The smart waste collection routing problem: alternative operational management approaches

Waste collection is nowadays an increasingly important business. However, it is often an inefficient op- eration due to the high uncertainty associated with the real waste bins’ fill-levels. To deal with such uncertainty the use of sensors to transmit real time information is seen as possible solution. But, in order to improve operations’ efficiency, the sensors’ usage must be combined with optimization procedures that inform on the optimal collection routes to operationalize, so as to guarantee a maximization of the waste collected while also minimizing transportation costs. The present work explores this challenge and studies three operational management approaches to define dynamic optimal routes, considering the access to real-time information on the bins’ fill-levels. A real case study is solved and important results were found where significant profit improvements are observed when compared to the real operation. This shows the potential of the proposed approaches to build an expert system, which can support the operations manager’s decisions.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Flood risk management under uncertainty in transboundary basins: a delicate balancing act

Flooding is an inherently uncertain hydrometeorological phenomenon. When it occurs in transboundary basins, the complexity of its management is amplified by international treaties and needs for political accountability. Little has been written about FRM under the inevitable uncertainty in these transboundary contexts. This paper addresses this gap through an exploratory case study of a new FRM plan (Plan 2014) in the Great Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River system in North America. We examine the evolving nature of contemporary FRM towards more flexible approaches in the face of increasing uncertainty. When this new management plan coincided with severe transboundary flooding, this highlighted deep tensions, notably between upstream and downstream communities, expert and lay opinion, and between the planners setting rules and the operators using those rules. This story also showcases the complex balancing act faced by flood risk managers operating across national boundaries who are asked to contend with hydrological variability as well as public needs for certainty. We contend that the negotiation and agreed dispute resolution processes surrounding these tensions is a fundamental component of FRM in international basins, and one that may become ever more important as climate change further increases the uncertainty regarding these hydrometeorological hazards

A framework to manage uncertainties in cloud manufacturing environment

This research project aims to develop a framework to manage uncertainty in cloud manufacturing for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The framework includes a cloud manufacturing taxonomy; guidance to deal with uncertainty in cloud manufacturing, by providing a process to identify uncertainties; a detailed step-by-step approach to managing the uncertainties; a list of uncertainties; and response strategies to security and privacy uncertainties in cloud manufacturing. Additionally, an online assessment tool has been developed to implement the uncertainty management framework into a real life context. To fulfil the aim and objectives of the research, a comprehensive literature review was performed in order to understand the research aspects. Next, an uncertainty management technique was applied to identify, assess, and control uncertainties in cloud manufacturing. Two well-known approaches were used in the evaluation of the uncertainties in this research: Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) to prioritise uncertainties; and a fuzzy rule-based system to quantify security and privacy uncertainties. Finally, the framework was embedded into an online assessment tool and validated through expert opinion and case studies. Results from this research are useful for both academia and industry in understanding aspects of cloud manufacturing. The main contribution is a framework that offers new insights for decisions makers on how to deal with uncertainty at adoption and implementation stages of cloud manufacturing. The research also introduced a novel cloud manufacturing taxonomy, a list of uncertainty factors, an assessment process to prioritise uncertainties and quantify security and privacy related uncertainties, and a knowledge base for providing recommendations and solutions

System simulation by SEMoLa

SEMoLa is a platform, developed at DISA since 1992, for system knowledge integration and modelling. It allows to create computer models for dynamic systems and to manage different types of information. It is formed by several parts, each dealing with different forms of knowledge, in an integrated way: a graphical user interface (GUI), a declarative language for modelling, a set of commands with a procedural scripting language, a specific editor with code highlighting (SemEdit), a visual modelling application (SemDraw), a data base management system (SemData), plotting data capabilities (SemPlot), a raster maps management system (SemGrid), a large library of random number generators for uncertainty analysis, support for fuzzy logic expert systems, a neural networks builder and various statistical tools (basic statistics, multiple and non-linear regression, moving statistics, etc.). The core part of the platform is the declarative modelling language (SEMoLa; simple, easy to use, modelling language). It relies on System Dynamics principles and uses an integrated view to represent dynamic systems through different modelling approaches (state/individual-based, continuous/discrete, deterministic/stochastic) without requiring specific programming skills. SEMoLa language is based on a ontology closer to human reasoning rather than computer logic and constitutes also a paradigm for knowledge management. SEMoLa platform permits to simplify the routinely tasks of creating, debugging, evaluating and deploying computer simulation models but also to create user libraries of script commands. It is able to communicate with other frameworks exchanging - with standard formats - data, modules and model components

