Urban heat stress vulnerability in the U.S. Southwest: The role of sociotechnical systems

Heat vulnerability of urban populations is becoming a major issue of concern with climate change, particularly in the cities of the Southwest United States. In this article we discuss the importance of understanding coupled social and technical systems, how they constitute one another, and how they form the conditions and circumstances in which people experience heat. We discuss the particular situation of Los Angeles and Maricopa Counties, their urban form and the electric grid. We show how vulnerable populations are created by virtue of the age and construction of buildings, the morphology of roads and distribution of buildings on the landscape. Further, the regulatory infrastructure of electricity generation and distribution also contributes to creating differential vulnerability. We contribute to a better understanding of the importance of sociotechnical systems. Social infrastructure includes codes, conventions, rules and regulations; technical systems are the hard systems of pipes, wires, buildings, roads, and power plants. These interact to create lock-in that is an obstacle to addressing issues such as urban heat stress in a novel and equitable manner

Optimal cooperative model for the security of gas supply on European gas networks

Natural gas infrastructures play a key role in the transition towards the new energy model, with a high share of renewable energies, both ensuring the firm capacity of electric power systems and integrating all energy vectors. The European Union (EU) strongly depends on external natural gas suppliers and is thus particularly vulnerable. In the event of supply problems due to natural phenomena, technical failures or other threats, cooperation between EU countries would be essential to best solve a supply crisis. This study proposes an EU cooperative model to meet the gas demand over a fourteen-day crisis, using a mathematical optimisation approach for resources and infrastructure. The model considers the dynamic management of underground gas storage facilities, limiting daily withdrawal based on the amount of working gas available in each storage facility. The ability of the model to make quick decisions is illustrated in six gas-demand case studies of the European cold wave in January 2017 and hypothetical supply disruptions

Global Risks 2012, Seventh Edition

The World Economic Forum's Global Risks 2012 report is based on a survey of 469 experts from industry, government, academia and civil society that examines 50 global risks across five categories. The report emphasizes the singular effect of a particular constellation of global risks rather than focusing on a single existential risk. Three distinct constellations of risks that present a very serious threat to our future prosperity and security emerged from a review of this year's set of risks. Includes a special review of the important lessons learned from the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and the subsequent nuclear crisis at Fukushima, Japan. It focuses on therole of leadership, challenges to effective communication in this information age and resilient business models in response to crises of unforeseen magnitude

Adequacy modeling and evaluation of multi-carrier energy systems to supply energy services from different infrastructures

Development of MCESs (Multi-Carrier Energy Systems) can make the energy supply more reliable and efficient. Due to the redundancy potential of these systems, in case of an energy carrier interruption, consumers may be able to supply part of their loads from other energy infrastructures. This paper presents an approach for evaluating the adequacy of MCESs considering the dependencies of energy carriers at both generation side and demand side. To model the adequacy of generation systems sup- plying different forms of energy, a new methodology is presented, which considers the limitation of primary resources and takes into account the COPTs (Capacity Outage Probability Tables) of different energy infrastructure components. The model incorporates the impact of load dependencies at the de- mand side. A new focus is set up, by considering the outputs as services that can be provided through different types of energy supply. Illustrative results are presented to show the application of the pro- posed models to multi-energy systems

STRESS-STRAIN CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR THE IMPACT OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON COUPLED INFRASTRUCTURE FACILITIES

Infrastructure facilities serve as the backbone of the communities and industries by sustaining social and economic activities through their services. However, the physical impact of a disaster can have an adverse effect on the functioning of the infrastructure. In addition, the affected infrastructure facilities are unable to adequately meet the needs of the community immediately after the disaster. Thus, to compensate for gaps in services, infrastructure facilities are likely to run their systems, such that it puts additional stress on their resources that exceeds their designed capacities at the expense of level of service. For example, after the devastating earthquake in Haiti in 2010, disrupted utility services, limited available road networks, and the lack of civic governance influenced the capacity of all essential service providers such as hospitals. Furthermore, the hospitals that were impacted by the earthquake had limited resources, such as water and power utility for operating the hospitals, beds for patients, medical staff, and medical supplies, to meet the increased health needs of the community. As a result, the hospitals in Haiti had to put excessive stress on their available resources, as their remaining capacities were not enough to accommodate the increased number of patients without assistance from NGOs or other external entities. If the emergency managers of the hospitals were able to evaluate their remaining capacities based on the excessive stress so that they could make appropriate strategies for mitigating the excessive stress ahead of time, the infrastructure facility would have serviced the affected communities more efficiently

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A HIGH HUMANE AND LOW CARBON FUTURE

Presently India is facing the twin challenge of energy universalization as well as emission reduction. Nearly 0.4 billion people in India mostly residing in rural areas do not have access to electricity and more than 0.8 billion people do not use modern cooking fuels. Provision of energy services however needs to take into account the global temperatures rise, which if to be limited to 2C more from its pre-industrial value, Green House Gas (GHG) emissions must be halved by 2050 from its 1990 level. Energy infrastructure plays a key role to meet this dual challenge of universalization of energy services and reduction of energy-induced emissions. Assessing Indias infrastructure, this study presents the high humane (Energy universalization) and low carbon scenarios and discusses investment needs, financing mechanisms and the key policy issues.Energy climate nexus, Energy universalization, Infrastructure Investments, Financing mechanisms, Energy efficiency.

