Contractors Perspective on the Selection of Innovative Sustainable Technologies for Achieving Zero Carbon Retail Buildings

The use of innovative sustainable technologies (IST) has been regarded as an effective approach to enhancing energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions of buildings. However, contractors face significant challenges in the selection of IST. The reported challenges in the literature include: lack of skills and knowledge, uncertainties, risks and the rapid development of a large number of technological alternatives and decision criteria. The selection process emerges as a multi-attribute, value-based task that includes both qualitative and quantitative factors, which are often assessed with imprecise data and human judgments. This paper aims to establish the decision criteria for the selection of IST for achieving low carbon existing retail buildings with a focus on the main contractor’s perspective. The arguments are informed by the combination of literature review and an in-depth case study with a UK leading contractor. Five broad decision criteria are identified systematically drawing on the contractor’s practice. The established criteria are weighted and ranked using the analytic hierarchy process and expert opinions; with ‘margin opportunity’ being the most important, followed by ‘repeat business’, ‘investment costs’, ‘differentiation’ and then ‘transferability’. The findings should facilitate the integration of various facets of the selection process and stimulate contractors to use IST

Application of a Multi-Criteria Integrated Portfolio Model for Quantifying South Africa’s Crude Oil Import Risk

e availability of secure energy resources at sustainable quantities and affordable prices is fundamental to South Africa’s current objective of enhancing and sustaining its current growth trajectory. Economic reforms, since the early 1990s, have led to the economy growing at an average rate of almost 5% per annum. A major consequence of this strong growth is the rapid increase in domestic demand for oil energy. With small amounts of proven oil reserves, the rise in oil demand as an essential energy source has prompted an increasing reliance on external sources for domestic crude oil supplies. High oil prices, the extent of proven oil reserves, instability in major oil producing regions and the rise in ‘oil-nationalism’ have raised serious concerns about the security of South Africa’s oil supplies. In this context, a comprehensive understanding of oil import security risks is critical as it will guide in the formulation of energy policy framework aimed at alleviating the impact of oil import risks. This study utilises portfolio theory to provide quantitative measures of systematic and specific risks of South Africa’s crude oil imports over the period 1994 to 2007. It explains the relationship between supply sources diversification and oil energy security risks, and highlights the impact of different crude oil import policy adjustment strategies on the total crude oil import risk for South Africa. The results for the adjustment strategies show that: (a) a policy of having the same quantity of oil imported every month or a constant quantity of oil imported from the supply regions reduces both systematic and specific risks of oil import portfolio, and (b) a reduction in specific risks of South Africa’s oil imports can be achieved if some of the Middle Eastern supplies can be diversified to less risk regions of Europe, North America and Russia.Oil Import Risks, Portfolio Theory, Analytical Hierarchy Process

Novel Methods for Multivariate Ordinal Data applied to Genetic Diplotypes, Genomic Pathways, Risk Profiles, and Pattern Similarity

Introduction: Conventional statistical methods for multivariate data (e.g., discriminant/regression) are based on the (generalized) linear model, i.e., the data are interpreted as points in a Euclidian space of independent dimensions. The dimensionality of the data is then reduced by assuming the components to be related by a specific function of known type (linear, exponential, etc.), which allows the distance of each point from a hyperspace to be determined. While mathematically elegant, these approaches may have shortcomings when applied to real world applications where the relative importance, the functional relationship, and the correlation among the variables tend to be unknown. Still, in many applications, each variable can be assumed to have at least an “orientation”, i.e., it can reasonably assumed that, if all other conditions are held constant, an increase in this variable is either “good” or “bad”. The direction of this orientation can be known or unknown. In genetics, for instance, having more “abnormal” alleles may increase the risk (or magnitude) of a disease phenotype. In genomics, the expression of several related genes may indicate disease activity. When screening for security risks, more indicators for atypical behavior may constitute raise more concern, in face or voice recognition, more indicators being similar may increase the likelihood of a person being identified. Methods: In 1998, we developed a nonparametric method for analyzing multivariate ordinal data to assess the overall risk of HIV infection based on different types of behavior or the overall protective effect of barrier methods against HIV infection. By using u-statistics, rather than the marginal likelihood, we were able to increase the computational efficiency of this approach by several orders of magnitude. Results: We applied this approach to assessing immunogenicity of a vaccination strategy in cancer patients. While discussing the pitfalls of the conventional methods for linking quantitative traits to haplotypes, we realized that this approach could be easily modified into to a statistically valid alternative to a previously proposed approaches. We have now begun to use the same methodology to correlate activity of anti-inflammatory drugs along genomic pathways with disease severity of psoriasis based on several clinical and histological characteristics. Conclusion: Multivariate ordinal data are frequently observed to assess semiquantitative characteristics, such as risk profiles (genetic, genomic, or security) or similarity of pattern (faces, voices, behaviors). The conventional methods require empirical validation, because the functions and weights chosen cannot be justified on theoretical grounds. The proposed statistical method for analyzing profiles of ordinal variables, is intrinsically valid. Since no additional assumptions need to be made, the often time-consuming empirical validation can be skipped.ranking; nonparametric; robust; scoring; multivariate

