Recent glacier and lake changes in High Mountain Asia and their relation to precipitation changes

We present an updated, spatially resolved estimate of 2003–2008 glacier surface elevation changes for the entire region of High Mountain Asia (HMA) from ICESat laser altimetry data. The results reveal a diverse pattern that is caused by spatially greatly varying glacier sensitivity, in particular to precipitation availability and changes. We introduce a spatially resolved zonation where ICESat samples are grouped into units of similar glacier behaviour, glacier type and topographic settings. In several regions, our new zonation reveals local differences and anomalies that have not been described previously. Glaciers in the Eastern Pamirs, Kunlun Shan and central TP were thickening by 0.1–0.7 m a−1, and the thickening anomaly has a crisp boundary in the Eastern Pamirs that continues just north of the central Karakoram. Glaciers in the south and east of the TP were thinning, with increasing rates towards southeast. We attribute the glacier thickening signal to a stepwise increase in precipitation around ∼1997–2000 on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The precipitation change is reflected by growth of endorheic lakes in particular in the northern and eastern TP. We estimate lake volume changes through a combination of repeat lake extents from Landsat data and shoreline elevations from ICESat and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) for over 1300 lakes. The rise in water volume contained in the lakes corresponds to 4–25 mm a−1, when distributed over entire catchments, for the areas where we see glacier thickening. The precipitation increase is also visible in sparse in situ measurements and MERRA-2 climate reanalysis data but less visible in ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Taking into account evaporation loss, the difference between average annual precipitation during the 1990s and 2000s suggested by these datasets is 34–100 mm a−1, depending on region, which can fully explain both lake growth and glacier thickening (Kunlun Shan) or glacier geometry changes such as thinning tongues while upper glacier areas were thickening or stable (eastern TP). The precipitation increase reflected in these glacier changes possibly extended to the northern slopes of the Tarim Basin, where glaciers were nearly in balance in 2003–2008. Along the entire Himalaya, glaciers on the first orographic ridge, which are exposed to abundant precipitation, were thinning less than glaciers in the dryer climate of the inner ranges. Thinning rates in the Tien Shan vary spatially but are rather stronger than in other parts of HMA

One Decade of Glacier Mass Changes on the Tibetan Plateau Derived from Multisensoral Remote Sensing Data

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) with an average altitude of 4,500 meters above sea level is characterized by many glaciers and ice caps. Glaciers are a natural indicator for climate variability in this high mountain environment where meteorological stations are rare or non-existent. In addition, the melt water released from the Tibetan glaciers is feeding the headwaters of the major Asian river systems and contributes to the rising levels of endorheic lakes on the plateau. As many people directly rely on the glacier melt water a continuous glacier monitoring program is necessary in this region. In situ measurements of glaciers are important, but are spatial limited due to large logistical efforts, physical constrains and high costs. Remote sensing techniques can overcome this gap and are suitable to complement in situ measurements on a larger scale. In the last decade several remote sensing studies dealt with areal changes of glaciers on the TP. However, glacier area changes only provide a delayed signal to a changing climate and the amount of melt water released from the glaciers cannot be quantified. Therefore it is important to measure the glacier mass balance. In order to estimate glacier mass balances and their spatial differences on the TP, several remote sensing techniques and sensors were synthesized in this thesis. In a first study data from the Ice Cloud and Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission were employed. ICESat was in orbit between 2003 and 2009 and carried a laser altimeter which recorded highly accurate surface elevation measurements. As in mid-latitudes these measurements are rather sparse glaciers on the TP were grouped into eight climatological homogeneous sub-regions in order to perform a statistical sound analysis of glacier elevation changes. To assess surface elevation changes of a single mountain glacier from ICESat data, an adequate spatial sampling of ICESat measurements need to be present. This is the case for the Grosser Aletschgletscher, located in the Swiss Alps which served as a test site in this thesis. In another study data from the current TanDEM-X satellite mission and from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) conducted in February 2000 were employed to calculate glacier elevation changes. In a co-authored study, these estimates could be compared with glacier elevation changes obtained from the current French Pléiades satellite mission. In order to calculate glacier mass balances, the derived elevation changes were combined with assumptions about glacier area and ice density in all studies. In this thesis contrasting patterns of glacier mass changes were found on the TP. With an ICESat derived estimate of -15.6±10.1 Gt/a between 2003 and 2009 the average glacier mass balance on the TP was clearly negative. However, some glaciers in the central and north-western part of the TP showed a neutral mass balance or a slightly positive anomaly which was also confirmed by data from the current TanDEM-X satellite mission. A possible explanation of this anomaly in mass balance could be a compensation of the temperature driven glacier melt due to an increase in precipitation

Advancing the understanding for hydro-climatic controls on water balance and lake-level variability in the Tibetan Plateau: Hydrological modeling in data-scarce lake basins integrating multi-source data

The contrasting patterns of lake-level changes across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are indicators of differences in the water balance over the TP. However, little is known about the key hydrological factors controlling this variability. The purpose of this study was to contribute to a more quantitative understanding of these factors for four selected lakes in the southern-central part of the TP: Nam Co and Tangra Yumco (increasing water levels), and Mapam Yumco and Paiku Co (stable or slightly decreasing water levels). Therefore, an integrated approach combining hydrological modeling, atmospheric-model output and remote-sensing data was developed. The J2000g hydrological model was adapted and extended according to the specific characteristics of closed-lake basins on the TP and driven with High Asia Refined analysis (HAR) data at 10 km resolution for the period 2001–2010. Differences in the mean annual water balances among the four basins are primarily related to higher precipitation totals and attributed runoff generation in the Nam Co and Tangra Yumco basins. Precipitation and associated runoff are the main driving forces for inter-annual lake variations. The glacier-meltwater contribution to the total basin runoff volume (between 14 and 30% averaged over the 10-year period) plays a less important role compared to runoff generation from rainfall and snowmelt in non-glacierized land areas. These results highlight the benefits of linking hydrological modeling with atmospheric-model output and satellite-derived data in regions where observation data are scarce, and the developed approach can be readily transferred to other data-scarce closed-lake basins, opening new directions of research

