The Fault Is Not in Our Stars: Avoiding an Arms Race in Outer Space

The world is on the precipice of a new arms race in outer space, as China, Russia, the United States, and others undertake dramatic new initiatives in anti-satellite weaponry. These accelerated competitive efforts at space control are highly destabilizing because developed societies have come to depend so heavily upon satellite services to support the entire civilian economy and the modern military apparatus; any significant threat or disruption in the availability of space assets would be massively, and possibly permanently, disruptive. International law regarding outer space developed with remarkable rapidity in the early years of the Space Age, but the process of formulating additional treaties and norms for space has broken down over the past several decades; no additional legal instruments have emerged that could cope with today’s rising threats. This Article therefore proposes three initiatives. Although none of them can suffice to solve the emerging problems, they could, perhaps, provide additional diplomacy, reinvigorating the prospects for rapprochement in space. Importantly, each of these three ideas has deep roots in other sectors of arms control, where they have served both to restore a measure of stability and to catalyze even more ambitious agreements in the longer term. The first proposal is for a declaratory regime of “no first use” of specified space weapons; this would do little to directly alter states’ capabilities for space warfare, but could serve as a “confidence-building measure,” to temper their most provocative rhetoric and practices. The second concept is a “limited test ban,” to interdict the most dangerous debris-creating developmental tests of new space weapons. Third is a suggestion for shared “space situational awareness,” which would create an international apparatus enabling all participants to enjoy the benefits of greater transparency, reducing the possibilities for secret malign or negligent behavior. In each instance, the Article describes the proposal and its variations, assesses its possible contributions to space security, and displays the key precedents from other arms-control successes. The Article concludes by calling for additional, further-reaching space diplomacy, in the hope that these relatively modest initial measures could provoke more robust subsequent negotiations

The us demand for defense spending : An empirical investigation for the post-cold war era

Bu çalışmada, Smith (1989)'in ortaya koyduğu neoklasik çerçevede, ABD savunma yükü talebi tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Veriler, BEA ve SIPRI'den elde edilmiş olup, tahmin yöntemi için nispeten yeni bir metot olan ME-boot kayan pencereler yöntemi kullanılmıştır. ABD'nin savunma harcamalarının GDP'deki payının (savunma yükü), kendi gecikmesi, ekonominin büyüme hızı, nispi savunma maliyeti, Rusya ve Çin savunma yükleri ile anlamlı bir ilişki içinde olduğu saptanmıştır. ABD savunma yükü talebinde kurumsal bürokratik durağanlığın büyük bir rol oynadığı görülmüş, farklı zaman aralıklarında saptanan pozitif, negatif ve anlamsız sonuçlardan dolayı büyümenin etkisi için kesin bir yargıya varılamayacağı belirtilmiştir. Savunma fiyatlarının sivil fiyatlara oranı, ABD savunma yükünün belirlenmesinde genel olarak pozitif bir etkiye sahipken, bu etkinin yüksek askeri hareketlilik dönemlerinde artış içinde olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Smith'in orijinal teorisinde bulunan ve veri eksikliğinden dolayı geçmiş ampirik çalışmalara dâhil edilmemiş olan fiyat etkisi, bu çalışma sayesinde görülebilmiştir. 2000 yılından itibaren Rusya ve Çin savunma yüklerinin, ABD askeri kararlarına olan pozitif etkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ne var ki ABD'nin 2012 yılında itibaren uygulamaya koyduğu yeni Asya-Pasifik denge politikası sonrası, günümüze Rusya'nın artık önemli bir tehdit olmaktan çıktığı, Çin'in ise askeri alanda ABD'nin yeni büyük rakibi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.Based on Smith (1989)'s neoclassical framework, the US demand for defense spending as a share of GDP (defense burden) is estimated by employing a relatively newly developed method called Me-boot rolling windows analysis using quarterly BEA and SIPRI data for the Post-Cold War times. While institutional inertia plays an important role in determining the US defense burden in general, there is no conclusive result concerning the growth rate since positive, negative, and insignificant effects were all observed for different time periods. The US defense burden was found to be well correlated with the price ratio of defense goods to civilian goods during times of high military mobilization probably due to the increasing demand for defense goods. The price effect in Smith's original theory that has been omitted in previous empirical studies due to data unavailability was, thus, confirmed. Both Russian and Chinese defense burdens were found to be important determinants of the US defense decisions after the 2nd millennium. However, since the implementation of the US new Asia-Pacific rebalance policy in 2012, no significant result was reported concerning the Russian threat while there was evidence towards a rising rivalry between the US and China in great extent. This, in turn, suggests that the US military policy follows its foreign policy closely in a very dynamic way

A False START: The Role of Ballistic Missile Defense in US-Russian Relations

In response to Iranian nuclear ambition the US and NATO have enacted a collective security initiative that will install Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) technology throughout Europe. However, during an otherwise cooperative period in US-Russian relations (e.g., the Obama administration’s “Reset” and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty or START), NATO’s posture in Eastern Europe has compelled Russia to likewise reinforce its defenses and develop measures to incapacitate opposing BMD systems. This research analyzes the political impacts of BMD on US-Russian relations, focusing particularly on NATO’s European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) program--described above

Political economy models of conflict.

