Space-Varying Coefficient Models for Brain Imaging

The methodological development and the application in this paper originate from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), a powerful nuclear magnetic resonance technique enabling diagnosis and monitoring of several diseases as well as reconstruction of neural pathways. We reformulate the current analysis framework of separate voxelwise regressions as a 3d space-varying coefficient model (VCM) for the entire set of DTI images recorded on a 3d grid of voxels. Hence by allowing to borrow strength from spatially adjacent voxels, to smooth noisy observations, and to estimate diffusion tensors at any location within the brain, the three-step cascade of standard data processing is overcome simultaneously. We conceptualize two VCM variants based on B-spline basis functions: a full tensor product approach and a sequential approximation, rendering the VCM numerically and computationally feasible even for the huge dimension of the joint model in a realistic setup. A simulation study shows that both approaches outperform the standard method of voxelwise regressions with subsequent regularization. Due to major efficacy, we apply the sequential method to a clinical DTI data set and demonstrate the inherent ability of increasing the rigid grid resolution by evaluating the incorporated basis functions at intermediate points. In conclusion, the suggested fitting methods clearly improve the current state-of-the-art, but ameloriation of local adaptivity remains desirable

Hierarchical spatial models for predicting tree species assemblages across large domains

Spatially explicit data layers of tree species assemblages, referred to as forest types or forest type groups, are a key component in large-scale assessments of forest sustainability, biodiversity, timber biomass, carbon sinks and forest health monitoring. This paper explores the utility of coupling georeferenced national forest inventory (NFI) data with readily available and spatially complete environmental predictor variables through spatially-varying multinomial logistic regression models to predict forest type groups across large forested landscapes. These models exploit underlying spatial associations within the NFI plot array and the spatially-varying impact of predictor variables to improve the accuracy of forest type group predictions. The richness of these models incurs onerous computational burdens and we discuss dimension reducing spatial processes that retain the richness in modeling. We illustrate using NFI data from Michigan, USA, where we provide a comprehensive analysis of this large study area and demonstrate improved prediction with associated measures of uncertainty.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS250 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Towards the Efficient Probabilistic Characterization of Tropical Cyclone-Generated Storm Surge Hazards Under Stationary and Nonstationary Conditions

The scarcity of observations at any single location confounds the probabilistic characterization of tropical cyclone-generated storm surge hazards using annual maxima and peaks-over-threshold methods. The EST and the JPM are indirect approaches aimed at estimating the probability distribution of the response variable of interest (i.e. storm surge) using the probability distributions of predictor variables (e.g. storm size, storm intensity etc.). In the first part of this work, the relative performance of the empirical simulation technique (EST; Borgman et al., 1992) and the joint probability method (JPM; Myers, 1970) is evaluated via stochastic simulation methods. It is shown that the JPM has greater predictive capability for the estimation of the frequency of tropical cyclone winds, an efficient proxy for storm surge. The traditional attractions of the EST have been its economy and ease of implementation; more efficient numerical approximation schemes such as Bayesian quadrature now exist, which allows for more cost effective implementation of the JPM. In addition, typical enhancements of the original EST approach, such as the introduction of synthetic storms to complement the historical sample, are largely ineffective. These observations indicate that the EST should no longer be considered a practical approach for the robust and reliable estimation of the exceedance probabilities of storm surge levels, as required for actuarial purposes, engineering design and flood risk management in tropical cyclone-prone regions. The JPM is, however, not applicable to extratropical storm-prone regions and nonstationary phenomena. Additionally, the JPM requires the evaluation of a multidimensional integral composed of the product of marginal and conditional probability distributions of storm descriptors. This integral is typically approximated as a weighted summation of discrete function evaluations in each dimension and extended to D-dimensions by tensor product rules. To adequately capture the dynamics of the underlying physical process—storm surge driven by tropical cyclone wind fields—one must maintain a large number of explanatory variables in the integral. The complexity and cost of the joint probability problem, however, increases exponentially with dimension, precluding the inclusion of more than a few (≤4) stochastic variables. In the second part of the work, we extend stochastic simulation approaches to the classical joint probability problem. The successful implementation of stochastic simulation to the storm surge frequency problem requires the introduction of a new paradigm: the use of a regression function constructed by the careful selection of an optimal training set from the storm sample space such that the growth of support nodes required for efficient interpolation remains nonexponential while preserving the performance of a product grid equivalent. Apart from retaining the predictive capability of the JPM, the stochastic simulation approach also allows for nonstationary phenomena such as the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity to be efficiently modeled. A great utility of the stochastic approach is that the random sampling scheme is readily modified so that it conducts empirical simulation if required in place of parametric simulation. The enhanced empirical simulation technique attains predictive capabilities that are comparable with the JPM and the parametric simulation approach, while also retaining the suitability of empirical methods for application to situations that confound parametric methods, such as, application to extratropical cyclones and complexly distributed data. The parametric and empirical simulation techniques, together, will enable seamless flood hazard estimation for the entire coastline of the United States, with simple elaborations where needed to allow for the joint occurrence of both tropical and extratropical storms as compound stochastic processes. The stochastic approaches proposed hold great promise for the efficient probabilistic modeling of other multi-parameter systems such as earthquakes and riverine floods

