ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

B

General equilibrium

Unlike partial equilibrium analysis which study the equilibrium of a particular market under the clause "ceteris paribus" that revenues and prices on the other markets stay approximately unaffected, the ambition of a general equilibrium model is to analyze the simultaneous equilibrium in all markets of a competitive economy. Definition of the abstract model, some of its basic results and insights are presented. The important issues of uniqueness and local uniqueness of equilibrium are sketched ; they are the condition for a predictive power of the theory and its ability to allow for statics comparisons. Finally, we review the main extensions of the general equilibrium model. Besides the natural extensions to infinitely many commodities and to a continuum of agents, some examples show how economic theory can accommodate the main ideas in order to study some contexts which were not thought of by the initial model.Commodity space, price space, exchange economy, production economy, feasible allocations, equilibrium, quasi-equilibrium, Pareto optimum, core, edgeworth equilibrium allocutions, time and uncertainty, continuum economies, non-convexities, public goods, incomplete markets.

Machine learning and its applications in reliability analysis systems

In this thesis, we are interested in exploring some aspects of Machine Learning (ML) and its application in the Reliability Analysis systems (RAs). We begin by investigating some ML paradigms and their- techniques, go on to discuss the possible applications of ML in improving RAs performance, and lastly give guidelines of the architecture of learning RAs. Our survey of ML covers both levels of Neural Network learning and Symbolic learning. In symbolic process learning, five types of learning and their applications are discussed: rote learning, learning from instruction, learning from analogy, learning from examples, and learning from observation and discovery. The Reliability Analysis systems (RAs) presented in this thesis are mainly designed for maintaining plant safety supported by two functions: risk analysis function, i.e., failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) ; and diagnosis function, i.e., real-time fault location (RTFL). Three approaches have been discussed in creating the RAs. According to the result of our survey, we suggest currently the best design of RAs is to embed model-based RAs, i.e., MORA (as software) in a neural network based computer system (as hardware). However, there are still some improvement which can be made through the applications of Machine Learning. By implanting the 'learning element', the MORA will become learning MORA (La MORA) system, a learning Reliability Analysis system with the power of automatic knowledge acquisition and inconsistency checking, and more. To conclude our thesis, we propose an architecture of La MORA

Using features for automated problem solving

We motivate and present an architecture for problem solving where an abstraction layer of "features" plays the key role in determining methods to apply. The system is presented in the context of theorem proving with Isabelle, and we demonstrate how this approach to encoding control knowledge is expressively different to other common techniques. We look closely at two areas where the feature layer may offer benefits to theorem proving — semi-automation and learning — and find strong evidence that in these particular domains, the approach shows compelling promise. The system includes a graphical theorem-proving user interface for Eclipse ProofGeneral and is available from the project web page, http://feasch.heneveld.org

Advances in Optimization and Nonlinear Analysis

The present book focuses on that part of calculus of variations, optimization, nonlinear analysis and related applications which combines tools and methods from partial differential equations with geometrical techniques. More precisely, this work is devoted to nonlinear problems coming from different areas, with particular reference to those introducing new techniques capable of solving a wide range of problems. The book is a valuable guide for researchers, engineers and students in the field of mathematics, operations research, optimal control science, artificial intelligence, management science and economics

EXPLAINABLE FEATURE- AND DECISION-LEVEL FUSION

Information fusion is the process of aggregating knowledge from multiple data sources to produce more consistent, accurate, and useful information than any one individual source can provide. In general, there are three primary sources of data/information: humans, algorithms, and sensors. Typically, objective data---e.g., measurements---arise from sensors. Using these data sources, applications such as computer vision and remote sensing have long been applying fusion at different levels (signal, feature, decision, etc.). Furthermore, the daily advancement in engineering technologies like smart cars, which operate in complex and dynamic environments using multiple sensors, are raising both the demand for and complexity of fusion. There is a great need to discover new theories to combine and analyze heterogeneous data arising from one or more sources. The work collected in this dissertation addresses the problem of feature- and decision-level fusion. Specifically, this work focuses on fuzzy choquet integral (ChI)-based data fusion methods. Most mathematical approaches for data fusion have focused on combining inputs relative to the assumption of independence between them. However, often there are rich interactions (e.g., correlations) between inputs that should be exploited. The ChI is a powerful aggregation tool that is capable modeling these interactions. Consider the fusion of m sources, where there are 2m unique subsets (interactions); the ChI is capable of learning the worth of each of these possible source subsets. However, the complexity of fuzzy integral-based methods grows quickly, as the number of trainable parameters for the fusion of m sources scales as 2m. Hence, we require a large amount of training data to avoid the problem of over-fitting. This work addresses the over-fitting problem of ChI-based data fusion with novel regularization strategies. These regularization strategies alleviate the issue of over-fitting while training with limited data and also enable the user to consciously push the learned methods to take a predefined, or perhaps known, structure. Also, the existing methods for training the ChI for decision- and feature-level data fusion involve quadratic programming (QP). The QP-based learning approach for learning ChI-based data fusion solutions has a high space complexity. This has limited the practical application of ChI-based data fusion methods to six or fewer input sources. To address the space complexity issue, this work introduces an online training algorithm for learning ChI. The online method is an iterative gradient descent approach that processes one observation at a time, enabling the applicability of ChI-based data fusion on higher dimensional data sets. In many real-world data fusion applications, it is imperative to have an explanation or interpretation. This may include providing information on what was learned, what is the worth of individual sources, why a decision was reached, what evidence process(es) were used, and what confidence does the system have on its decision. However, most existing machine learning solutions for data fusion are black boxes, e.g., deep learning. In this work, we designed methods and metrics that help with answering these questions of interpretation, and we also developed visualization methods that help users better understand the machine learning solution and its behavior for different instances of data