Short-term traffic predictions on large urban traffic networks: applications of network-based machine learning models and dynamic traffic assignment models

The paper discusses the issues to face in applications of short-term traffic predictions on urban road networks and the opportunities provided by explicit and implicit models. Different specifications of Bayesian Networks and Artificial Neural Networks are applied for prediction of road link speed and are tested on a large floating car data set. Moreover, two traffic assignment models of different complexity are applied on a sub-area of the road network of Rome and validated on the same floating car data set

Travel Time Estimation and Forecasting on Urban Roads.

Imperial Users onl

ICWIM8 - 8th Conference on Weigh-in-Motion - Book of proceedings

ICWIM8, 8th International Conference on Weigh-in-Motion, PRAGUE, TCHÈQUE, RÉPUBLIQUE, 20-/05/2019 - 24/05/2019The conference addresses the broad range of topics related to on-road and in-vehicle WIM technology, its research, installation and operation and use of mass data across variable end-uses. Innovative technologies and experiences of WIM system implementation are presented. Application of WIM data to infrastructure, mainly bridges and pavements, is among the main topics. However, the most demanding application is now WIM for enforcement, and the greatest challenge is WIM for direct enforcement. Most of the countries and road authorities should ensure a full compliance of heavy vehicle weights and dimensions with the current regulations. Another challenging objective is to extend the lifetimes of existing road assets, despite of increasing heavy vehicle loads and flow, and without compromising with the structural safety. Fair competition and road charging also require accurately monitoring commercial vehicle weights by WIM. WIM contributes to a global ITS (Intelligent Transport System) providing useful data on heavy good vehicles to implement Performance Based Standards (PBS) and Intelligent Access Programme (IAP, Australia) or Smart Infrastructure Access Programme (SIAP). The conference reports the latest research and developments since the last conference in 2016, from all around the World. More than 150 delegates from 33 countries and all continents are attending ICWIM8, mixing academics, end users, decision makers and WIM vendors. An industrial exhibition is organized jointly with the conference

Modelling and optimisation of resource usage in an IoT enabled smart campus

University campuses are essentially a microcosm of a city. They comprise diverse facilities such as residences, sport centres, lecture theatres, parking spaces, and public transport stops. Universities are under constant pressure to improve efficiencies while offering a better experience to various stakeholders including students, staff, and visitors. Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence indicates that campus assets are not being utilized efficiently, often due to the lack of data collection and analysis, thereby limiting the ability to make informed decisions on the allocation and management of resources. Advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that can sense and communicate data from the physical world, coupled with data analytics and Artificial intelligence (AI) that can predict usage patterns, have opened up new opportunities for organizations to lower cost and improve user experience. This thesis explores this opportunity via theory and experimentation using UNSW Sydney as a living laboratory. The building blocks of this thesis consist of three pillars of execution, namely, IoT deployment, predictive modelling, and optimization. Together, these components create an end-to-end framework that provides informed decisions to estate manager in regards to the optimal allocation of campus resources. The main contributions of this thesis are three application domains, which lies on top of the execution pillars, defining campus resources as classrooms, car parks, and transit buses. Specifically, our contributions are: i) We evaluate several IoT occupancy sensing technologies and instrument 9 lecture halls of varying capacities with the most appropriate sensing solution. The collected data provides us with insights into attendance patterns, such as cancelled lectures and class tests, of over 250 courses. We then develop predictive models using machine learning algorithms and quantile regression technique to predict future attendance patterns. Finally, we propose an intelligent optimisation model that allows allocations of classes to rooms based on the dynamics of predicted attendance as opposed to static enrolment number. We show that the data-driven assignment of classroom resources can achieve a potential saving in room cost of over 10\% over the course of a semester, while incurring a very low risk of disrupting student experience due to classroom overflow; ii) We instrument a car park with IoT sensors for real-time monitoring of parking demand and comprehensively analyse the usage data spanning over 15 months. We then develop machine learning models to forecast future parking demand at multiple forecast horizons ranging from 1 day to 10 weeks, our models achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.58 cars per hour. Finally, we propose a novel optimal allocation framework that allows campus manager to re-dimension the car park to accommodate new paradigms of car use while minimizing the risk of rejecting users and maintaining a certain level of revenue from the parking infrastructure; iii) We develop sensing technology for measuring an outdoor orderly queue using ultrasonic sensor and LoRaWAN, and deploy the solution at an on campus bus stop. Our solution yields a reasonable accuracy with MAE of 10.7 people for detecting a queue length of up to 100 people. We then develop an optimisation model to reschedule bus dispatch times based on the actual dynamics of passenger demand. The result suggests that a potential wait time reduction of 42.93% can be achieved with demand-driven bus scheduling. Taken together, our contributions demonstrates that there are significant resource efficiency gains to be realised in a smart-campus that employs IoT sensing coupled with predictive modelling and dynamic optimisation algorithms

