Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics

This paper argues that macro models should be as simple as possible, but not more so. Existing models are “more so” by far. It is time for the science of macro to step beyond representative agent, DSGE models and focus more on alternative heterogeneous agent macro models that take agent interaction, complexity, coordination problems and endogenous learning seriously. It further argues that as analytic work on these scientific models continues, policy-relevant models should be more empirically based; policy researchers should not approach the data with theoretical blinders on; instead, they should follow an engineering approach to policy analysis and let the data guide their choice of the relevant theory to apply.

Changing guards: time to move beyond Body Mass Index for population monitoring of excess adiposity

With the obesity epidemic, and the effects of aging populations, human phenotypes have changed over two generations, possibly more dramatically than in other species previously. As obesity is an important and growing hazard for population health, we recommend a systematic evaluation of the optimal measure(s) for population-level excess body fat. Ideal measure(s) for monitoring body composition and obesity should be simple, as accurate and sensitive as possible, and provide good categorisation of related health risks. Combinations of anthropometric markers or predictive equations may facilitate better use of anthropometric data than single measures to estimate body composition for populations. Here we provide new evidence that increasing proportions of aging populations are at high health-risk according to waist circumference, but not body mass index (BMI), so continued use of BMI as the principal population-level measure substantially underestimates the health-burden from excess adiposity

Cutting A Pie Is Not A Piece Of Cake

Is there a division among n players of a cake using n-1 parallel vertical cuts, or of a pie using n radial cuts, that is envy-free (each player thinks he or she receives a largest piece and so does not envy another player) and undominated (there is no other allocation as good for all players and better for at least one)? David Gale first asked this question for pies. We provide complete answers for both cakes and pies. The answers depend on the number of players (two versus three or more players) and whether the players' preferences satisfy certain continuity assumptions. We also give some simple algorithms for cutting a pie when there are two or more players, but these algorithms do not guarantee all the properties one might desire in a division, which makes pie-cutting harder than cake-cutting. We suggest possible applications and conclude with two open questions

Research assessment in the humanities: problems and challenges

Research assessment is going to play a new role in the governance of universities and research institutions. Evaluation of results is evolving from a simple tool for resource allocation towards policy design. In this respect "measuring" implies a different approach to quantitative aspects as well as to an estimation of qualitative criteria that are difficult to define. Bibliometrics became so popular, in spite of its limits, just offering a simple solution to complex problems. The theory behind it is not so robust but available results confirm this method as a reasonable trade off between costs and benefits. Indeed there are some fields of science where quantitative indicators are very difficult to apply due to the lack of databases and data, in few words the credibility of existing information. Humanities and social sciences (HSS) need a coherent methodology to assess research outputs but current projects are not very convincing. The possibility of creating a shared ranking of journals by the value of their contents at either institutional, national or European level is not enough as it is raising the same bias as in the hard sciences and it does not solve the problem of the various types of outputs and the different, much longer time of creation and dissemination. The web (and web 2.0) represents a revolution in the communication of research results mainly in the HSS, and also their evaluation has to take into account this change. Furthermore, the increase of open access initiatives (green and gold road) offers a large quantity of transparent, verifiable data structured according to international standards that allow comparability beyond national limits and above all is independent from commercial agents. The pilot scheme carried out at the university of Milan for the Faculty of Humanities demonstrated that it is possible to build quantitative, on average more robust indicators, that could provide a proxy of research production and productiivity even in the HSS

Cutting a pie is not a piece of cake

Is there a division among n players of a cake using n-1 parallel vertical cuts, or of a pie using n radial cuts, that is envy-free (each player thinks he or she receives a largest piece and so does not envy another player) and undominated (there is no other allocation as good for all players and better for at least one)? David Gale first asked this question for pies. We provide complete answers for both cakes and pies. The answers depend on the number of players (two versus three or more players) and whether the players' preferences satisfy certain continuity assumptions. We also give some simple algorithms for cutting a pie when there are two or more players, but these algorithms do not guarantee all the properties one might desire in a division, which makes pie-cutting harder than cake-cutting. We suggest possible applications and conclude with two open questions.Fair division; cake-cutting; pie-cutting; divisible good; envy-freeness; allocative efficiency

