Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence-Driven Multi-Scale Modeling for High Burnup Accident-Tolerant Fuels for Light Water-Based SMR Applications

The concept of small modular reactor has changed the outlook for tackling future energy crises. This new reactor technology is very promising considering its lower investment requirements, modularity, design simplicity, and enhanced safety features. The application of artificial intelligence-driven multi-scale modeling (neutronics, thermal hydraulics, fuel performance, etc.) incorporating Digital Twin and associated uncertainties in the research of small modular reactors is a recent concept. In this work, a comprehensive study is conducted on the multiscale modeling of accident-tolerant fuels. The application of these fuels in the light water-based small modular reactors is explored. This chapter also focuses on the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence in the design optimization, control, and monitoring of small modular reactors. Finally, a brief assessment of the research gap on the application of artificial intelligence to the development of high burnup composite accident-tolerant fuels is provided. Necessary actions to fulfill these gaps are also discussed

Non-Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification for U3Si2 and UO2 Fuels with SiC/SiC Cladding using BISON for Digital Twin-Enabling Technology

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a future-focused research project to assess the regulatory viability of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven Digital Twins (DTs) for nuclear applications. Advanced accident tolerant fuel (ATF) is one of the priority focus areas of the DOE/ NRC. DTs have the potential to transform the nuclear energy sector in the coming years by incorporating risk-informed decision-making into the Accelerated Fuel Qualification (AFQ) process for ATF. A DT framework can offer game-changing yet practical and informed solutions to the complex problem of qualifying advanced ATFs. However, novel ATF technology suffers from a couple of challenges, such as (i) Data unavailability; (ii) Lack of data, missing data; and (iii) Model uncertainty. These challenges must be resolved to gain the trust in DT framework development. In addition, DT-enabling technologies consist of three major areas: (i) modeling and simulation (M&S), covering uncertainty quantification (UQ), sensitivity analysis (SA), data analytics through ML/AI, physics-based models, and data-informed modeling, (ii) Advanced sensors/instrumentation, and (iii) Data management. UQ and SA are important segments of DT-enabling technologies to ensure trustworthiness, which need to be implemented to meet the DT requirement. Considering the regulatory standpoint of the modeling and simulation (M&S) aspect of DT, UQ and SA are paramount to the success of DT framework in terms of multi-criteria and risk-informed decision-making. In this study, the adaptability of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) based UQ/SA in a non-intrusive method in BISON was investigated to ensure M&S aspects of the AFQ for ATF. This study introduces the ML-based UQ and SA methods while exhibiting actual applications to the finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code

Stochastic process design kits for photonic circuits based on polynomial chaos augmented macro-modelling

Fabrication tolerances can significantly degrade the performance of fabricated photonic circuits and process yield. It is essential to include these stochastic uncertainties in the design phase in order to predict the statistical behaviour of a device before the final fabrication. This paper presents a method to build a novel class of stochastic-based building blocks for the preparation of Process Design Kits for the analysis and design of photonic circuits. The proposed design kits directly store the information on the stochastic behaviour of each building block in the form of a generalized-polynomial-chaos-based augmented macro-model obtained by properly exploiting stochastic collocation and Galerkin methods. Using these macro-models, only a single deterministic simulation is required to compute the stochastic moments of any arbitrary photonic circuit, without the need of running a large number of time-consuming circuit simulations thereby dramatically improving simulation efficiency. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by means of classical photonic circuit examples with multiple uncertain variables

