Approximation Algorithms for the Stochastic Lot-Sizing Problem with Order Lead Times

We develop new algorithmic approaches to compute provably near-optimal policies for multiperiod stochastic lot-sizing inventory models with positive lead times, general demand distributions, and dynamic forecast updates. The policies that are developed have worst-case performance guarantees of 3 and typically perform very close to optimal in extensive computational experiments. The newly proposed algorithms employ a novel randomized decision rule. We believe that these new algorithmic and performance analysis techniques could be used in designing provably near-optimal randomized algorithms for other stochastic inventory control models and more generally in other multistage stochastic control problems.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant DMS-0732175)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (CAREER Award CMMI-0846554)United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Award FA9550-08-1-0369)United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Award FA9550-11-1-0150)Singapore-MIT AllianceSolomon Buchsbaum AT&T Research Fun

Computing (R, S) policies with correlated demand

This paper considers the single-item single-stocking non-stationary stochastic lot-sizing problem under correlated demand. By operating under a nonstationary (R, S) policy, in which R denote the reorder period and S the associated order-up-to-level, we introduce a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model which can be easily implemented by using off-theshelf optimisation software. Our modelling strategy can tackle a wide range of time-seriesbased demand processes, such as autoregressive (AR), moving average(MA), autoregressive moving average(ARMA), and autoregressive with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity process(AR-ARCH). In an extensive computational study, we compare the performance of our model against the optimal policy obtained via stochastic dynamic programming. Our results demonstrate that the optimality gap of our approach averages 2.28% and that computational performance is good

Approximating the Nonlinear Newsvendor and Single-Item Stochastic Lot-Sizing Problems When Data Is Given by an Oracle

The single-item stochastic lot-sizing problem is to find an inventory replenishment policy in the presence of discrete stochastic demands under periodic review and finite time horizon. A closely related problem is the single-period newsvendor model. It is well known that the newsvendor problem admits a closed formula for the optimal order quantity whenever the revenue and salvage values are linear increasing functions and the procurement (ordering) cost is fixed plus linear. The optimal policy for the single-item lot-sizing model is also well known under similar assumptions. In this paper we show that the classical (single-period) newsvendor model with fixed plus linear ordering cost cannot be approximated to any degree of accuracy when either the demand distribution or the cost functions are given by an oracle. We provide a fully polynomial time approximation scheme for the nonlinear single-item stochastic lot-sizing problem, when demand distribution is given by an oracle, procurement costs are provided as nondecreasing oracles, holding/backlogging/disposal costs are linear, and lead time is positive. Similar results exist for the nonlinear newsvendor problem. These approximation schemes are designed by extending the technique of K-approximation sets and functions.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Contract CMMI-0758069)United States. Office of Naval Research (Grant N000141110056

Clips: a capacity and lead time integrated procedure for scheduling.

We propose a general procedure to address real life job shop scheduling problems. The shop typically produces a variety of products, each with its own arrival stream, its own route through the shop and a given customer due date. The procedure first determines the manufacturing lot sizes for each product. The objective is to minimize the expected lead time and therefore we model the production environment as a queueing network. Given these lead times, release dates are set dynamically. This in turn creates a time window for every manufacturing order in which the various operations have to be sequenced. The sequencing logic is based on a Extended Shifting Bottleneck Procedure. These three major decisions are next incorporated into a four phase hierarchical operational implementation scheme. A small numerical example is used to illustrate the methodology. The final objective however is to develop a procedure that is useful for large, real life shops. We therefore report on a real life application.Model; Models; Applications; Product; Scheduling;

Demand uncertainty and lot sizing in manufacturing systems: the effects of forecasting errors and mis-specification

This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on lot sizing methods, unit costs and customer service levels in MRP type manufacturing systems. A number of cost structures were considered which depend on the expected time between orders. A simple two-level MRP system where the product is manufactured for stock was then simulated. Stochastic demand for the final product was generated by two commonly occurring processes and with different variances. Various lot sizing rules were then used to determine the amount of product made and the amount of materials bought in. The results confirm earlier research that the behaviour of lot sizing rules is quite different when there is uncertainty in demand compared to the situation of perfect foresight of demand. The best lot sizing rules for the deterministic situation are the worst whenever there is uncertainty in demand. In addition the choice of lot sizing rule between ‘good’ rules such as the EOQ turns out to be relatively less important in reducing unit cost compared to improving forecasting accuracy whatever the cost structure. The effect of demand uncertainty on unit cost for a given service level increases exponentially as the uncertainty in the demand data increases. The paper also shows how the value of improved forecasting can be analysed by examining the effects of different sizes of forecast error in addition to demand uncertainty. In those manufacturing problems with high forecast error variance, improved forecast accuracy should lead to substantial percentage improvements in unit costs