Bezier curves for metamodeling of simulation output

Many design optimization problems rely on simulation models to obtain feasible solutions. Even with substantial improvement in the computational capability of computers, the enormous cost of computation needed for simulation makes it impractical to rely on simulation models. The use of metamodels or surrogate approximations in place of actual simulation models makes analysis realistic by reducing computational burden. There are many popular metamodeling techniques such as Polynomial Regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, Radial Basis Functions, Kriging and Artificial Neural Networks. This research proposes a new metamodeling technique that uses Bezier curves and patches. The Bezier curve method is based on interpolation like Kriging and Radial Basis Functions. In this research the Bezier Curve method will be used for output modeling of univariate and bivariate output modeling. Results will be validated using comparison with some of the most popular metamodeling techniques

A comparative study between the cubic spline and b-spline interpolation methods in free energy calculations

Numerical methods are essential in computational science, as analytic calculations for large datasets are impractical. Using numerical methods, one can approximate the problem to solve it with basic arithmetic operations. Interpolation is a commonly-used method, inter alia, constructing the value of new data points within an interval of known data points. Furthermore, polynomial interpolation with a sufficiently high degree can make the data set differentiable. One consequence of using high-degree polynomials is the oscillatory behaviour towards the endpoints, also known as Runge's Phenomenon. Spline interpolation overcomes this obstacle by connecting the data points in a piecewise fashion. However, its complex formulation requires nested iterations in higher dimensions, which is time-consuming. In addition, the calculations have to be repeated for computing each partial derivative at the data point, leading to further slowdown. The B-spline interpolation is an alternative representation of the cubic spline method, where a spline interpolation at a point could be expressed as the linear combination of piecewise basis functions. It was proposed that implementing this new formulation can accelerate many scientific computing operations involving interpolation. Nevertheless, there is a lack of detailed comparison to back up this hypothesis, especially when it comes to computing the partial derivatives. Among many scientific research fields, free energy calculations particularly stand out for their use of interpolation methods. Numerical interpolation was implemented in free energy methods for many purposes, from calculating intermediate energy states to deriving forces from free energy surfaces. The results of these calculations can provide insight into reaction mechanisms and their thermodynamic properties. The free energy methods include biased flat histogram methods, which are especially promising due to their ability to accurately construct free energy profiles at the rarely-visited regions of reaction spaces. Free Energies from Adaptive Reaction Coordinates (FEARCF) that was developed by Professor Kevin J. Naidoo has many advantages over the other flat histogram methods. iii Because of its treatment of the atoms in reactions, FEARCF makes it easier to apply interpolation methods. It implements cubic spline interpolation to derive biasing forces from the free energy surface, driving the reaction towards regions with higher energy. A major drawback of the method is the slowdown experienced in higher dimensions due to the complicated nature of the cubic spline routine. If the routine is replaced by a more straightforward B-spline interpolation, sampling and generating free energy surfaces can be accelerated. The dissertation aims to perform a comparative study between the cubic spline interpolation and B-spline interpolation methods. At first, data sets of analytic functions were used instead of numerical data to compare the accuracy and compute the percentage errors of both methods by taking the functions themselves as reference. These functions were used to evaluate the performances of the two methods at the endpoints, inflections points and regions with a steep gradient. Both interpolation methods generated identically approximated values with a percentage error below the threshold of 1%, although they both performed poorly at the endpoints and the points of inflection. Increasing the number of interpolation knots reduced the errors, however, it caused overfitting in the other regions. Although significant speed-up was not observed in the univariate interpolation, cubic spline suffered from a drastic slowdown in higher dimensions with up to 103 in 3D and 105 in 4D interpolations. The same results applied to the classical molecular dynamics simulations with FEARCF with a speed-up of up to 103 when B-spline interpolation was implemented. To conclude, the B-spline interpolation method can enhance the efficiency of the free energy calculations where cubic spline interpolation has been the currently-used method

