History and Mathematics: Political Demography and Global Ageing

Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography the issue of global ageing becomes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to take into account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in the number of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small historical period. The concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present volume of the Yearbook (which is the fifth in the series) is subtitled ‘Political Demography & Global Ageing’. It brings together a number of interesting articles by scholars from Europe, Asia, and America. They examine global ageing from a variety of perspectives. This issue of the Yearbook consists of two main sections: (I) Aspects of Political Demography; (II) Facing Population Ageing. We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences

Evaluating Growth Slowdowns: Does Middle-Income Trap Exist?

Growth theories suggest that the factors affecting growth at low-income and high-income countries can be different. If countries struggle to graduate to high-income growth strategies, they may find themselves stuck at some middle-income level. This phenomenon can be termed as middle-income trap . Using a panel of 145 countries over a period of 55 years, this study attempts to identify the existence of middle-income trap and its determinants. The aim of this study is to inspect whether the countries really get stuck at middle-income levels and if so, then pinpoint the factors associated with growth slowdowns. By employing panel probit estimations, this study has found evidence of the existence of middle-income trap. Most of the middle-income countries are sticky to their income levels and failed to make the additional leap necessary to achieve a high-income status. The study has identified the crucial factors associated with growth slowdowns and compared whether these factors in middle-income countries are any different than the low and high income countries. The results were validated using Bayesian Models and the findings suggest that the determinants of growth at middle and high income levels differ and middle income countries do need to change growth strategies to move smoothly to the high-income status. The recent anxiety over the issue of middle-income trap is not unfounded and this study affirms that the existing policies that have enabled few low-income counties to grow to middle income countries are not sufficient for transitioning to a high-income level. Middle-income countries need growth policies that are aimed at strong and sustained growth to help them to graduate to high-income status eventually

Evaluating Growth Slowdowns: Does Middle-Income Trap Exist?

Growth theories suggest that the factors affecting growth at low-income and high-income countries can be different. If countries struggle to graduate to high-income growth strategies, they may find themselves stuck at some middle-income level. This phenomenon can be termed as middle-income trap . Using a panel of 145 countries over a period of 55 years, this study attempts to identify the existence of middle-income trap and its determinants. The aim of this study is to inspect whether the countries really get stuck at middle-income levels and if so, then pinpoint the factors associated with growth slowdowns. By employing panel probit estimations, this study has found evidence of the existence of middle-income trap. Most of the middle-income countries are sticky to their income levels and failed to make the additional leap necessary to achieve a high-income status. The study has identified the crucial factors associated with growth slowdowns and compared whether these factors in middle-income countries are any different than the low and high income countries. The results were validated using Bayesian Models and the findings suggest that the determinants of growth at middle and high income levels differ and middle income countries do need to change growth strategies to move smoothly to the high-income status. The recent anxiety over the issue of middle-income trap is not unfounded and this study affirms that the existing policies that have enabled few low-income counties to grow to middle income countries are not sufficient for transitioning to a high-income level. Middle-income countries need growth policies that are aimed at strong and sustained growth to help them to graduate to high-income status eventually

Interannual Dynamics of Ice Cliff Populations on Debris‐Covered Glaciers from Remote Sensing Observations and Stochastic Modeling

Ice cliffs are common on debris-covered glaciers and have relatively high melt rates due to their direct exposure to incoming radiation. Previous studies have shown that their number and relative area can change considerably from year to year, but this variability has not been explored, in part because available cliff observations are irregular. Here, we systematically mapped and tracked ice cliffs across four debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia for every late ablation season from 2009 to 2019 using high-resolution multi-spectral satellite imagery. We then quantified the processes occurring at the feature scale to train a stochastic birth-death model to represent the cliff population dynamics. Our results show that while the cliff relative area can change by up to 20% from year to year, the natural long-term variability is constrained, thus defining a glacier-specific cliff carrying capacity. In a subsequent step, the inclusion of external drivers related to climate, glacier dynamics and hydrology highlights the influence of these variables on the cliff population dynamics, which is usually not a direct one due to the complexity and interdependence of the processes taking place at the glacier surface. In some extreme cases (here, a glacier surge), these external drivers may lead to a reorganization of the cliffs at the glacier surface and a change in the natural variability. These results have implications for the melt of debris-covered glaciers, in addition to showing the high rate of changes at their surface and highlighting some of the links between cliff population and glacier state

Cultural Discourse in Taiwan. Ed. Chin-Chuan Cheng, I-Chun Wang, and Steven Tötösy de Zepetnek.

The collected volume Cultural Discourse in Taiwan — edited by Chin-Chuan Cheng, I-Chun Wang, and Steven Tötösy de Zepetnek and published by National Sun Yat-sen Uiniversity Press in 2009 — is intended as an addition to scholarship in the field of Taiwan Studies. The articles in the volume are in many aspects comparative and the topics discussed are in the context of literary and culture scholarship. At the same time, the volume is interdisciplinary as the articles cover historical perspectives, analyses of texts by Taiwan authors, and cultural discourse as related to Taiwan consciousness, language, and linguistic issues. Copyright release to the authors

From authoritarian dirty war to neoliberal, \u27democratic\u27 class war neoliberalism as class struggle in Argentina

