152,700 research outputs found
Hybrid model using logit and nonparametric methods for predicting micro-entity failure
Following the calls from literature on bankruptcy, a parsimonious hybrid bankruptcy model is developed in this paper
by combining parametric and non-parametric approaches.To this end, the variables with the highest predictive power to
detect bankruptcy are selected using logistic regression (LR). Subsequently, alternative non-parametric methods
(Multilayer Perceptron, Rough Set, and Classification-Regression Trees) are applied, in turn, to firms classified as
either “bankrupt” or “not bankrupt”. Our findings show that hybrid models, particularly those combining LR and
Multilayer Perceptron, offer better accuracy performance and interpretability and converge faster than each method
implemented in isolation. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that the introduction of non-financial and macroeconomic
variables complement financial ratios for bankruptcy prediction
Consumer finance: challenges for operational research
Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking, both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring—the way of assessing risk in consumer finance—and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines 10 challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these involve developing more robust risk assessment systems, whereas others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer finance. <br/
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