Iterative learning control of crystallisation systems

Under the increasing pressure of issues like reducing the time to market, managing lower production costs, and improving the flexibility of operation, batch process industries thrive towards the production of high value added commodity, i.e. specialty chemicals, pharmaceuticals, agricultural, and biotechnology enabled products. For better design, consistent operation and improved control of batch chemical processes one cannot ignore the sensing and computational blessings provided by modern sensors, computers, algorithms, and software. In addition, there is a growing demand for modelling and control tools based on process operating data. This study is focused on developing process operation data-based iterative learning control (ILC) strategies for batch processes, more specifically for batch crystallisation systems. In order to proceed, the research took a step backward to explore the existing control strategies, fundamentals, mechanisms, and various process analytical technology (PAT) tools used in batch crystallisation control. From the basics of the background study, an operating data-driven ILC approach was developed to improve the product quality from batch-to-batch. The concept of ILC is to exploit the repetitive nature of batch processes to automate recipe updating using process knowledge obtained from previous runs. The methodology stated here was based on the linear time varying (LTV) perturbation model in an ILC framework to provide a convergent batch-to-batch improvement of the process performance indicator. In an attempt to create uniqueness in the research, a novel hierarchical ILC (HILC) scheme was proposed for the systematic design of the supersaturation control (SSC) of a seeded batch cooling crystalliser. This model free control approach is implemented in a hierarchical structure by assigning data-driven supersaturation controller on the upper level and a simple temperature controller in the lower level. In order to familiarise with other data based control of crystallisation processes, the study rehearsed the existing direct nucleation control (DNC) approach. However, this part was more committed to perform a detailed strategic investigation of different possible structures of DNC and to compare the results with that of a first principle model based optimisation for the very first time. The DNC results in fact outperformed the model based optimisation approach and established an ultimate guideline to select the preferable DNC structure. Batch chemical processes are distributed as well as nonlinear in nature which need to be operated over a wide range of operating conditions and often near the boundary of the admissible region. As the linear lumped model predictive controllers (MPCs) often subject to severe performance limitations, there is a growing demand of simple data driven nonlinear control strategy to control batch crystallisers that will consider the spatio-temporal aspects. In this study, an operating data-driven polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) based nonlinear surrogate modelling and optimisation strategy was presented for batch crystallisation processes. Model validation and optimisation results confirmed this approach as a promise to nonlinear control. The evaluations of the proposed data based methodologies were carried out by simulation case studies, laboratory experiments and industrial pilot plant experiments. For all the simulation case studies a detailed mathematical models covering reaction kinetics and heat mass balances were developed for a batch cooling crystallisation system of Paracetamol in water. Based on these models, rigorous simulation programs were developed in MATLAB®, which was then treated as the real batch cooling crystallisation system. The laboratory experimental works were carried out using a lab scale system of Paracetamol and iso-Propyl alcohol (IPA). All the experimental works including the qualitative and quantitative monitoring of the crystallisation experiments and products demonstrated an inclusive application of various in situ process analytical technology (PAT) tools, such as focused beam reflectance measurement (FBRM), UV/Vis spectroscopy and particle vision measurement (PVM) as well. The industrial pilot scale study was carried out in GlaxoSmithKline Bangladesh Limited, Bangladesh, and the system of experiments was Paracetamol and other powdered excipients used to make paracetamol tablets. The methodologies presented in this thesis provide a comprehensive framework for data-based dynamic optimisation and control of crystallisation processes. All the simulation and experimental evaluations of the proposed approaches emphasised the potential of the data-driven techniques to provide considerable advances in the current state-of-the-art in crystallisation control