Clairvoyance in cats: or eight good reasons to publish before writing up your thesis

After a hard day testing participants and worrying about how to analyze the data, the last thing most of us want to think about is generating more work. Here we are, wanting to make the process of becoming “Dr X” as short as possible. Surely a straight line is the shortest distance between two points? Yet sometimes things are not so simple. It could seem like a diversion of time and effort from the direct path to a PhD, but writing up findings for journal publication can bring a lot of benefits

Reducing Poverty in California…Permanently

If California were to seriously commit to equalizing opportunity and reducing poverty, how might that commitment best be realized? This is of course a hypothetical question, as there is no evidence that California is poised to make such a serious commitment, nor have many other states gone much beyond the usual lip-service proclamations. There are many reasons for California’s complacency, but an important one is that most people think that poverty is intractable and that viable solutions to it simply don’t exist. When Californians know what needs to be done, they tend to go forward and get it done. When, for example, the state’s roads are in disrepair, there are rarely paralyzing debates about exactly how to go about fixing them; instead we proceed with the needed repairs as soon as the funds to do so are appropriated. The same type of sure and certain prescription might appear to be unavailable when it comes to reducing poverty. It is hard not to be overwhelmed by the cacophony of voices yielding a thick stream of narrow-gauge interventions, new evaluations, and piecemeal proposals.1 Although the research literature on poverty is indeed large and may seem confusing, recent advances have in fact been so fundamental that it is now possible to develop a science-based response to poverty. In the past, the causes of poverty were not well understood, and major interventions, such as the War on Poverty, had to be built more on hunch than science. It is an altogether different matter now. The causes of poverty are well established, and the effects of many possible policy responses to poverty are likewise well established. The simple purpose of this essay is to assemble these advances into a coherent plan that would, if implemented, reduce poverty in California substantially

Tree Fruits for Alaska

This circular has been prepared with three major objectives in mind. 1) to define areas in which tree fruit culture is possible in Alaska and the types of fruit that can be grown in each, 2) to name and describe the varieties that at the present time seem more desirable for planting in Alaska, and 3) to point out the m?-in problems limiting tree fruit culture and suggest, rather than discuss, the probable means by which they may one day be solved. Fulfilling the first two of these objectives was a relatively simple matter, since it was only a matter of defining and description. But the third objective was not-and is not-so easy of attainment. In what may be an oversimplification, it has been stated that there are two main problems, winter hardiness and earliness of maturity, and methods have been indicated by which, it is believed, each may be overcome. However the very problems themselves are not as simple as they have been made to appear. That of winter hardiness is one of the most widely debated and investigated subject in plant science. And the characterization of the second as "earliness of maturity" makes it sound too simple, for actually the factor involved, as it applies to fruit growing in Alaska is aiding or hastening natural earliness of maturity. This is a far more complex matter. In describing the solutions of these problems, mention has been made of such factors as pruning and training, fertilization, furnishing protection to increase available heat, and limiting the water supply to the trees during the period of fruit maturation. Each of these subjects has also been the subject of numerous investigations and some of them have been the subject of textbooks. The discussion of them here has been limited to simple statements as to their merit in achieving specific objectives. Most of the statements made are based on research in Alaska. In one particular, however, they have knowingly been extended beyond the domain of research-supported conclusion. This is in advocating the withholding Qr decreasing water available to the trees during the maturation of the fruit. Some will disagree with this recommendation, for it runs counter to what is considered good orchard management in commercial fruit producing regions of the world. In these an ample water supply is advocated for this period to increase fruit size and heighten, though not to increase, coloration. In Alaska both considerations should be waived in favor of obtaining reasonable yields of fruit, suitable for culinary purposes.In all three regions of Alaska where tree fruit production is at all possible, lack of winter hardiness in the trees and failure of fruit to mature properly are the two chief limiting factors