Parameter Estimation via Conditional Expectation --- A Bayesian Inversion

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by actual observations of the response of the real system. In a probabilistic setting, Bayes's theory is the proper mathematical background for this identification process. The possibility of being able to compute a conditional expectation turns out to be crucial for this purpose. We show how this theoretical background can be used in an actual numerical procedure, and shortly discuss various numerical approximations

Towards Scalable Synthesis of Stochastic Control Systems

Formal control synthesis approaches over stochastic systems have received significant attention in the past few years, in view of their ability to provide provably correct controllers for complex logical specifications in an automated fashion. Examples of complex specifications of interest include properties expressed as formulae in linear temporal logic (LTL) or as automata on infinite strings. A general methodology to synthesize controllers for such properties resorts to symbolic abstractions of the given stochastic systems. Symbolic models are discrete abstractions of the given concrete systems with the property that a controller designed on the abstraction can be refined (or implemented) into a controller on the original system. Although the recent development of techniques for the construction of symbolic models has been quite encouraging, the general goal of formal synthesis over stochastic control systems is by no means solved. A fundamental issue with the existing techniques is the known "curse of dimensionality," which is due to the need to discretize state and input sets and that results in an exponential complexity over the number of state and input variables in the concrete system. In this work we propose a novel abstraction technique for incrementally stable stochastic control systems, which does not require state-space discretization but only input set discretization, and that can be potentially more efficient (and thus scalable) than existing approaches. We elucidate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by synthesizing a schedule for the coordination of two traffic lights under some safety and fairness requirements for a road traffic model. Further we argue that this 5-dimensional linear stochastic control system cannot be studied with existing approaches based on state-space discretization due to the very large number of generated discrete states.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1407.273

Distribution-based bisimulation for labelled Markov processes

In this paper we propose a (sub)distribution-based bisimulation for labelled Markov processes and compare it with earlier definitions of state and event bisimulation, which both only compare states. In contrast to those state-based bisimulations, our distribution bisimulation is weaker, but corresponds more closely to linear properties. We construct a logic and a metric to describe our distribution bisimulation and discuss linearity, continuity and compositional properties.Comment: Accepted by FORMATS 201

Symbolic Models for Stochastic Switched Systems: A Discretization and a Discretization-Free Approach

Stochastic switched systems are a relevant class of stochastic hybrid systems with probabilistic evolution over a continuous domain and control-dependent discrete dynamics over a finite set of modes. In the past few years several different techniques have been developed to assist in the stability analysis of stochastic switched systems. However, more complex and challenging objectives related to the verification of and the controller synthesis for logic specifications have not been formally investigated for this class of systems as of yet. With logic specifications we mean properties expressed as formulae in linear temporal logic or as automata on infinite strings. This paper addresses these complex objectives by constructively deriving approximately equivalent (bisimilar) symbolic models of stochastic switched systems. More precisely, this paper provides two different symbolic abstraction techniques: one requires state space discretization, but the other one does not require any space discretization which can be potentially more efficient than the first one when dealing with higher dimensional stochastic switched systems. Both techniques provide finite symbolic models that are approximately bisimilar to stochastic switched systems under some stability assumptions on the concrete model. This allows formally synthesizing controllers (switching signals) that are valid for the concrete system over the finite symbolic model, by means of mature automata-theoretic techniques in the literature. The effectiveness of the results are illustrated by synthesizing switching signals enforcing logic specifications for two case studies including temperature control of a six-room building.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1302.386

Probabilistic Computability and Choice

We study the computational power of randomized computations on infinite objects, such as real numbers. In particular, we introduce the concept of a Las Vegas computable multi-valued function, which is a function that can be computed on a probabilistic Turing machine that receives a random binary sequence as auxiliary input. The machine can take advantage of this random sequence, but it always has to produce a correct result or to stop the computation after finite time if the random advice is not successful. With positive probability the random advice has to be successful. We characterize the class of Las Vegas computable functions in the Weihrauch lattice with the help of probabilistic choice principles and Weak Weak K\H{o}nig's Lemma. Among other things we prove an Independent Choice Theorem that implies that Las Vegas computable functions are closed under composition. In a case study we show that Nash equilibria are Las Vegas computable, while zeros of continuous functions with sign changes cannot be computed on Las Vegas machines. However, we show that the latter problem admits randomized algorithms with weaker failure recognition mechanisms. The last mentioned results can be interpreted such that the Intermediate Value Theorem is reducible to the jump of Weak Weak K\H{o}nig's Lemma, but not to Weak Weak K\H{o}nig's Lemma itself. These examples also demonstrate that Las Vegas computable functions form a proper superclass of the class of computable functions and a proper subclass of the class of non-deterministically computable functions. We also study the impact of specific lower bounds on the success probabilities, which leads to a strict hierarchy of classes. In particular, the classical technique of probability amplification fails for computations on infinite objects. We also investigate the dependency on the underlying probability space.Comment: Information and Computation (accepted for publication

Numerical Computation for Backward Doubly SDEs with random terminal time

In this article, we are interested in solving numerically backward doubly stochastic differential equations (BDSDEs) with random terminal time tau. The main motivations are giving a probabilistic representation of the Sobolev's solution of Dirichlet problem for semilinear SPDEs and providing the numerical scheme for such SPDEs. Thus, we study the strong approximation of this class of BDSDEs when tau is the first exit time of a forward SDE from a cylindrical domain. Euler schemes and bounds for the discrete-time approximation error are provided.Comment: 38, Monte Carlo Methods and Applications (MCMA) 201