GIS-based method to assess seismic vulnerability of interconnected infrastructure: A case of EU gas and electricity networks

Our study concerns the interconnected European Electricity and Gas transmission grid where we address two important issues of these interdependent critical infrastructures. First we assessed the response under seismic hazard for each independent network; then we analysed the increased vulnerability due to coupling between these two heterogeneous networks. We developed a probability reliability model that encompasses the spatial distribution of the network structures using a Geographic Information System (GIS). We applied the seismic risk assessment of individual network facilities and presented the results in the form of the system fragility curves of the (independent and dependant) networks in terms of various performance measures - connectivity loss, power loss, and impact on the population. We characterized the coupling behaviour between the two networks as a physical dependency: here the electricity grid, in part, depends on the gas network due to the generation capacity of gas-fired power plants. The dependence of one network on the other is modelled with an interoperability matrix, which is defined in terms of the strength of coupling; additionally we consider how the mechanical-structural fragility of the pipelines of the gas-source supply stream contributes to this dependence. In addition to network-wide assessment, damage was also evaluated at a local level by examining the performance status of each and every electricity distribution substation in the electricity grid. Finally, the comprehensive geographical distributions of performance loss at the European level can be visualized on a GIS tool; showing, as expected, that the highest direct damage in southeast Europe.JRC.DG.G.5-European laboratory for structural assessmen

Methodological Framework for Analysing Cascading Effects from Flood Events: The Case of Sukhumvit Area, Bangkok, Thailand

This is the final version of the article. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record.Impacts from floods in urban areas can be diverse and wide ranging. These can include the loss of human life, infrastructure and property damages, as well as other kinds of nuisance and inconvenience to urban life. Hence, the ability to identify and quantify wider ranging effects from floods is of the utmost importance to urban flood managers and infrastructure operators. The present work provides a contribution in this direction and describes a methodological framework for analysing cascading effects from floods that has been applied for the Sukhumvit area in Bangkok (Thailand). It demonstrates that the effects from floods can be much broader in their reach and magnitude than the sole impacts incurred from direct and immediate losses. In Sukhumvit, these include loss of critical services, assets and goods, traffic congestion and delays in transportation, loss of business and income, disturbances and discomfort to the residents, and all these can be traced with the careful analysis of cascading effects. The present work explored the use of different visualization options to present the findings. These include a casual loop diagram, a HAZUR resilience map, a tree diagram and GIS maps.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under Grant Agreement No. 603663 for the research project PEARL (Preparing for Extreme and Rare events in coastaL regions). The authors are grateful to Opticits for providing the HAZUR software licence, within the collaboration of the EU H2020 research project RESCCUE (RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban arEas—a multisectorial approach focusing on water) Grant Agreement 700174

Urban Heat Stress Vulnerability in the U.S. Southwest: The Role of Sociotechnical Systems

abstract: Heat vulnerability of urban populations is becoming a major issue of concern with climate change, particularly in the cities of the Southwest United States. In this article we discuss the importance of understanding coupled social and technical systems, how they constitute one another, and how they form the conditions and circumstances in which people experience heat. We discuss the particular situation of Los Angeles and Maricopa Counties, their urban form and the electric grid. We show how vulnerable populations are created by virtue of the age and construction of buildings, the morphology of roads and distribution of buildings on the landscape. Further, the regulatory infrastructure of electricity generation and distribution also contributes to creating differential vulnerability. We contribute to a better understanding of the importance of sociotechnical systems. Social infrastructure includes codes, conventions, rules and regulations; technical systems are the hard systems of pipes, wires, buildings, roads, and power plants. These interact to create lock-in that is an obstacle to addressing issues such as urban heat stress in a novel and equitable manner

Assessing the impact of investments in Cross-border pipelines on the security of gas supply in the EU

The European Union (EU) is highly dependent on external natural gas supplies and has experienced severe gas cuts in the past, mainly driven by the technical complexity of the high-pressure natural gas system and political instability in some of the supplier countries. Declining indigenous natural gas production and growing demand for gas in the EU has encouraged investments in cross-border transmission capacity to increase the sharing of resources between the member states, particularly in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis in January 2009. This article models the EU interconnected natural gas system to assess the impact of investments in the gas transmission network by comparing the performance of the system for scenarios of 2009 and 2017, using a mathematical optimization approach. The model uses the technical data of the infrastructures, such as production, storage, regasification, and exchange capacity through cross-border pipelines, and proposes an optimal collaborative strategy which ensures the best possible coverage of overall demand. The actual peak demand situations of the extreme cases of 2009 and 2017 are analyzed under hypothetical supply crises caused by geopolitical or commercial disputes. The application of the proposed methodology leads to results which show that the investments made in this system do not decongest the cross-border pipeline network but improve the demand coverage. Countries such as Spain and Italy experience a lower impact on gas supply due to the variety of mechanisms available to cover their demand. Furthermore, the findings prove that cooperation facilitates the supply of demand in crisis situations