is that of explaining away. Assuming that the causes contribute independently to the effect, if we learn that the effect is present, then this increases the probability that one or more of the causes are present. But if we then learn that a particular cause is present, this cause “explains” the presence of the effect, and the probabilities of the other causes decrease again. People tend to show this explaining away effect in their probability judgments, but to a lesser extent than predicted by the causal structure of the situation. We investigated further the conditions under which explaining away is observed. Participants estimated the probability of a cause, given the presence or the absence of another cause, for situations in which the effect was either present or absent, and the evidence about the effect was either certain or uncertain. Responses were compared to predictions obtained using Bayesian network modeling as well as a sensitivity analysis of the size of normative changes in probability under different information conditions. One of the conditions investigated: when there is certainty that the effect is absent, is special because under the assumption of causal independence, the probabilities of the causes remain invariant, that is, there is no normative explaining away or augmentation. This condition is therefore especially diagnostic of people’s reasoning about common-effect structures. The findings suggest that, alongside earlier explanations brought forward in the literature, explaining away may occur less often when the causes are assumed to interact in their contribution to the effect, and when the normative size of the probability change is not large enough to be subjectively meaningful. Further, people struggled when given evidence against negative evidence, resembling a double negation effect

Quality assessment of e-commerce websites using Bayesian belief networks

This thesis raises the issue of quality in E-commerce websites and addresses methodologies and approaches to standardize their assessment. The thesis blends the knowledge of academic research with the opinions and insights from experts and practitioners in the field to provide a comprehensive view of the issues and their remedies. The most experienced and successful E-commerce companies are beginning to realize that key determinants of success or failure are not merely a web presence or a low price but delivering a high quality website. Recent research shows that price and promotion are no longer the main draws for customers to make a decision on a purchase. More sophisticated online customers would rather pay a higher price to a provider with high quality service. Given that the establishment of an E-commerce website is mainly a software development effort; there are several standards that apply in governing the quality of such development. There seems to be an almost overwhelming abundance of quality standards that lead to a high level of cynicism and skepticism surrounding them and the eventual lack of use. Furthermore, no standard can directly predict the quality a website under development is going to achieve. Past approaches concerning the quality of E-commerce websites emphasize usability standards using techniques like feature inspection and collecting data about end-users' opinion by questionnaires. These methods provide important feedback and their results can be utilized as a useful background for future work, however, they do not contribute directly to a dynamic model that enables forecasting. The study of quality in the domain of the Internet in general, and E-commerce in particular, poses new challenges as technology evolves, including methods and metrics for estimating, managing quality during the product life cycle and quality-of-use measurement. The solution proposed by this research is to use a Bayesian Belief Network model. This model provides a consistent and practical approach to assessing the quality of the website. The assessment can be carried out before the completion of the website development, thus, providing insight on the trend and direction for correction and improvements. It can also be carried out on completed and operational work, providing analysis of areas for improvement. The model should be relatively quick and practical in providing an overall comprehensive assessment with root-cause analysis that would lead to corrective measures to improve the quality of the E-commerce website. In this research idioms were applied in realizing a complete Bayesian Belief Network model. The conclusions are measured against comparative assessment to validate the practical benefits of the work accomplished. The WebQual method was utilized to validate the "belief" established by the model.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Quality assessment of e-commerce websites using Bayesian belief networks

This thesis raises the issue of quality in E-commerce websites and addresses methodologies and approaches to standardize their assessment. The thesis blends the knowledge of academic research with the opinions and insights from experts and practitioners in the field to provide a comprehensive view of the issues and their remedies. The most experienced and successful E-commerce companies are beginning to realize that key determinants of success or failure are not merely a web presence or a low price but delivering a high quality website. Recent research shows that price and promotion are no longer the main draws for customers to make a decision on a purchase. More sophisticated online customers would rather pay a higher price to a provider with high quality service. Given that the establishment of an E-commerce website is mainly a software development effort; there are several standards that apply in governing the quality of such development. There seems to be an almost overwhelming abundance of quality standards that lead to a high level of cynicism and skepticism surrounding them and the eventual lack of use. Furthermore, no standard can directly predict the quality a website under development is going to achieve. Past approaches concerning the quality of E-commerce websites emphasize usability standards using techniques like feature inspection and collecting data about end-users' opinion by questionnaires. These methods provide important feedback and their results can be utilized as a useful background for future work, however, they do not contribute directly to a dynamic model that enables forecasting. The study of quality in the domain of the Internet in general, and E-commerce in particular, poses new challenges as technology evolves, including methods and metrics for estimating, managing quality during the product life cycle and quality-of-use measurement. The solution proposed by this research is to use a Bayesian Belief Network model. This model provides a consistent and practical approach to assessing the quality of the website. The assessment can be carried out before the completion of the website development, thus, providing insight on the trend and direction for correction and improvements. It can also be carried out on completed and operational work, providing analysis of areas for improvement. The model should be relatively quick and practical in providing an overall comprehensive assessment with root-cause analysis that would lead to corrective measures to improve the quality of the E-commerce website. In this research idioms were applied in realizing a complete Bayesian Belief Network model. The conclusions are measured against comparative assessment to validate the practical benefits of the work accomplished. The WebQual method was utilized to validate the "belief" established by the model.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo