12,852 research outputs found

    Modeling and Optimal Design of Machining-Induced Residual Stresses in Aluminium Alloys Using a Fast Hierarchical Multiobjective Optimization Algorithm

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    The residual stresses induced during shaping and machining play an important role in determining the integrity and durability of metal components. An important issue of producing safety critical components is to find the machining parameters that create compressive surface stresses or minimise tensile surface stresses. In this paper, a systematic data-driven fuzzy modelling methodology is proposed, which allows constructing transparent fuzzy models considering both accuracy and interpretability attributes of fuzzy systems. The new method employs a hierarchical optimisation structure to improve the modelling efficiency, where two learning mechanisms cooperate together: NSGA-II is used to improve the modelā€™s structure while the gradient descent method is used to optimise the numerical parameters. This hybrid approach is then successfully applied to the problem that concerns the prediction of machining induced residual stresses in aerospace aluminium alloys. Based on the developed reliable prediction models, NSGA-II is further applied to the multi-objective optimal design of aluminium alloys in a ā€˜reverse-engineeringā€™ fashion. It is revealed that the optimal machining regimes to minimise the residual stress and the machining cost simultaneously can be successfully located

    On Similarities between Inference in Game Theory and Machine Learning

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    In this paper, we elucidate the equivalence between inference in game theory and machine learning. Our aim in so doing is to establish an equivalent vocabulary between the two domains so as to facilitate developments at the intersection of both fields, and as proof of the usefulness of this approach, we use recent developments in each field to make useful improvements to the other. More specifically, we consider the analogies between smooth best responses in fictitious play and Bayesian inference methods. Initially, we use these insights to develop and demonstrate an improved algorithm for learning in games based on probabilistic moderation. That is, by integrating over the distribution of opponent strategies (a Bayesian approach within machine learning) rather than taking a simple empirical average (the approach used in standard fictitious play) we derive a novel moderated fictitious play algorithm and show that it is more likely than standard fictitious play to converge to a payoff-dominant but risk-dominated Nash equilibrium in a simple coordination game. Furthermore we consider the converse case, and show how insights from game theory can be used to derive two improved mean field variational learning algorithms. We first show that the standard update rule of mean field variational learning is analogous to a Cournot adjustment within game theory. By analogy with fictitious play, we then suggest an improved update rule, and show that this results in fictitious variational play, an improved mean field variational learning algorithm that exhibits better convergence in highly or strongly connected graphical models. Second, we use a recent advance in fictitious play, namely dynamic fictitious play, to derive a derivative action variational learning algorithm, that exhibits superior convergence properties on a canonical machine learning problem (clustering a mixture distribution)

    Neural Network Modelling of Constrained Spatial Interaction Flows

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    Fundamental to regional science is the subject of spatial interaction. GeoComputation - a new research paradigm that represents the convergence of the disciplines of computer science, geographic information science, mathematics and statistics - has brought many scholars back to spatial interaction modeling. Neural spatial interaction modeling represents a clear break with traditional methods used for explicating spatial interaction. Neural spatial interaction models are termed neural in the sense that they are based on neurocomputing. They are clearly related to conventional unconstrained spatial interaction models of the gravity type, and under commonly met conditions they can be understood as a special class of general feedforward neural network models with a single hidden layer and sigmoidal transfer functions (Fischer 1998). These models have been used to model journey-to-work flows and telecommunications traffic (Fischer and Gopal 1994, Openshaw 1993). They appear to provide superior levels of performance when compared with unconstrained conventional models. In many practical situations, however, we have - in addition to the spatial interaction data itself - some information about various accounting constraints on the predicted flows. In principle, there are two ways to incorporate accounting constraints in neural spatial interaction modeling. The required constraint properties can be built into the post-processing stage, or they can be built directly into the model structure. While the first way is relatively straightforward, it suffers from the disadvantage of being inefficient. It will also result in a model which does not inherently respect the constraints. Thus we follow the second way. In this paper we present a novel class of neural spatial interaction models that incorporate origin-specific constraints into the model structure using product units rather than summation units at the hidden layer and softmax output units at the output layer. Product unit neural networks are powerful because of their ability to handle higher order combinations of inputs. But parameter estimation by standard techniques such as the gradient descent technique may be difficult. The performance of this novel class of spatial interaction models will be demonstrated by using the Austrian interregional traffic data and the conventional singly constrained spatial interaction model of the gravity type as benchmark. References Fischer M M (1998) Computational neural networks: A new paradigm for spatial analysis Environment and Planning A 30 (10): 1873-1891 Fischer M M, Gopal S (1994) Artificial neural networks: A new approach to modelling interregional telecommunciation flows, Journal of Regional Science 34(4): 503-527 Openshaw S (1993) Modelling spatial interaction using a neural net. In Fischer MM, Nijkamp P (eds) Geographical information systems, spatial modelling, and policy evaluation, pp. 147-164. Springer, Berlin