Modelling and optimisation of resource usage in an IoT enabled smart campus

University campuses are essentially a microcosm of a city. They comprise diverse facilities such as residences, sport centres, lecture theatres, parking spaces, and public transport stops. Universities are under constant pressure to improve efficiencies while offering a better experience to various stakeholders including students, staff, and visitors. Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence indicates that campus assets are not being utilized efficiently, often due to the lack of data collection and analysis, thereby limiting the ability to make informed decisions on the allocation and management of resources. Advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that can sense and communicate data from the physical world, coupled with data analytics and Artificial intelligence (AI) that can predict usage patterns, have opened up new opportunities for organizations to lower cost and improve user experience. This thesis explores this opportunity via theory and experimentation using UNSW Sydney as a living laboratory. The building blocks of this thesis consist of three pillars of execution, namely, IoT deployment, predictive modelling, and optimization. Together, these components create an end-to-end framework that provides informed decisions to estate manager in regards to the optimal allocation of campus resources. The main contributions of this thesis are three application domains, which lies on top of the execution pillars, defining campus resources as classrooms, car parks, and transit buses. Specifically, our contributions are: i) We evaluate several IoT occupancy sensing technologies and instrument 9 lecture halls of varying capacities with the most appropriate sensing solution. The collected data provides us with insights into attendance patterns, such as cancelled lectures and class tests, of over 250 courses. We then develop predictive models using machine learning algorithms and quantile regression technique to predict future attendance patterns. Finally, we propose an intelligent optimisation model that allows allocations of classes to rooms based on the dynamics of predicted attendance as opposed to static enrolment number. We show that the data-driven assignment of classroom resources can achieve a potential saving in room cost of over 10\% over the course of a semester, while incurring a very low risk of disrupting student experience due to classroom overflow; ii) We instrument a car park with IoT sensors for real-time monitoring of parking demand and comprehensively analyse the usage data spanning over 15 months. We then develop machine learning models to forecast future parking demand at multiple forecast horizons ranging from 1 day to 10 weeks, our models achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.58 cars per hour. Finally, we propose a novel optimal allocation framework that allows campus manager to re-dimension the car park to accommodate new paradigms of car use while minimizing the risk of rejecting users and maintaining a certain level of revenue from the parking infrastructure; iii) We develop sensing technology for measuring an outdoor orderly queue using ultrasonic sensor and LoRaWAN, and deploy the solution at an on campus bus stop. Our solution yields a reasonable accuracy with MAE of 10.7 people for detecting a queue length of up to 100 people. We then develop an optimisation model to reschedule bus dispatch times based on the actual dynamics of passenger demand. The result suggests that a potential wait time reduction of 42.93% can be achieved with demand-driven bus scheduling. Taken together, our contributions demonstrates that there are significant resource efficiency gains to be realised in a smart-campus that employs IoT sensing coupled with predictive modelling and dynamic optimisation algorithms

The application of chaos theory to forecast urban traffic conditions

PhD ThesisThis thesis explores the application of Chaos Theory to forecast urban traffic conditions. The research takes advantage of a highly resolved temporal and spatial data available from the Split Cycle Optimisation Technique (SCOOT) system, in order to overcome the limitations of previous studies to investigate applying Chaos Theory in traffic management. This thesis reports on the development of a chaos-based algorithm and presents results from its application to a SCOOT controlled region in the city of Leicester, UK. A Phase Space Reconstruction method is used to analyse non-linear data from the SCOOT system, and establishes that a 20 second resolved data is suitable for understanding the dynamics of the traffic system. The research develops the Lyapunov exponent as a chaos-based parameter to forecast link occupancy using a multiple regression model based on the temporal and spatial relationships across the links in the network. The model generates a unique forecast function for each link for every hour of the day. The study demonstrates that Lyapunov exponents can be used to predict the occupancy profile of links in the network to a reasonably high level of accuracy (R-values generally greater than 0.6). Evidence also suggests that the predictions from the Lyapunov exponents (rather than occupancy) make it possible to report on the impending conditions over a wider part of the network so that imminent congested conditions can be foreseen in advance and mitigation measures implemented. Thus, the thesis concludes that incorporating chaos-based algorithms in this way can enable urban traffic control systems to be one-step ahead of traffic congestion, rather than one-step behind. This would improve the management of traffic on a more strategic level rather than purely within smaller network regions thus playing an important role in improving journey times and air quality and making a vital contribution to mitigating climate change

Connected and Automated Vehicles in Urban Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems

