26,786 research outputs found

    Boom and Bust Behavior: On the Persistence of Strategic Decision Biases and their Collective Outcome

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    This work discusses the boom and bust dynamics which are a common feature of a large range of different industries. especially but not only new born ones. The common managerial behavior underpinning such dynamics is aggressive capacity expansion in the boom period ultimately yielding excess capacity turning the boom into bust. This paper examines the underlying cognitive and behavioral factors responsible for strategic decisions driving boom and busts, nested in the interaction between cognitive biases and capacity adjustment delay, and together tries to identify some tentative heuristics which tend to mitigate them. At the same time, we shall conjecturally conclude, there might be a positive collective side to boom and bust behavio r fostering accumulation of knowledge and physical infrastructure, especially regarding new technological paradigms.Boom and bust; Overconfidence; Capacity adjustment; Adaptive behavior

    TTCM-aided rate-adaptive distributed source coding for Rayleigh fading channels

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    Adaptive turbo-trellis-coded modulation (TTCM)-aided asymmetric distributed source coding (DSC) is proposed, where two correlated sources are transmitted to a destination node. The first source sequence is TTCM encoded and is further compressed before it is transmitted through a Rayleigh fading channel, whereas the second source signal is assumed to be perfectly decoded and, hence, to be flawlessly shown at the destination for exploitation as side information for improving the decoding performance of the first source. The proposed scheme is capable of reliable communications within 0.80 dB of the Slepian-Wolf/Shannon (SW/S) theoretical limit at a bit error rate (BER) of 10-5. Furthermore, its encoder is capable of accommodating time-variant short-term correlation between the two sources

    Great Surges of development and alternative forms of globalization

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    The present understanding of globalization is inextricably tied to the free market ideology for both proponents and opponents. This paper will argue that globalization has many potential forms of which the neo-liberal recipe, applied up to now, is only one. Globalization need not be neo-liberal. A pro-development version of globalization has not yet been designed or defended as such. It will be argued that, without it, not only would it be very difficult to relaunch development in the South but also to overcome the present instabilities, imbalances and recessionary trends in the economies of the North.

    An Erlang multirate loss model supporting elastic traffic under the threshold policy

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    In this paper, we propose a multirate teletraffic loss model of a single link with certain bandwidth capacity that accommodates Poisson arriving calls, which can tolerate bandwidth compression (elastic traffic), under the threshold policy. When compression occurs, the service time of new and in-service calls increases. The threshold policy provides different QoS among service-classes by limiting the number of calls of a service-class up to a pre-defined threshold, which can be different for each service-class. Due to the bandwidth compression mechanism, the steady state probabilities in the proposed model do not have a product form solution. However, we approximate the model by a reversible Markov chain, and prove recursive formulas for the calculation of call blocking probabilities and link utilization. The accuracy of the proposed formulas is verified through simulation and found to be very satisfactory

    Savings, Investment and Growth: New Approaches for Macroeconomic Modelling

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    We prove that profit maximization behavior and the neoclassical growth model can be consistent. Moreover, we present a new medium term Keynes-Solow macro model. The short-term Keynesian macroeconomic model shows that a rise in the savings rate will reduce output, while higher savings imply for the neoclassical growth model a rise in the long run per capita income. The Keynes-Solow model sheds new light on the role of the savings rate. The Keynes-Solow model presented links both the short run and the long run, thus suggesting a new way of consistent macroeconomic modelling and of analyzing the efficiency of fiscal and monetary policy - and the role of supply-side policy. The model also is applied to some key issues of the New Economy, whose characteristics affect the effectiveness of fiscal policy and other policy instruments. The model presented suggests that government policy should focus not only on short term effects but more on medium term aspects. The medium term effect of monetary policy is larger than in the short run. Supply-side policy will raise medium term output whenever the golden rule is fulfilled and under certain other conditions, too. Our conclusions go well beyond the monetarist debate and put the focus on the consumption function, the output elasticity of capital and the depreciation rate - as well as the role of foreign direct investment.Neoclassical growth model, Keynes-Solow model, macroeconomic modelling

    Institutions, Telecommunications Dynamics and Policy Challenges: Theory and Empirical Analysis for Germany

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    The telecommunications sector was liberalized in the US and the EU in 1984 and 1998, respectively. In EU countries, price cap regulation has shaped this sector in a pro-competitive way that - with telecommunications obviously being a key element of the information and communications sector (ICT) - has obviously contributed to higher employment and growth. Integrating the use of telecommunications in a macroeconomic production function is the analytical starting point for our interdependent analysis of output, use of telecommunications and employment. Based on unit root and co-integration analysis as well as an error correction three-equation model which are estimated simultaneously, we present results both on long run links and short run links between telecommunications, output and employment. Considering various scenarios suggests that a fall in the relative price of telecommunications can generate a cumulated employment increase of 760,000 within seven years. This points to the need for maintaining the regulation of fixed-line telecommunications networks in Germany with due emphasis on efficiency-enhancing competition. The institutional setup for regulating telecommunications could be improved in Germany and other EU countries.telecommunications dynamics, institutional setup

    Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Tanzania

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    This paper employs a 52-sector, small, open-economy computable general equilibrium model of the Tanzanian economy to assess the impact of the liberalization of regulatory barriers against foreign and domestic business service providers in Tanzania. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. It summarizes policy notes on the key business service sectors that were prepared for this work, and estimates the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment based on these policy notes and detailed questionnaires completed by specialists in Tanzania. The authors estimate that Tanzania will gain about 5.3 percent of the value of Tanzanian consumption in the medium run (or about 4.8 percent of gross domestic product) from a full reform package that also includes uniform tariffs. The estimated gains increase to about 16 percent of consumption in the long-run, steady-state model, where the impact on the accumulation of capital from an improvement in the productivity of capital is taken into account. Decomposition exercises reveal that the largest gains to Tanzania will derive from liberalization of costly regulatory barriers that are non-discriminatory in their impacts between Tanzanian and multinational service providers.accounting; accurate estimate; aged; allocation; amount of money; baseline scenario; beneficiaries; beneficiary; Breast Cancer; budget constraint; calculation; central government; child care
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