Managing Epistemic Uncertainties in the Underlying Models of Safety Assessment for Safety-Critical Systems

When conducting safety assessment for safety-critical systems, epistemic uncertainty is an ever-present challenge when reasoning about the safety concerns and causal relationships related to hazards. Uncertainty around this causation thus needs to be managed well. Unfortunately, existing safety assessment tends to ignore unknown uncertainties, and stakeholders rarely track known uncertainties well through the system lifecycle. In this thesis, an approach is described for managing epistemic uncertainties about the system and safety causal models that are applied in a safety assessment. First, the principles that define the requirements for the approach are introduced. Next, these principles are used to construct three distinct steps that constitute an approach to manage such uncertainties. These three steps involve identifying, documenting and tracking the uncertainties throughout the system lifecycle so as to enable intervention to address the uncertainties. The approach is evaluated by integrating it with two existing safety assessment techniques, one using models from a system viewpoint and the other with models from a component viewpoint. This approach is also evaluated through peer reviews, semi-structured interviews with practitioners, and by review against requirements derived from the principles. Based on the evaluation results, it is plausible that our approach can provide a feasible and systematic way to manage epistemic uncertainties in safety assessment for safety-critical systems

Organizing risk: organization and management theory for the risk society

Risk has become a crucial part of organizing, affecting a wide range of organizations in all sectors. We identify, review and integrate diverse literatures relevant to organizing risk, building on an existing framework that describes how risk is organized in three ‘modes’ – prospectively, in real-time, and retrospectively. We then identify three critical issues in the existing literature: its fragmented nature; its neglect of the tensions associated with each of the modes; and its tendency to assume that the meaning of an object in relation to risk is singular and stable. We provide a series of new insights with regard to each of these issues. First, we develop the concept of a risk cycle that shows how organizations engage with all three modes and transition between them over time. Second, we explain why the tensions have been largely ignored and show how studies using a risk work perspective can provide further insights into them. Third, we develop the concept of risk translation to highlight the ways in the meanings of risks can be transformed and to identify the political consequences of such translations. We conclude the paper with a research agenda to elaborate these insights and ideas further

On the rationale of resilience in the domain of safety: A literature review

Resilience is becoming a prevalent agenda in safety research and organisational practice. In this study we examine how the peer-reviewed safety science literature (a) formulates the rationale behind the study of resilience; (b) constructs resilience as a scientific object; and (c) constructs and locates the resilient subject. The results suggest that resilience engineering scholars typically motivate the need for their studies by referring to the inherent complexities of modern socio-technical systems; complexities that make these systems inherently risky. The object of resilience then becomes the capacity to adapt to such emerging risks in order to guarantee the success of the inherently risky system. In the material reviewed, the subject of resilience is typically the individual, either at the sharp end or at higher managerial levels. The individual is called-upon to adapt in the face of risk to secure the continuous performance of the system. Based on the results from how resilience has been introduced in safety sciences we raise three ethical questions for the field to address: (1) should resilience be seen as people thriving despite of, or because of, risk?; (2) should resilience theory form a basis for moral judgement?; and finally (3) how much should resilience be approached as a trait of the individual

Urgency at work: Trains, time and technology

In contemporary workplaces, urgency is symbolic of workers’ experience of time as accelerated, and often associated with use of digital technologies. Yet we know little about how urgency is constructed at work, including the agentic roles of technology and other materialities. Based on interviews with railway workers, we extend Rosa’s conceptualisation of temporal junctures to explain how urgency as a temporal framing is sociomaterially constituted, sustained and challenged across and between workers and their managers, particularly through smartphone-use. Our analysis extends existing thinking on temporality at work by demonstrating how urgency narratives at sociomaterially complex configurations of temporal junctures shield workers, managers and the organisation against the temporal fragility of the rail infrastructure, such that each narration of urgency carries forward an illusion of temporal control

Improving emergency and disaster response management performance : A problem-solving perspective