Management of uncertain pairwise comparisons in AHP through probabilistic concepts

[EN] Fast and judicious decision-making is paramount for the success of many activities and processes. However, various degrees of difficulty may affect the achievement of effective and optimal solutions. Decisions should ideally meet the best trade-off among as many of the involved factors as possible, especially in the case of complex problems. Substantial cognitive and technical skills are indispensable, while not always sufficient, to carry out optimal evaluations. One of the most common causes of wrong decisions derives from uncertainty and vagueness in making forecasts or attributing judgments. The literature shows numerous efforts towards the optimization and modeling of uncertain contexts by means of probabilistic approaches. This paper proposes the use of probability theory to estimate uncertain expert judgments within the framework of the analytic hierarchy process and, more specifically, within a linearization scheme developed by the authors. After describing the necessary probabilistic concepts of interest, the main results are developed. These results can be summarized as using various kinds of random variables with uncertainty embodied in undecided pairwise comparisons. A case study focused on the maintenance management of an industrial water distribution system exemplifies the approach.Benítez López, J.; Carpitella, S.; Certa, A.; Izquierdo Sebastián, J. (2019). Management of uncertain pairwise comparisons in AHP through probabilistic concepts. Applied Soft Computing. 78:274-285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2019.02.020S2742857

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Towards a pragmatic approach for dealing with uncertainties in water management practice

Management of water resources is afflicted with uncertainties. Nowadays it is facing more and new uncertainties since pace and dimension of changes (e.g. climatic, demographic) are accelerating and are likely to increase even more in the future. Hence it is crucial to find pragmatic ways to deal with these uncertainties in water management. So far, decision-making under uncertainty in water management is based on either intuition, heuristics and experience of water managers or on expert assessments all of which are only of limited use for water managers in practice. We argue for an analytical yet pragmatic approach to enable practitioners to deal with uncertainties in a more explicit and systematic way and allow for better informed decisions. Our approach is based on the concept of framing, referring to the different ways in which people make sense of the world and of the uncertainties. We applied and tested recently developed parameters that aim to shed light on the framing of uncertainty in two sub-basins of the Rhine. We present and discuss the results of a series of stakeholder interactions in the two basins aimed at developing strategies for improving dealing with uncertainties. The strategies are synthesized in a cross-checking list based on the uncertainty framing parameters as a hands-on tool for systematically identifying improvement options when dealing with uncertainty in water management practice. We conclude with suggestions for testing the developed check-list as a tool for decision aid in water management practice. Key words: water management, future uncertainties, framing of uncertainties, hands-on decision aid, tools for practice, robust strategies, social learnin

Finding Academic Experts on a MultiSensor Approach using Shannon's Entropy

Expert finding is an information retrieval task concerned with the search for the most knowledgeable people, in some topic, with basis on documents describing peoples activities. The task involves taking a user query as input and returning a list of people sorted by their level of expertise regarding the user query. This paper introduces a novel approach for combining multiple estimators of expertise based on a multisensor data fusion framework together with the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and Shannon's entropy. More specifically, we defined three sensors which detect heterogeneous information derived from the textual contents, from the graph structure of the citation patterns for the community of experts, and from profile information about the academic experts. Given the evidences collected, each sensor may define different candidates as experts and consequently do not agree in a final ranking decision. To deal with these conflicts, we applied the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence combined with Shannon's Entropy formula to fuse this information and come up with a more accurate and reliable final ranking list. Experiments made over two datasets of academic publications from the Computer Science domain attest for the adequacy of the proposed approach over the traditional state of the art approaches. We also made experiments against representative supervised state of the art algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed method achieved a similar performance when compared to these supervised techniques, confirming the capabilities of the proposed framework