25,449 research outputs found
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution with Time-Dependence Using the AR and MA Models in State Space Form
A new state space approach is proposed to model the time- dependence in an extreme value process. The generalized extreme value distribution is extended to incorporate the time-dependence using a state space representation where the state variables either follow an autoregressive (AR) process or a moving average (MA) process with innovations arising from a Gumbel distribution. Using a Bayesian approach, an efficient algorithm is proposed to implement Markov chain Monte Carlo method where we exploit a very accurate approximation of the Gumbel distribution by a ten-component mixture of normal distributions. The methodology is illustrated using extreme returns of daily stock data. The model is fitted to a monthly series of minimum returns and the empirical results support strong evidence for time-dependence among the observed minimum returns.Extreme values, Generalized extreme value distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Mixture sampler, State space model, Stock returns
Bayesian Compressed Regression
As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional
regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis.
This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing
well when the predictors can be projected to a low dimensional linear subspace
with minimal loss of information about the response. As opposed to existing
Bayesian dimensionality reduction approaches, the exact posterior distribution
conditional on the compressed data is available analytically, speeding up
computation by many orders of magnitude while also bypassing robustness issues
due to convergence and mixing problems with MCMC. Model averaging is used to
reduce sensitivity to the random projection matrix, while accommodating
uncertainty in the subspace dimension. Strong theoretical support is provided
for the approach by showing near parametric convergence rates for the
predictive density in the large p small n asymptotic paradigm. Practical
performance relative to competitors is illustrated in simulations and real data
applications.Comment: 29 pages, 4 figure
- ā¦