E-commerce development risk evaluation using MCDM techniques

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016. Electronic commerce (EC) development takes place in a complex and dynamic environment that includes high levels of risk and uncertainty. This paper proposes a new method for assessing the risks associated with EC development using multi-criteria decision-making techniques A model based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is proposed to assist EC project managers and decision makers in formalizing the types of thinking that are required in assessing the current risk environment of their EC development in a more systematic manner than previously. The solution includes the use of AHP for analyzing the problem structure and determining the weights of risk factors. The TOPSIS technique helps to obtain a final ranking among projects, and the results of an evaluation show the usefulness performance of the method

Интегральная оценка системной эффективности экономической безопасности предприятия

In the conditions of intensification of modern globalization processes and scientific and technological progress, the negative influence of crisis phenomena on the development of entrepreneurial activity is observed. The modern business environment became a lot more difficult in comparison with previous years, resulting in new threats and risks, in addition to new opportunities. Under these conditions, in order to achieve the desired economic result, it is very important to correctly assess the economic situation for timely detection of possible negative trends and their neutralization. In view of this, increased attention should be paid to assessing the level of their own economic security of enterprises. This confirms the relevance of the choice of methodological approaches to assessing the systemic efficiency of economic security of enterprises in order to ensure their stable functioning under uncertainty. In order to understand the success of any system, a necessary condition is the use of a certain criterion, which demonstrates the degree of its adaptation to the conditions of the external and internal environment. Given the subject of this study - the system of economic security, we believe that such a criterion advisable to choose the systemic efficiency, which involves determining the effectiveness of the functioning of the selected functional components of the system. After all, it is believed that in the sixth technological way, the predominant concept of managing the economic activities of economic actors would be precisely efficiency management, instead of such topical processes as business management, production, market value of the enterprise, etc.В умовах активізації сучасних глобалізаційних процесів та науково-технічного прогресу спостерігається негативний вплив кризових явищ на розвиток підприємницької діяльності. Сучасне бізнес-середовище стало набагато складнішим у порівнянні з попередніми роками, в результаті чого, крім нових можливостей, мають місце нові загрози та ризики. За даних умов для досягнення бажаного економічного результату дуже важливо правильно оцінити економічну ситуацію для своєчасного виявлення можливих негативних тенденцій та їх нейтралізації. З огляду на це, підвищена увага має бути приділена питанням оцінки рівня власної економічної безпеки підприємств. Це підтверджує актуальність вибору методичних підходів до оцінки системної ефективності економічної безпеки підприємств з метою забезпечення їх стійкого функціонування в умовах невизначеності. З метою розуміння успішності функціонування будь-якої системи необхідною умовою є використання певного критерію, що демонструє ступінь її адаптації до умов зовнішнього та внутрішнього середовища. Враховуючи предмет даного дослідження – систему економічної безпеки, вважаємо, що таким критерієм доцільно обрати саме системну ефективність, що передбачає визначення ефективності функціонування обраних функціональних складових даної системи. Адже, існує думка, що в шостому технологічному укладі панівною концепцією управління господарською діяльністю економічних суб’єктів буде саме управління ефективністю, замість таких актуальних процесів як управління бізнесом, виробництвом, ринковою вартістю підприємства тощо.В условиях активизации современных глобализационных процессов и научно-технического прогресса наблюдается негативное влияние кризисных явлений на развитие предпринимательской деятельности. Современное бизнес-окружение стало намного сложнее по сравнению с предыдущими годами, в результате чего, помимо новых возможностей, имеют место новые угрозы и риски. При данных условиях для достижения желаемого экономического результата очень важно правильно оценить экономическую ситуацию для своевременного выявления возможных негативных тенденций и их нейтрализации. Учитывая это, повышенное внимание должно быть уделено вопросам оценки уровня экономической безопасности предприятий. Это подтверждает актуальность поиска методических подходов к оценке системной эффективности экономической безопасности предприятий с целью обеспечения их устойчивого функционирования в условиях неопределенности. С целью понимания успешности функционирования любой системы необходимым условием является использование определенного критерия, который демонстрирует степень ее адаптации к условиям внешней и внутренней среды. Учитывая предмет исследования - систему экономической безопасности, таким критерием целесообразно выбрать именно системную эффективность, что предполагает определение эффективности функционирования конкретных функциональных подсистем экономической безопасности предприятия. Это обусловлено тем, что в шестом технологическом укладе господствующей концепцией управления хозяйственной деятельностью экономических субъектов будет именно управление эффективностью, вместо таких актуальных процессов как управление бизнесом, производством, рыночной стоимостью предприятия и другими