Regional water balance analysis of glacierised river basins in the north-eastern Himalaya applying the J2000 hydrological model

The glacierised basins of the Northeast Himalayan region are highly vulnerable to climate-change impacts. The spatio-temporal hydroclimatic and physiographic variability impact the water balance of these glacierised basins across the region. This study assesses the glaciohydrological processes and dynamics in the data scarce region for the present as well future climate change scenarios by regional water balance analysis. The J2000 hydrological model was adapted to incorporate the frozen ground as well as glacier dynamics in a stepwise, nested basin calibration approach. The modelled ERA-Interim precipitation data cannot capture the high amplitude orographic and convective events. Therefore, Orographic correction factors were used to inversely correct the ERA-Interim precipitation data to account for the orographic as well as cyclonic precipitation in the region from reported glacier mass balance and evapotranspiration estimates. Monthly temperature lapse rate was adopted for correcting the ERA-Interim temperature dataset. The Beki basin was selected as the donor basin for model development and evaluation. The parameters from the Beki basin were regionalised to the receptor Lohit and the Noadihing basins by the Proxy-basin method. Multi-objective optimization criteria such as the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) for temporal dynamics and flow distribution and Bias for overall water balance showed high to moderate conformity between measured and simulated discharge at the corresponding basin outlets. The variability in the water balance and runoff components among the three basins was primarily related to the spatio-temporal variation in the mean annual precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration estimates. The impact of climate-change scenarios on the study basins indicated that water availability would sustain until the end of the century due to higher projected precipitation even though after the depletion of glaciers in the region

Characterising the evolution of Himalayan debris covered glaciers.

The majority of the 20,000 glaciers found in the Himalaya are in a state of negative mass balance, and have been for decades. Broad spatial trends in ice mass loss have been identified by large scale geodetic mass balance studies, but regional averaging of mass loss data has masked catchment or glacier scale variability. This thesis has the broad aim of examining the catchment scale variability of ice mass loss, in order to identify factors that might promote, or inhibit, more substantial ice mass loss from the region in the future. Ice mass loss rates from Everest region glaciers were calculated using the geodetic approach, over the period 2000-2015, and compared depending on glacier terminus type. Lake-terminating glaciers were found to have lost 32% more ice mass than land-terminating glaciers, and maximum surface lowering rates of lake-terminating glaciers peaked at more than twice the rate of land-terminating counterparts. Glacier hypsometry was found to be contrasting at the catchment scale, and predicted accumulation area ratio (AARs) change in response to different RCP warming scenarios emphasises the importance of considering glacier area-altitude distribution in future ice loss estimates. A more detailed assessment of the evolving geometry, dynamics and ice loss rates of nine lake-terminating glaciers suggested two phases of glacier-lake interaction may exist. A phase of dynamic lake-terminating glacier retreat was evident where terminus proximal surface lowering rates were high (up to 3 m a-1), ice front retreat rates were steady or accelerating, and surface velocities increased (by up to 10 m a-1, between 1999 and 2015). Alternatively, a phase of retreat typified by surface lowering rates akin to land-terminating glaciers (~1 m a-1), where ice front retreat rates were steady or diminishing, and where surface velocity reduction occurred. The dynamic phase of ice loss observed on lake-terminating glaciers in the Everest region is not of the same magnitude as larger waterter-minating glaciers found in other glacierised regions, probably because of the topographic confinement of host glaciers and the dominance of resistive stresses, but the now populous nature of glacial lakes in the region means the potential for amplified future ice loss exists. The impact of long-term ice loss on the topographic characteristics of debris covered glacier surfaces was also examined. Ice cliff and supraglacial pond expansion was identified as the main driver of topographic change on slow flowing, land-terminating glaciers. A more pitted surface topography of greater relief developed on most glaciers, which has implications for the energy balance at the glacier surface, and for supraglacial hydrology. Overall, the results of this thesis emphasise the need to incorporate a range of glacier dynamics scenarios and melt processes into simulations of future ice loss in the Himalaya

Comparison of sea-ice freeboard distributions from aircraft data and cryosat-2

The only remote sensing technique capable of obtain- ing sea-ice thickness on basin-scale are satellite altime- ter missions, such as the 2010 launched CryoSat-2. It is equipped with a Ku-Band radar altimeter, which mea- sures the height of the ice surface above the sea level. This method requires highly accurate range measure- ments. During the CryoSat Validation Experiment (Cry- oVEx) 2011 in the Lincoln Sea, Cryosat-2 underpasses were accomplished with two aircraft, which carried an airborne laser-scanner, a radar altimeter and an electro- magnetic induction device for direct sea-ice thickness re- trieval. Both aircraft flew in close formation at the same time of a CryoSat-2 overpass. This is a study about the comparison of the sea-ice freeboard and thickness dis- tribution of airborne validation and CryoSat-2 measure- ments within the multi-year sea-ice region of the Lincoln Sea in spring, with respect to the penetration of the Ku- Band signal into the snow