    Forecasting Long-Term Government Bond Yields: An Application of Statistical and AI Models

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    This paper evaluates several artificial intelligence and classical algorithms on their ability of forecasting the monthly yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds from a set of four economic indicators. Due to the complexity of the prediction problem, the task represents a challenging test for the algorithms under evaluation. At the same time, the study is of particular significance for the important and paradigmatic role played by the US market in the world economy. Four data-driven artificial intelligence approaches are considered, namely, a manually built fuzzy logic model, a machine learned fuzzy logic model, a self-organising map model and a multi-layer perceptron model. Their performance is compared with the performance of two classical approaches, namely, a statistical ARIMA model and an econometric error correction model. The algorithms are evaluated on a complete series of end-month US 10-year Treasury bonds yields and economic indicators from 1986:1 to 2004:12. In terms of prediction accuracy and reliability of the modelling procedure, the best results are obtained by the three parametric regression algorithms, namely the econometric, the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron model. Due to the sparseness of the learning data samples, the manual and the automatic fuzzy logic approaches fail to follow with adequate precision the range of variations of the US 10-year Treasury bonds. For similar reasons, the self-organising map model gives an unsatisfactory performance. Analysis of the results indicates that the econometric model has a slight edge over the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron models. This suggests that pure data-driven induction may not fully capture the complicated mechanisms ruling the changes in interest rates. Overall, the prediction accuracy of the best models is only marginally better than the prediction accuracy of a basic one-step lag predictor. This result highlights the difficulty of the modelling task and, in general, the difficulty of building reliable predictors for financial markets.interest rates; forecasting; neural networks; fuzzy logic.

    Data-driven Economic NMPC using Reinforcement Learning

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    Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a powerful tool to perform data-driven optimal control without relying on a model of the system. However, RL struggles to provide hard guarantees on the behavior of the resulting control scheme. In contrast, Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) and Economic NMPC (ENMPC) are standard tools for the closed-loop optimal control of complex systems with constraints and limitations, and benefit from a rich theory to assess their closed-loop behavior. Unfortunately, the performance of (E)NMPC hinges on the quality of the model underlying the control scheme. In this paper, we show that an (E)NMPC scheme can be tuned to deliver the optimal policy of the real system even when using a wrong model. This result also holds for real systems having stochastic dynamics. This entails that ENMPC can be used as a new type of function approximator within RL. Furthermore, we investigate our results in the context of ENMPC and formally connect them to the concept of dissipativity, which is central for the ENMPC stability. Finally, we detail how these results can be used to deploy classic RL tools for tuning (E)NMPC schemes. We apply these tools on both a classical linear MPC setting and a standard nonlinear example from the ENMPC literature

    Random Neural Networks and Optimisation

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    In this thesis we introduce new models and learning algorithms for the Random Neural Network (RNN), and we develop RNN-based and other approaches for the solution of emergency management optimisation problems. With respect to RNN developments, two novel supervised learning algorithms are proposed. The first, is a gradient descent algorithm for an RNN extension model that we have introduced, the RNN with synchronised interactions (RNNSI), which was inspired from the synchronised firing activity observed in brain neural circuits. The second algorithm is based on modelling the signal-flow equations in RNN as a nonnegative least squares (NNLS) problem. NNLS is solved using a limited-memory quasi-Newton algorithm specifically designed for the RNN case. Regarding the investigation of emergency management optimisation problems, we examine combinatorial assignment problems that require fast, distributed and close to optimal solution, under information uncertainty. We consider three different problems with the above characteristics associated with the assignment of emergency units to incidents with injured civilians (AEUI), the assignment of assets to tasks under execution uncertainty (ATAU), and the deployment of a robotic network to establish communication with trapped civilians (DRNCTC). AEUI is solved by training an RNN tool with instances of the optimisation problem and then using the trained RNN for decision making; training is achieved using the developed learning algorithms. For the solution of ATAU problem, we introduce two different approaches. The first is based on mapping parameters of the optimisation problem to RNN parameters, and the second on solving a sequence of minimum cost flow problems on appropriately constructed networks with estimated arc costs. For the exact solution of DRNCTC problem, we develop a mixed-integer linear programming formulation, which is based on network flows. Finally, we design and implement distributed heuristic algorithms for the deployment of robots when the civilian locations are known or uncertain
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