복잡한 동특성을 갖는 다상 반응기의 설계를 위한 계산 효율적인 모사 및 최적화 전략

학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :공과대학 화학생물공학부,2020. 2. 이종민.본 박사학위논문에서는 멀티 스케일 모델링, 실험 결과를 이용한 모델 보정법, 최적화 순으로 진행되는 산업용 화학 반응기의 설계 전략을 제시한다. 반응기는 화학 공정에서 제일 중요한 단위이지만, 그 설계에 있어서는 최신 수치적 기법들보다는 여전히 간단한 모델이나 실험 및 경험 규칙에 의존하고 있는 현실이다. 산업 규모의 반응기는 물리, 화학적으로 몹시 복잡하고, 관련 변수 간의 스케일이 크게 차이나는 경우가 많아 수학적 모델링 및 수치적 해법을 구하기가 어렵다. 모델을 만들더라도 부정확하거나 시뮬레이션 시간이 너무 긴 문제가 있어 최적화 알고리즘에 적용하기가 힘들다. 반응기 내 현상의 복잡성과 스케일 차이 문제는 멀티 스케일 모델링을 통해 접근할 수 있다. 전산유체역학 기반 구획 모델(CFD-based compartmental model)을 이용하면, 불균일한 혼합 패턴을 보이는 대형 반응기에서도 긴 시간 동안의 동적 모사가 가능하다. 이 모델은 큰 반응기를 완벽하게 균일한 작은 구획들의 네트워크로 간주하고, 각 구획을 반응 속도식들과 CFD 결과로부터 가져온 유동 정보가 포함된 질량 및 에너지 균형 방정식으로 표현한다. 기체, 액체, 고체 3상이 상호작용하며 복잡한 유동을 보이는 수성 광물 탄산화 반응기를 이 방법을 사용해 모델링하였다. 이 때 모델은 미분 대수 방정식(DAE)의 형태를 띠며, 메커니즘 상 모든 반응들(기-액 간 물질 전달 반응, 고체 용해 반응, 이온 간 반응, 앙금 침전 반응)과 유체 역학, 반응열, 열역학적 변화 및 운전 상의 이벤트 발생을 모두 고려할 수 있다. 모델을 이용해 이산화탄소 제거 효율, pH 및 온도 변화를 예측하여 실제 운전 데이터와 비교한 결과, 파라미터를 통한 보정이 전혀 없이도 7 % 이내의 오차를 보여주었다. 모델의 부정확성 문제는 모델링 후 실험 결과를 이용한 모델 보정으로 극복 할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 광물 탄산화 반응기 모델을 베이지안 보정(Bayesian calibration)을 통해 강화하는 방법을 제시한다. 먼저 모델 중 불확실한 부분에 8개의 파라미터를 도입한 후, 베이지안 파라미터 추정법(Bayesian parameter estimation) 및 실험실 규모에서의 실험 결과들을 이용하여 파라미터들의 사후 확률 분포를 추정하였다. 얻어진 파라미터의 확률 분포들은 모델 및 실험의 불완전성으로 인해 나타나는 파라미터의 불확실성 및 다중 봉우리 특성을 반영하고 있다. 이를 이용하여 실험 결과를 잘 따라가는 확률론적 모델 예측치(stochastic model response)를 얻을 수 있었다. 16개의 실험 데이터셋 및 테스트셋의 피팅 에러(fitting error)는 결정론적인 최적화 알고리즘(deterministic optimization)을 사용할 때보다 비슷하거나 낮은 것으로 측정되었다. 수학적 최적화에 쓰이기에 너무 긴 시뮬레이션 시간 문제는 베이지안 최적화 알고리즘을 적용하여 해결할 수 있다. 화학 반응기 설계 최적화를 위해 본 논문에서는 다중 목적 베이지안 최적화(Multi-objective Bayesian Optimization, MBO)를 사용해 시뮬레이션 횟수를 최소화 하는 CFD 기반 최적 설계 방법을 제안하였다. 여섯 가지 설계 변수를 가지는 기-액 교반 탱크 반응기에서 전력 소비를 최소화하고 가스 분율(gas holdup)를 극대화하기 위해 이 방법을 이용한 결과, 단 100 회의 시뮬레이션 만으로 최적 파레토 커브(Pareto curve)를 얻을 수 있었다. 제안된 최적 설계안들은 문헌에 보고된 기존 반응기들과 비교해 뛰어난 성능을 보여주었다. . 본 논문을 통해 제안된 CFD 기반 구획 모델링법, 베이지안 모델 보정법 및 베이지안 최적화 방법은 복잡한 물리적 및 화학적 특징을 갖는 산업 규모의 화학 반응기에 적용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.This thesis presents a design strategy for industrial-scale chemical reactors which consists of multi-scale modeling, post-modeling calibration, and optimization. Although the reactor design problem is a primary step in the development of most chemical processes, it has been relied on simple models, experiments and rules of thumbs rather than taking advantage of recent numerical techniques. It is because industrial-size reactors show high complexity and scale differences both physically and chemically, which makes it difficult to be mathematically modeled. Even after the model is constructed, it suffers from inaccuracies and heavy simulation time to be applied in optimization algorithms. The complexity and scale difference problem in modeling can be solved by introducing multi-scale modeling approaches. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based compartmental model makes it possible to simulate hours of dynamics in large size reactors which show inhomogeneous mixing patterns. It regards the big reactor as a network of small zones in which perfect mixing can be assumed and solves mass and energy balance equations with kinetics and flow information adopted from CFD hydrodynamics model at each zone. An aqueous mineral carbonation reactor with complex gas–liquid–solid interacting flow patterns was modeled using this method. The model considers the gas-liquid mass transfer, solid dissolution, ionic reactions, precipitations, hydrodynamics, heat generation and thermodynamic changes by the reaction and discrete operational events in the form of differential algebraic equations (DAEs). The total CO2 removal efficiency, pH, and temperature changes were predicted and compared to real operation data. The errors were within 7 % without any post-adjustment. The inaccuracy problem of model can be overcome by post-modeling approach, such as the calibration with experiments. The model for aqueous mineral carbonation reactor was intensified via Bayesian calibration. Eight