We present a study of conflict from an economic perspective. We start by reviewing the approach to conflict in the economic sciences. We model conflict as a process of allocation of resources into two main technologies, production and appropriation. Then we complement this framework by allowing participants to negotiate. We introduce models of bargaining with complete and incomplete information. We incorporate the cost of conflict and this ensures that negotiated settlements always produce a more efficient outcome. The possibility of conflict arises as a result of incomplete information, which takes the form of informational asymmetry about the cost of conflict. We find endogenous war equilibrium outcomes and compare the outcome of optimal resource equilibria with arbitrary non-equilibria allocations. We also present some empirical evidence in the literature supporting the choice of utility models of conflict and present new results showing support for our propositions

The demand for military expenditure in developing countries

There is a growing body of literature on the determinants of military spending, mostly either starting from the premise of a dyadic arms race, or a welfare maximisation model incorporating economic, political and strategic variables. This thesis takes the latter approach, to analyse a large sample of developing countries for the period 1981-1997. Two cross-section regressions are estimated, one for the Cold War period, one for the post-Cold War, and a panel data model for the whole period. The results of this analysis suggest that military expenditure is roughly proportional to GNP, depends positively on war and the hostile neighbours' milex, and negatively on population and democracy. There is little evidence that the coefficients differ between the two cross-section regressions, but there is strong evidence of a structural break at the end of the Cold War in the panel data results. There is also evidence of regional differences in the results, which suggests that there may be different regional dynamics in the demand for military spending. To investigate further, the South American continent was chosen, and case studies conducted for Argentina, Brazil and Chile for the period 1970-2000. The main strategic influences on milex are hypothesised to be tension between Argentina and Chile and between Peru, Bolivia and Chile, the Falklands war, and Brazil's ambitions as a great power, while national income, debt and inflation are potential economic influences. Another concern is the differing circumstances of democratic transition in the three countries, especially the level of continuing military influence. This is also hypothesised to affect whether the transition led to reduced military spending. To test these hypotheses, ARDL regressions are run for each country. Argentine milex depends positively on GDP, Chilean milex, and post-Falklands rearmament, and negatively on debt and increasing inflation. Brazilian and Chilean milex seem to be independent of GDP, following an upward trend, but both are negatively affected by debt and inflation. There are no significant external influences on Brazilian milex, but some evidence that tension with Argentina affected Chilean milex. Democracy had no effect in Brazil, a clear negative effect in Chile, and a negative effect in Argentina, but only during the Menem administration. Taken overall, the results of the thesis produce a strong and consistent picture that relates the demand for military spending to overall economic resources and to the level of external and internal threat; however, in countries such as Brazil and Chile with strong continuing military influence, an 'institutionalist' understanding may also be needed, with the military seen as a rent-seeking institution

Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences

This is an open access book. Lewis F Richardson (1981-1953), a physicist by training, was a pioneer in meteorology and peace research and remains a towering presence in both fields. This edited volume reviews his work and assesses its influence in the social sciences, notably his work on arms races and their consequences, mathematical models, the size distribution of wars, and geographical features of conflict. It contains brief bibliographies of his main publications and of articles and books written about Richardson and his work and discusses his continuing influence in peace research and international relations as well as his attitude to the ethical responsibilities of a scientist. It will be of interest to a wide range of scholars. This book includes 11 chapters written by Nils Petter Gleditsch, Dina A Zinnes, Ron Smith, Paul F Diehl, Kelly Kadera, Mark Crescenzi, Michael D Ward, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Nils B Weidmann, Jürgen Scheffran, Niall MacKay, Aaron Clauset, Michael Spagat and Stijn van Weezel. Lewis F Richardson occupied an important position in two academic fields as different as meteorology and peace research, with academic prizes awarded in both disciplines. In peace research, he pioneered the use of mathematical models and the meticulous compilation of databases for empirical research. As a quaker and pacifist, he refused to work in preparations for war, paid a heavy prize in terms of his career, and (at least in the social sciences) was fully recognized as a pioneering scholar only posthumously with the publication of two major books. Lewis Fry Richardson is one of the 20th century’s greatest but least appreciated thinkers—a creative physicist, psychologist, meteorologist, applied mathematician, historian, pacifist, statistician, and witty stylist. If you’ve heard of weather prediction, chaos, fractals, cliometrics, peace science, big data, thick tails, or black swans, then you have benefited from Richardson’s prescience in bringing unruly phenomena into the ambit of scientific understanding. Richardson’s ideas continue to be relevant today, and this collection is a superb retrospective on this brilliant and lovable man. Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor, Harvard University, and the author of The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment No

The regime complex of global space governance : the international space politics of the 21st century

Post-Cold War trends in national space-capability building and the liberalization of the global space economy have expanded the concerns of states in international astropolitics from security as such to other issue areas, including safety, economic growth and social development, and sustainability. Since the beginning of the 21st Century, the constellation of international space regimes has continued to expand, while the global governing architecture has fragmented. Within a ‘regime complex’ analytical framework, this work presents two interpretive narratives of the strategic, functional and organizational aspects that explain the design and evolution of ‘the regime complex of global space security governance’ and ‘the GNSSs regime complex’. The case studies chart the dynamics of international space politics and analyze the growing structural fragmentation of the complex global scheme of space governance. An additional enabling factor such as innovation was identified as vital to reinforce the growth of regime complex in global space governance