Functional Regression

Functional data analysis (FDA) involves the analysis of data whose ideal units of observation are functions defined on some continuous domain, and the observed data consist of a sample of functions taken from some population, sampled on a discrete grid. Ramsay and Silverman's 1997 textbook sparked the development of this field, which has accelerated in the past 10 years to become one of the fastest growing areas of statistics, fueled by the growing number of applications yielding this type of data. One unique characteristic of FDA is the need to combine information both across and within functions, which Ramsay and Silverman called replication and regularization, respectively. This article will focus on functional regression, the area of FDA that has received the most attention in applications and methodological development. First will be an introduction to basis functions, key building blocks for regularization in functional regression methods, followed by an overview of functional regression methods, split into three types: [1] functional predictor regression (scalar-on-function), [2] functional response regression (function-on-scalar) and [3] function-on-function regression. For each, the role of replication and regularization will be discussed and the methodological development described in a roughly chronological manner, at times deviating from the historical timeline to group together similar methods. The primary focus is on modeling and methodology, highlighting the modeling structures that have been developed and the various regularization approaches employed. At the end is a brief discussion describing potential areas of future development in this field

A Theory of Networks for Appxoimation and Learning

Learning an input-output mapping from a set of examples, of the type that many neural networks have been constructed to perform, can be regarded as synthesizing an approximation of a multi-dimensional function, that is solving the problem of hypersurface reconstruction. From this point of view, this form of learning is closely related to classical approximation techniques, such as generalized splines and regularization theory. This paper considers the problems of an exact representation and, in more detail, of the approximation of linear and nolinear mappings in terms of simpler functions of fewer variables. Kolmogorov's theorem concerning the representation of functions of several variables in terms of functions of one variable turns out to be almost irrelevant in the context of networks for learning. We develop a theoretical framework for approximation based on regularization techniques that leads to a class of three-layer networks that we call Generalized Radial Basis Functions (GRBF), since they are mathematically related to the well-known Radial Basis Functions, mainly used for strict interpolation tasks. GRBF networks are not only equivalent to generalized splines, but are also closely related to pattern recognition methods such as Parzen windows and potential functions and to several neural network algorithms, such as Kanerva's associative memory, backpropagation and Kohonen's topology preserving map. They also have an interesting interpretation in terms of prototypes that are synthesized and optimally combined during the learning stage. The paper introduces several extensions and applications of the technique and discusses intriguing analogies with neurobiological data

Twenty years of P-splines

P-splines first appeared in the limelight twenty years ago. Since then they have become popular in applications and in theoretical work. The combination of a rich B-spline basis and a simple difference penalty lends itself well to a variety of generalizations, because it is based on regression. In effect, P-splines allow the building of a “backbone” for the “mixing and matching” of a variety of additive smooth structure components, while inviting all sorts of extensions: varying-coefficient effects, signal (functional) regressors, two-dimensional surfaces, non-normal responses, quantile (expectile) modelling, among others. Strong connections with mixed models and Bayesian analysis have been established. We give an overview of many of the central developments during the first two decades of P-splines.Peer Reviewe

Twenty years of P-splines

P-splines first appeared in the limelight twenty years ago. Since then they have become popular in applications and in theoretical work. The combination of a rich B-spline basis and a simple difference penalty lends itself well to a variety of generalizations, because it is based on regression. In effect, P-splines allow the building of a “backbone” for the “mixing and matching” of a variety of additive smooth structure components, while inviting all sorts of extensions: varying-coefficient effects, signal (functional) regressors, two-dimensional surfaces, non-normal responses, quantile (expectile) modelling, among others. Strong connections with mixed models and Bayesian analysis have been established. We give an overview of many of the central developments during the first two decades of P-splines

Representation and application of spline-based finite elements

Isogeometric analysis, as a generalization of the finite element method, employs spline methods to achieve the same representation for both geometric modeling and analysis purpose. Being one of possible tool in application to the isogeometric analysis, blending techniques provide strict locality and smoothness between elements. Motivated by these features, this thesis is devoted to the design and implementation of this alternative type of finite elements. This thesis combines topics in geometry, computer science and engineering. The research is mainly focused on the algorithmic aspects of the usage of the spline-based finite elements in the context of developing generalized methods for solving different model problems. The ability for conversion between different representations is significant for the modeling purpose. Methods for conversion between local and global representations are presented