parameters were intrduced in the uncertain parts of the rigorous reactor model. Then the calibration was performed by estimating the parameter posterior distribution using Bayesian parameter estimation framework and lab-scale experiments. The developed Bayesian parameter estimation framework involves surrogate models, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with tempering, global optimization, and various analysis tools. The obtained parameter distributions reflected the uncertain or multimodal natures of the parameters due to the incompleteness of the model and the experiments. They were used to earn stochastic model responses which show good fits with the experimental results. The fitting errors of all the 16 datasets and the unseen test set were measured to be comparable or lower than when deterministic optimization methods are used. The heavy simulation time problem for mathematical optimization can be resolved by applying Bayesian optimizaion algorithm. CFD based optimal design tool for chemical reactors, in which multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MBO) is utilized to reduce the number of required CFD runs, is proposed. The developed optimizer was applied to minimize the power consumption and maximize the gas holdup in a gas-sparged stirred tank reactor, which has six design variables. The saturated Pareto front was obtained after only 100 iterations. The resulting Pareto front consists of many near-optimal designs with significantly enhanced performances compared to conventional reactors reported in the literature. It is anticipated that the suggested CFD-based compartmental modeling, post-modeling Bayesian calibration, and Bayesian optimization methods can be applied in general industrial-scale chemical reactors with complex physical and chemical features.1. Introduction 1 1.1. Industrial-scale chemical reactor design 1 1.2. Role of mathematical models in reactor design 2 1.3. Intensification of reactor models through calibration 5 1.3.1. Bayesian parameter estimation 6 1.4. Optimization of the reactor models 7 1.4.1. Bayesian optimization 9 1.5. Aqueous mineral carbonation process : case study subject 10 1.6. Outline of the thesis 12 2. Multi-scale modeling of industrial-scale aqueous mineral carbonation reactor for long-time dynamic simulation 14 2.1. Objective 14 2.2. Experimental setup 15 2.3. Mathematical models 19 2.3.1. Reactor model 19 2.3.2. CFD model 28 2.3.3. Numerical setting 30 2.4. Results and discussions 32 2.4.1. CFD-based compartmental model for industrial-scale reactor. 32 2.4.2. Design and simulation of higher-scale reactors 42 2.5. Conclusions 47 3. Model intensification of aqueous mineral carbonation kinetics via Bayesian calibration 50 3.1. Objective 50 3.2. Experimental methods 51 3.2.1. Solution and gas preparation 51 3.2.2. Laboratory-scale mineral carbonation process 53 3.3. Mathematical models 56 3.3.1. Kinetics of aqueous mineral carbonation process 56 3.3.2. Differential algebraic equation (DAE) model for the reactor 65 3.3.3. Discrete events for simulation procedure 71 3.3.4. Numerical setting 72 3.4. Bayesian parameter estimation 72 3.4.1. Problem formulation 73 3.4.2. Bayesian posterior inference 76 3.4.3. Sampling 81 3.5. Results and discussions 82 3.5.1. Stochastic output response 82 3.5.2. Quality of parameter estimtates 86 3.5.3. Assessment of parameter uncertainties 91 3.5.4. Kinetics study with the proposed model parameters 99 3.6. Conclusions 103 4. Multi-objective optimization of chemical reactor design using computational fluid dynamics 106 4.1. Objective 106 4.2. Problem Formulation 107 4.3. Optimization scheme 113 4.3.1. Multi-objective optimization algorithm 113 4.3.2. CFD-MBO optimizer 120 4.4. CFD modeling 125 4.4.1. Tank specifications 125 4.4.2. Governing equations 125 4.4.3. Simulation methods 127 4.5. Results and discussion 128 4.5.1. CFD model validation 128 4.5.2. Optimization results 130 4.5.3. Analysis of optimal designs 139 4.6. Conclusions 144 5. Concluding Remarks 146 Bibliography 149 Abstract in Korean (국문초록) 163Docto

