Multilayered feed forward Artificial Neural Network model to predict the average summer-monsoon rainfall in India

In the present research, possibility of predicting average summer-monsoon rainfall over India has been analyzed through Artificial Neural Network models. In formulating the Artificial Neural Network based predictive model, three layered networks have been constructed with sigmoid non-linearity. The models under study are different in the number of hidden neurons. After a thorough training and test procedure, neural net with three nodes in the hidden layer is found to be the best predictive model.Comment: 19 pages, 1 table, 3 figure

Insurability Challenges Under Uncertainty: An Attempt to Use the Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Losses from Natural Disasters

The main difficulty for natural disaster insurance derives from the uncertainty of an event’s damages. Insurers cannot precisely appreciate the weight of natural hazards because of risk dependences. Insurability under uncertainty first requires an accurate assessment of entire damages. Insured and insurers both win when premiums calculate risk properly. In such cases, coverage will be available and affordable. Using the artificial neural network – a technique rooted in artificial intelligence - insurers can predict annual natural disaster losses. There are many types of artificial neural network models. In this paper we use the multilayer perceptron neural network, the most accommodated to the prediction task. In fact, if we provide the natural disaster explanatory variables to the developed neural network, it calculates perfectly the potential annual losses for the studied country.Natural disaster losses, Insurability, Uncertainty, Multilayer perceptron neural network, Prediction.

PREDICTION OF CROP YIELDS ACROSS FOUR CLIMATE ZONES IN GERMANY: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH

This paper shows the ability of artificial neural network technology to be used for the approximation and prediction of crop yields at rural district and federal state scales in different climate zones based on reported daily weather data. The method may later be used to construct regional time series of agricultural output under climate change, based on the highly resolved output of the global circulation models and regional models. Three 30-year combined historical data sets of rural district yields (oats, spring barley and silage maize), daily temperatures (mean, maximum, dewpoint) and precipitation were constructed. They were used with artificial neural network technology to investigate, simulate and predict historical time series of crop yields in four climate zones of Germany. Final neural networks, trained with data sets of three climate zones and tested against an independent northern zone, have high predictive power (0.83global change, agriculture, artificial neural networks, yield prediction

SIR: A New Wireless Sensor Network Routing Protocol Based on Artificial Intelligence

Currently, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are formed by hundreds of low energy and low cost micro-electro-mechanical systems. Routing and low power consumption have become important research issues to interconnect this kind of networks. However, conventional Quality of Service routing models, are not suitable for ad hoc sensor networks, due to the dynamic nature of such systems. This paper introduces a new QoS-driven routing algorithm, named SIR: Sensor Intelligence Routing. We have designed an artificial neural network based on Kohonen self organizing features map. Every node implements this artificial neural network forming a distributed intelligence and ubiquitous computing system

Artificial neural networks in geospatial analysis

Artificial neural networks are computational models widely used in geospatial analysis for data classification, change detection, clustering, function approximation, and forecasting or prediction. There are many types of neural networks based on learning paradigm and network architectures. Their use is expected to grow with increasing availability of massive data from remote sensing and mobile platforms

Artificial Neural Networks in Finance Modelling

The study of Artificial Neural Networks derives from first trials to translate in mathematical models the principles of biological “processing”. An Artificial Neural Network deals with generating, in the fastest times, an implicit and predictive model of the evolution of a system. In particular, it derives from experience its ability to be able to recognize some behaviours or situations and to “suggest” how to take them into account. This work illustrates an approach to the use of Artificial Neural Networks for Financial Modelling; we aim to explore the structural differences (and implications) between one- and multi- agent and population models. In one-population models, ANNs are involved as forecasting devices with wealth-maximizing agents (in which agents make decisions so as to achieve an utility maximization following non- linear models to do forecasting), while in multi-population models agents do not follow predetermined rules, but tend to create their own behavioural rules as market data are collected. In particular, it is important to analyze diversities between one-agent and one-population models; in fact, in building one-population model it is possible to illustrate the market equilibrium endogenously, which is not possible in one-agent model where all the environmental characteristics are taken as given and beyond the control of the single agent. A particular application we aim to study is the one regarding “customer profiling”, in which (based on personal and direct relationships) the “buying” behaviour of each customer can be defined, making use of behavioural inference models such as the ones offered by Artificial Neural Networks much better than traditional statistical methodologies.Artificial Neural Network, Financial Modelling, Customer Profiling