The purpose of this doctoral thesis is to investigate how collective emergency and disaster response management performance can be further improved. Based on four studies, this research contributes with knowledge in two areas.First, collective processes that might improve response management are investigated. In this regard, collective improvisation as a concept is found limited in its usefulness and it is suggested to adopt problem solving as a broader analytical concept. In specific, collective problem representation is argued as potentially useful for investigating how response management performance can be improved. One interview study and one document study explore collective problem representation in response management. Based on interviews with response management professionals, three factors are found to impact the process of achieving a collective problem representation: formal hierarchical structures, legislation and regulations, and, relationships. How problems are represented in common operational pictures, which are widely used for sharing information about problems and solutions in responsemanagement is investigated in an empirical study of a wildfire response. Problems were found to be mainly represented in terms of geographic references and the status of the present wildfires, statements regarding resources, and, in terms of risks or potential consequences, relating to anticipated or future problems. Understandinghow problems are represented in common operational pictures enables an investigation into how these can be improved to better inform the handling of various events. The second area of contribution concerns how we can identify measures that actually improve response management performance. A complementary approach to traditional response management research is suggested: that of combining descriptive and experimental research. Descriptive studies constitute a basis for understandingresponse management problems and suggesting possible solutions. Experiments can thereafter test and evaluate the suggested solutions to see whether these should be further developed. The suggested research approach is exemplified with an experimental study testing a recommended measure in response management practice, namely goal alignment. Even though the findings indicate that goal alignment might not be an effective solution to improve response management performance, further inquiry is warranted. This thesis nevertheless calls for caution whenattributing causal explanation for successful performance to concepts without thoroughly investigating cause and effect between the two, which is supported by the findings related to collective improvisation and goal alignment. A useful way forward can be that of developing articulated models, which should describe the essential performance of the concept in question and have clear, falsifiable, connections between the concept and the outcome

Safety culture and resilience engineering exploring theory and application in improving gold mining safety

Contemporary approaches to safety management appear to be failing short of meeting its mark in improving mine safety. This is evidenced by the high workers compensation, high incidence rates and fatalties. Evidence from high-risk and complex organisations points towards safety culture as being important in improving site safety. In more recent years resilience engineering has been touted as a new and innovative way of managing safety. This paper reviews and synthesises previous literature on safety culture and resilience engineering. It then highlights methods that can be used to measure safety culture and resilience engineering, and explores similarities and differences between complex organisation and gold mining to identify opportunities for more innovative approaches to improving safety in gold mining operations through safety culture and reslience engineering

Drawing the Line: Cross-boundary Coordination Processes in Emergency Management

Groenewegen, P. [Promotor]Boersma, F.K. [Copromotor

Enhancing Safety: the Challenge of Foresight

We live in a world where advancement in technology coupled with human’s creative and innovative mind has led to the design of safer and better performing infrastructures (nuclear power plants, chemical process plants, high speed trains, spaceplanes, etc.), which are necessary for modern society. However, due to the interconnected socio-economic and technological landscape that is rapidly evolving, safety continues to have many new challenges (known unknowns, unknown unknowns) that add onto changed variants of the old challenges (e.g. modified knowns). Additionally, governance and legislation can be slow to catch up with this dynamic pace of change. At times, overregulation can occur, resulting in a significant resource investment towards compliance for existing infrastructure operators or for aspiring start-ups that would like to enter the market, but end up struggling or even abandoning the sector. Inspired by this background, the European Safety and Reliability Data Association’s Foresight in Safety Project Group prepared the 53rd ESReDA seminar with a purpose to launch an open dialogue with stakeholders in the safety arena. Thus, by providing an open forum where experiences in foresight in safety approaches from different sectors could be shared, cross-fertilisation of ideas, such as how foresight could be mainstreamed into safety practice in a more consistent manner, could be discussed. The project group will build on this rich compendium of experiences in its future endeavours.JRC.E.7-Knowledge for Security and Migratio

A pragmatist perspective on front-end project organizing: the case of refurbishment of the Palace of Westminster

This study examines how actors organized collective efforts to initiate the project and navigated their way forward, even though the ultimate outcome was not clearly defined. To address this question, we explore the potential of the philosophical tradition of pragmatism. This approach foregrounds duality, recursiveness and temporality of collective activities and offers a new and compelling way to understand and address the challenges actors face in organizing and managing the front-end. By accounting for both the situatedness of actions in the wider social and relational contexts, and by connecting the flow of present experience to the interpretations of the past and future, pragmatism holds the potential for integrating theory the actuality of lived experience in its continuous unfolding while accounting for actors’ transformative agency. By drawing on a real-time longitudinal study of conception of the program of the Restoration and Renewal (R&R) of the Palace of Westminster, we show how participants face the challenge of understanding and managing complex tensions that continually arise due to a duality of mobilization (between seeking consensus and expanding divergent possibilities) and a duality of transformation (between forming a bold vision of the future and translating abstract goals into concrete actions). To tackle the challenges, participants create strategic accounts that are stable enough to be practically feasible in current circumstances, but also sufficiently adaptable to pursue future possibilities in ways that challenge prevailing approaches. By showing how participants cope with these challenges by creating spaces of experimentation and constructing flexible boundaries this study contributes to the literature on management of project's front-end