Classification Algorithms based on Generalized Polynomial Chaos

Classification is one of the most important tasks in process system engineering. Since most of the classification algorithms are generally based on mathematical models, they inseparably involve the quantification and propagation of model uncertainty onto the variables used for classification. Such uncertainty may originate from either a lack of knowledge of the underlying process or from the intrinsic time varying phenomena such as unmeasured disturbances and noise. Often, model uncertainty has been modeled in a probabilistic way and Monte Carlo (MC) type sampling methods have been the method of choice for quantifying the effects of uncertainty. However, MC methods may be computationally prohibitive especially for nonlinear complex systems and systems involving many variables. Alternatively, stochastic spectral methods such as the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion have emerged as a promising technique that can be used for uncertainty quantification and propagation. Such methods can approximate the stochastic variables by a truncated gPC series where the coefficients of these series can be calculated by Galerkin projection with the mathematical models describing the process. Following these steps, the gPC expansion based methods can converge much faster to a solution than MC type sampling based methods. Using the gPC based uncertainty quantification and propagation method, this current project focuses on the following three problems: (i) fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) in the presence of stochastic faults entering the system; (ii) simultaneous optimal tuning of a FDD algorithm and a feedback controller to enhance the detectability of faults while mitigating the closed loop process variability; (iii) classification of apoptotic cells versus normal cells using morphological features identified from a stochastic image segmentation algorithm in combination with machine learning techniques. The algorithms developed in this work are shown to be highly efficient in terms of computational time, improved fault diagnosis and accurate classification of apoptotic versus normal cells

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Multiphysics Nuclear Reactor Core Depletion

Nuclear reactor simulation is a complex process described by the neutronic, thermal-hydraulic, and fuel thermo-mechanical behavior of the core components. In current generation reactor physics analysis these three areas are at best loosely coupled. Within this work, a methodology for tightly coupling the core neutronics code PARCS, thermal-hydraulics code PATHS, and fuel rod simulator code FRAPCON was developed. This coupled code package was applied to two fuel depletion problems. The behavior of the fuel-cladding gap and associated temperature drop was found to be important. The code package was then applied to the pin cell calculation to evaluate the uncertainty and sensitivity of the nuclear performance of the core due to the influence of fuel thermo-mechanical models available for manipulation in FRAPCON. A sensitivity study was conducted to determine which fuel models were influential on the neutronics outputs; we determined that fuel thermal conductivity, fuel thermal expansion, cladding creep, fuel swelling and heat transfer coefficient had an important influence on some neutronics parameters. The package was integrated within the DAKOTA uncertainty package. Two sampling-based methods and two stochastic expansion methods were used to evaluate the uncertainty in the nuclear parameters throughout core depletion. We found that the uncertainty in the core reactivity was approximately 60 pcm at the beginning of depletion, reducing to approximately 15 pcm by the end of life, due to the effect of plutonium buildup reducing the importance of fuel uncertainty on high-burnup fuel. We found that the response statistics could be well-estimated by a first-order tensor-product PCE expansion, only requiring 32 calculations. Using variance-based decomposition, we found that initially the most important models contributing to nuclear variance were the thermal conductivity and fuel thermal expansion models. Once the fuel-clad gap closes, however, fuel thermal conductivity uncertainty dominates the overall variance in the output. We also found that the importance of input interactions on overall variance is negligible; at worst case, interaction effects contribute ~3% of the overall variance in both Doppler temperature and reactivity.PhDNuclear Engineering and Radiological SciencesUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111444/1/asbiele_1.pd