Development, test and comparison of two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis(MCDA) models: A case of healthcare infrastructure location

When planning a new development, location decisions have always been a major issue. This paper examines and compares two modelling methods used to inform a healthcare infrastructure location decision. Two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) models were developed to support the optimisation of this decision-making process, within a National Health Service (NHS) organisation, in the UK. The proposed model structure is based on seven criteria (environment and safety, size, total cost, accessibility, design, risks and population profile) and 28 sub-criteria. First, Evidential Reasoning (ER) was used to solve the model, then, the processes and results were compared with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It was established that using ER or AHP led to the same solutions. However, the scores between the alternatives were significantly different; which impacted the stakeholders‟ decision-making. As the processes differ according to the model selected, ER or AHP, it is relevant to establish the practical and managerial implications for selecting one model or the other and providing evidence of which models best fit this specific environment. To achieve an optimum operational decision it is argued, in this study, that the most transparent and robust framework is achieved by merging ER process with the pair-wise comparison, an element of AHP. This paper makes a defined contribution by developing and examining the use of MCDA models, to rationalise new healthcare infrastructure location, with the proposed model to be used for future decision. Moreover, very few studies comparing different MCDA techniques were found, this study results enable practitioners to consider even further the modelling characteristics to ensure the development of a reliable framework, even if this means applying a hybrid approach

Multi-criteria decision support for drought security

The recently completed Lower Hunter Water Plan identified a portfolio of drought response measures to ensure that the region does not run out of water under severe drought conditions. A multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) process was developed to guide the assessment of the drought response options against multiple criteria (both quantitative and qualitative), and for the assembly and analysis of drought response portfolios. The process guided stakeholders in considering a wide range of alternative supply and demand side options, and allowed for the transparent trade-off between options or portfolios of options. The MCDA process integrated the assessment of social, environmental and risk/resilience criteria with cost effectiveness analysis. The process also included the analysis of contextual uncertainties and risk to determine the flexibility of the options under different future situations. The outcome of this process revealed a portfolio of drought response options that best met the weighted critieria and satisfied the drought response objectives