This paper is a critical analysis of the theoretical assertions made, made by David Harvey and others, that neoliberalism is the ideological foundation for a one-sided, class-based struggle intended to restore or reconstruct the power of economic elites. Tracing neoliberalism back to its roots in the Austrian School of economics, I analyze the historical development of neoliberal theory and its critics. I show that it provides theoretical justification for elite class struggle. This theoretical argument is then grounded in a case study of Argentina\u27s period of neoliberal reforms. In the case of Argentina, I show that this process was one that can be classified as class-based social change. I examine how neoliberal reforms were instituted; including how they were implemented at various levels of society, how they were received, and whether they benefited elite groups at the expense of the rest of society. The intent is to create a coherent narrative of the transition to neoliberalization and then, to the period after 2001, when neoliberal reforms were largely stopped. The reforms that I study are 1) privatization of industry and services controlled by the government, 2) fiscal austerity in the form of decreased government employment and spending on social services, 3) financial and labor deregulation, and 4) trade liberalization in the form of decreased tariffs on imports. The way in which neoliberal reforms were implemented, as well as the effects they had (and continue to have) on society affect the quality (i.e. depth and breadth) of democracy in Argentina

The problem with environmental security: challenging the either/or approach of national versus human security in the context of the Mekong River Basin

One of the most important ideas to emerge from security studies in the past forty years is the field of research known as ‘environmental security studies’ (ESS). It has not, however, had the impact on security studies in general that it might have expected to – given the growing concerns regarding the scale and pace of environmental changes in the 20th and 21st centuries. This thesis therefore firstly seeks to understand the nature of ESS, asking whether ESS has a central theoretical core that enables it to analyse the links between the environment and security. The research shows that the ESS literature does not have a central tenet, nor a united epistemological or methodological approach. The second area of research therefore asks if there is a common theme that can be discerned within the literature. Research indicates that there is a way of understanding ESS in a more coherent fashion in that the majority of ESS scholars endeavour to comprehend the systemic security impact of environmental processes. The problem is that there is no analytical bridge between the environment, the state and the individual. This thesis therefore forwards a unique approach that argues that rather than the current either state-centric or a human security approach to ESS, it must be understood as a combination of both. This approach is termed “Systemic Environmental Security” (SES). SES is an analytical framework that takes into account the way that environmental processes give rise to both state security and human security concerns simultaneously. The thesis finally explores the unique insights provided by SES. This is achieved through a relevant case study of the Mekong River Basin. It is hoped that these unique insights provided by Systemic Environmental Security can be applied in a range of contexts, providing clearer conceptualisations of the complex relationship between security and the environment

The problem with environmental security: challenging the either/or approach of national versus human security in the context of the Mekong River Basin

One of the most important ideas to emerge from security studies in the past forty years is the field of research known as ‘environmental security studies’ (ESS). It has not, however, had the impact on security studies in general that it might have expected to – given the growing concerns regarding the scale and pace of environmental changes in the 20th and 21st centuries. This thesis therefore firstly seeks to understand the nature of ESS, asking whether ESS has a central theoretical core that enables it to analyse the links between the environment and security. The research shows that the ESS literature does not have a central tenet, nor a united epistemological or methodological approach. The second area of research therefore asks if there is a common theme that can be discerned within the literature. Research indicates that there is a way of understanding ESS in a more coherent fashion in that the majority of ESS scholars endeavour to comprehend the systemic security impact of environmental processes. The problem is that there is no analytical bridge between the environment, the state and the individual. This thesis therefore forwards a unique approach that argues that rather than the current either state-centric or a human security approach to ESS, it must be understood as a combination of both. This approach is termed “Systemic Environmental Security” (SES). SES is an analytical framework that takes into account the way that environmental processes give rise to both state security and human security concerns simultaneously. The thesis finally explores the unique insights provided by SES. This is achieved through a relevant case study of the Mekong River Basin. It is hoped that these unique insights provided by Systemic Environmental Security can be applied in a range of contexts, providing clearer conceptualisations of the complex relationship between security and the environment

Dragon Tourism in Komodo National Park, Indonesia: Its Contribution to Conservation & Local Development

Tourism is the world's largest industry and is widely promoted as a panacea for sustainable development in developing countries. Nature tourism to protected areas is viewed as an ecologically sustainable means to offset the costs of annexation for governments and local communities. The rapid development of 'ecotourism' as a benign and beneficial form of nature tourism has occured with little examination of its true impact. This study adopted a multi-disciplinary approach to examine whether nature tourism based on Komodo National Park (KNP), Indonesia, conformed to the accepted definition of ecotourism as ecologically, economically and socially sustainable at a local level. It also examined whether different types of tourist have different impacts on conservation and local development. The findings suggest that tourism to KNP does not achieve the ideals of ecotourism. Although ecological disturbance was minimal, the financial contribution to conservation barely offset the costs of tourism for KNP, and could be substantially increased by raising entrance and other fees. Contributions to the local economy were small relative to total expenditure on visits to KNP, and benefits accruing to village communities within KNP, which bear the greatest opportunity costs, were negligible. Independent tourists contributed the most to the local economy, whilst package tourists contributed very little. Cruise passengers, the most affluent visitors to KNP, contributed virtually nothing due to the enclave nature of cruise operations. The limitations of current tourism development in and around KNP reflect traditional patterns of tourism evolution rather than a reorientation towards ecotourism. Continued evaluation will be necessary to ensure that future development adheres to sustainable principles. This study has provided a template for rapid, cost effective evaluations of nature-based tourism which could be implemented elsewhere