Understanding the components of Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems (TCPS), and inter-relation and interactions among these components are key factors to leverage the full potentials of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs). In a connected environment, CAVs can communicate with other components of TCPS, which include other CAVs, other connected road users, and digital infrastructure. Deploying supporting infrastructure for TCPS, and developing and testing CAV-specific applications in a TCPS environment are mandatory to achieve the CAV potentials. This dissertation specifically focuses on the study of current TCPS infrastructure (Part 1), and the development and verification of CAV applications for an urban TCPS environment (Part 2). Among the TCPS components, digital infrastructure bears sheer importance as without connected infrastructure, the Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) applications cannot be implemented. While focusing on the V2I applications in Part 1, this dissertation evaluates the current digital roadway infrastructure status. The dissertation presents a set of recommendations, based on a review of current practices and future needs. In Part 2, To synergize the digital infrastructure deployment with CAV deployments, two V2I applications are developed for CAVs for an urban TCPS environment. At first, a real-time adaptive traffic signal control algorithm is developed, which utilizes CAV data to compute the signal timing parameters for an urban arterial in the near-congested traffic condition. The analysis reveals that the CAV-based adaptive signal control provides operational benefits to both CVs and non-CVs with limited data from 5% CVs, with 5.6% average speed increase, and 66.7% and 32.4% average maximum queue length and stopped delay reduction, respectively, on a corridor compared to the actuated coordinated scenario. The second application includes the development of a situation-aware left-turning CAV controller module, which optimizes CAV speed based on the follower driver\u27s aggressiveness. Existing autonomous vehicle controllers do not consider the surrounding driver\u27s behavior, which may lead to road rage, and rear-end crashes. The analysis shows that the average travel time reduction for the scenarios with 600, 800 and 1000 veh/hr/lane opposite traffic stream are 61%, 23%, and 41%, respectively, for the follower vehicles, if the follower driver\u27s behavior is considered by CAVs

High-level Architecture and Compelling Technologies for an Advanced Web-based Vehicle Routing and Scheduling System for Urban Freight Transportation

The search for a more efficient routing and scheduling, the improvement of service’s level and the increasing complexity of real-world distributive contexts are contingent variables that generate the need for a system’s architecture that may be holistic, innovative, scalable and reliable. Hence, new technologies and a lucid awareness of involved actors and infrastructures, provide the basis to create a more efficient routing and scheduling architecture for enterprises

Negative space of things: a practice-based research approach to understand the role of objects in the Internet of Things

This is a practice-based research thesis situated in the research context of the ‘Internet of Things’, and critiques contemporary theoretical discourse related to the 21st century turn of connecting everyday objects to the World Wide Web. In the last decade we have seen the ‘Internet of Things’ articulated predominately through three commercial design fictions, each a response to the shift towards pervasive”, “ubiquitous” (Weiser 1991), or “context-ware” (Schilit, 1994) computing; where we inhabit spaces with objects capable of sensing, recording and relaying data about themselves and their environments. Through reflecting upon these existing design fictions, through a new combination of theories and practice-based research that embodies them, this thesis proposes a recovery to understanding the role of objects in the ‘Internet of Things’, which this author believes has been lost since its conception in the mid 2000s. In 2000, HP Labs presented Cooltown, which addressed what HP identified as the ‘convergence of Web technology, wireless networks, and portable client devices provides’. Cooltown’s primary discourse was to provide ‘new design opportunities for computer/communications systems, through an infrastructure to support "web presence" for people, places and things.’ (Anders 1998; Barton & Kindberg 2002). IBM’s Smarter Planet followed this in 2008 and shifted importance from the act of connecting objects to understanding the value of data as it flows between these objects in a network (Castells 1996; Sterling 2005; Latour 2005). Finally, Cisco presented The Internet of Everything in 2012 and moved the argument on one stage further, identifying that the importance of connected objects lies in the sum of their communication across silos of networks, where data can provide potential insight from which you can improve services (Bleecker 2006). Despite these design and theoretical fictions, the affordances of the Internet of Things first proposed in the mid 2000s has regressed from data to product, driven largely by unchanged discourse argued by those designers at its conception and also the enticement of being the next Google acquisition; instead of pigeons reporting on the environmental conditions of a city (Da Costa 2006), we have thermostats controllable from your smartphone (www.scottishpower.co.uk/connect). Therefore the aim of this thesis is to re-examine the initial potential of the Internet of Things, which is tested through a series of design interventions as research for art and design, (produced as part of my EPSRC funded doctoral studies on the Tales of Things and Electronic Memory research project and also whilst employed as a research assistant on two EPSRC funded research programmes of work Sixth Sense Transport, and The Connected High Street), to understand how we use data to allow an alternative discourse to emerge in order to recover the role of a networked object, rather than producing prototypical systems