Risk assessment of blasting operations in open pit mines using FAHP method

Purpose. In the mining blasting operation, fragmentation is the most important output. Fly rock, ground vibration, air blast, and environmental effects are detrimental effects of blasting operations. Identifying and ranking the risk of blasting operations is considered as the most important stage in project management. Methods. In this research, the problem of identifying and ranking the factors constituting the risk in blasting operations is considered with the methodology of the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Criteria and sub-criteria have been determined based on historical research studies, field studies, and expert opinions for designing a hierarchical process. Findings. Based on FAHP scores, non-control of the sub-criterion of health and safety (C3), blast operation results (C18) and knowledge, and skill and staffing (C2) with a score of 0.377, 0.334, and 0.294 respectively are the most effective sub-criterion for the creation of blasting operations risk. According to the score, the sub-criterion C18 is the most effective sub-criterion in providing the blasting operations risk. Effects and results of blasting operations (D8), with a score of 0.334 as the most effective criterion, and natural hazards (D10), with a score of 0.015, were the last priorities in the factors causing blasting operations risk. Originality. Regarding the risk rating of blasting operations, the control of the sub-criteria C3, C18, and C2, and the D8 criterion, is of particular importance in reducing the risk of blasting operations and improving project management. Practical implications. The evaluation of human resource performance and increase in the level of knowledge and skills and occupational safety and control of all outputs of blasting operations is necessary. Therefore, selecting the most important project risks and taking actions to remove them is essential for risk management.Мета. Визначення ризиків проведення вибухових робіт та їх оцінка на основі використанням нечіткого методу аналізу ієрархій (НМАІ) для покращення управління якістю проектів. Методика. В рамках даного дослідження, проблеми визначення та оцінки ризиків вибухових робіт розглядалися із застосуванням нечіткого методу аналізу ієрархій. На базі аналізу історичних даних і польового дослідження з урахуванням експертних оцінок були визначені критерії та підкритерії для побудови ієрархій. Результати. За результатами НМАІ, неконтролюючий підкритерій здоров’я та безпеки (С3), підкритерій результатів вибухових робіт (С18), знань, умінь і кадрів (С2) зі значеннями 0.377, 0.334 і 0.294 відповідно найбільш ефективні в появі ризику проведення вибухових робіт. Підкритерій С18 чинить найбільший вплив на ризик проведення вибухових робіт. Критерій результатів і наслідків вибухових робіт (D8) з найефективнішим значенням 0.334 та критерій природних катастроф (D10) зі значенням 0.015 є останніми пріоритетами серед чинників, які визначають ризик проведення вибухових робіт. Наукова новизна. Отримав доповнення та подальший розвиток науково-методичний підхід до визначення ризиків при проведенні вибухових робіт, заснований на їх ранжуванні з використанням системи виявлених критеріїв і підкритеріїв методом НМАІ. Практична значимість. Для успішного керування проектом важливо визначати найсерйозніші ризики проекту й вжити заходів щодо їх усунення. Відносно ранжирування ризиків проведення вибухових робіт управління підкритеріями C3, C18 і C2, а також критерієм D8, особливо важливо для зниження цих ризиків та покращення якості управління проектом.Цель. Определение рисков проведения взрывных работ и их оценка на основе использования нечеткого метода анализа иерархий (НМАИ) для улучшения управления качеством проектов. Методика. В рамках данного исследования, проблемы определения и оценки рисков взрывных работ рассматривались с применением нечеткого метода анализа иерархий. На базе анализа исторических данных и полевого исследования с учетом экспертных оценок были определены, критерии и подкритерии для построения иерархий. Результаты. По результатам НМАИ, неконтролирующий подкритерий здоровья и безопасности (С3), подкритерий результатов взрывных работ (С18), знаний, умений и кадров (С2) со значениями 0.377, 0.334 и 0.294 соответственно наиболее эффективны в появлении риска проведения взрывных работ. Подкритерий С18 оказывает самое большое влияние на риск проведения взрывных работ. Критерий результатов и последствий взрывных работ (D8) с самым эффективным значением 0.334 и критерий природных катастроф (D10) со значением 0.015 являются последними приоритетами среди факторов, которые определяют риск проведения взрывных работ. Научная новизна. Получил дополнение и дальнейшее развитие научно-методический подход к определению рисков при проведении взрывных работ, основанный на их ранжировании с использованием системы выявленных критериев и подкритериев методом НМАИ. Практическая значимость. Для успешного руководства проектом важно определять самые серьезные риски проекта и предпринять действия по их устранению. В отношении ранжирования рисков проведения взрывных работ управление подкритериями C3, C18 и C2, а также критерием D8, особенно важно для снижения этих рисков и улучшения руководства проектом.The authors would like to thank Mining Engineering Department, Islamic Azad University (South Tehran Branch) for supporting this research

A multi-criteria sustainability assessment for biodiesel and liquefied natural gas as alternative fuels in transport systems

The incorporation of clean-fuel technologies has become essential for the sustainability of the transportation sector. Natural gas technology, especially the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG), has become a possible alternative to diesel oil in freight transport because of its acceptable autonomy and low fuel prices. For the introduction of this alternative fuel, freight companies need tools that allow them to perform an integrated assessment of relevant aspects related to environment, economy and social responsibility. This paper introduces a multi-criteria based methodology that integrates the key factors involved in the transport system: vehicles, infrastructure and fuels, and consideration of the three pillars of sustainability, as well as the reliability of technology, legislation and market issues. In particular, a case study for the impact assessment of LNG in comparison to hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and diesel oil as regular long-haul freight transport fuels in Spain was developed. The information for the comparison process was obtained from peer-reviewed articles and reports from international and Spanish institutions, while the primary data was obtained through semi-structured in-depth interviews to the different stakeholders. A weighted sustainability index for each alternative was developed to integrate the data obtained through the analytic hierarchy process. The results indicate that LNG trucks would be an attractive option compared to diesel oil and HVO, provided that decision-makers give significant weight to social and environmental criteria, and that the government guarantees a legislative security to maintain the low taxes on natural gas. Integration of stakeholders allows making the most appropriate decision according to the objectives of the company. The application of the proposed methodology shows consistent results, which should ensure the success of a long-term alternative in the dynamic market for transportation fuels