A stigmergy-based analysis of city hotspots to discover trends and anomalies in urban transportation usage

A key aspect of a sustainable urban transportation system is the effectiveness of transportation policies. To be effective, a policy has to consider a broad range of elements, such as pollution emission, traffic flow, and human mobility. Due to the complexity and variability of these elements in the urban area, to produce effective policies remains a very challenging task. With the introduction of the smart city paradigm, a widely available amount of data can be generated in the urban spaces. Such data can be a fundamental source of knowledge to improve policies because they can reflect the sustainability issues underlying the city. In this context, we propose an approach to exploit urban positioning data based on stigmergy, a bio-inspired mechanism providing scalar and temporal aggregation of samples. By employing stigmergy, samples in proximity with each other are aggregated into a functional structure called trail. The trail summarizes relevant dynamics in data and allows matching them, providing a measure of their similarity. Moreover, this mechanism can be specialized to unfold specific dynamics. Specifically, we identify high-density urban areas (i.e hotspots), analyze their activity over time, and unfold anomalies. Moreover, by matching activity patterns, a continuous measure of the dissimilarity with respect to the typical activity pattern is provided. This measure can be used by policy makers to evaluate the effect of policies and change them dynamically. As a case study, we analyze taxi trip data gathered in Manhattan from 2013 to 2015.Comment: Preprin

Shape and Time Distortion Loss for Training Deep Time Series Forecasting Models

International audienceThis paper addresses the problem of time series forecasting for non-stationarysignals and multiple future steps prediction. To handle this challenging task, weintroduce DILATE (DIstortion Loss including shApe and TimE), a new objectivefunction for training deep neural networks. DILATE aims at accurately predictingsudden changes, and explicitly incorporates two terms supporting precise shapeand temporal change detection. We introduce a differentiable loss function suitablefor training deep neural nets, and provide a custom back-prop implementation forspeeding up optimization. We also introduce a variant of DILATE, which providesa smooth generalization of temporally-constrained Dynamic Time Warping (DTW).Experiments carried out on various non-stationary datasets reveal the very goodbehaviour of DILATE compared to models trained with the standard Mean SquaredError (MSE) loss function, and also to DTW and variants. DILATE is also agnosticto the choice of the model, and we highlight its benefit for training fully connectednetworks as well as specialized recurrent architectures, showing its capacity toimprove over state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting approaches

Data-driven unsupervised clustering of online learner behaviour

The widespread adoption of online courses opens opportunities for analysing learner behaviour and optimising web-based learning adapted to observed usage. Here we introduce a mathematical framework for the analysis of time series of online learner engagement, which allows the identification of clusters of learners with similar online temporal behaviour directly from the raw data without prescribing a priori subjective reference behaviours. The method uses a dynamic time warping kernel to create a pairwise similarity between time series of learner actions, and combines it with an unsupervised multiscale graph clustering algorithm to identify groups of learners with similar temporal behaviour. To showcase our approach, we analyse task completion data from a cohort of learners taking an online post-graduate degree at Imperial Business School. Our analysis reveals clusters of learners with statistically distinct patterns of engagement, from distributed to massed learning, with different levels of regularity, adherence to pre-planned course structure and task completion. The approach also reveals outlier learners with highly sporadic behaviour. A posteriori comparison against student performance shows that, whereas high performing learners are spread across clusters with diverse temporal engagement, low performers are located significantly in the massed learning cluster, and our unsupervised clustering identifies low performers more accurately than common machine learning classification methods trained on temporal statistics of the data. Finally, we test the applicability of the method by analysing two additional datasets: a different cohort of the same course, and time series of different format from another university

Socially Constrained Structural Learning for Groups Detection in Crowd

Modern crowd theories agree that collective behavior is the result of the underlying interactions among small groups of individuals. In this work, we propose a novel algorithm for detecting social groups in crowds by means of a Correlation Clustering procedure on people trajectories. The affinity between crowd members is learned through an online formulation of the Structural SVM framework and a set of specifically designed features characterizing both their physical and social identity, inspired by Proxemic theory, Granger causality, DTW and Heat-maps. To adhere to sociological observations, we introduce a loss function (G-MITRE) able to deal with the complexity of evaluating group detection performances. We show our algorithm achieves state-of-the-art results when relying on both ground truth trajectories and tracklets previously extracted by available detector/tracker systems

Statistical and deep learning methods for geoscience problems

Machine learning is the new frontier for technology development in geosciences and has developed extremely fast in the past decade. With the increased compute power provided by distributed computing and Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and their exploitation provided by machine learning (ML) frameworks such as Keras, Pytorch, and Tensorflow, ML algorithms can now solve complex scientific problems. Although powerful, ML algorithms need to be applied to suitable problems conditioned for optimal results. For this reason ML algorithms require not only a deep understanding of the problem but also of the algorithm’s ability. In this dissertation, I show that Simple statistical techniques can often outperform ML-based models if applied correctly. In this dissertation, I show the success of deep learning in addressing two difficult problems. In the first application I use deep learning to auto-detect the leaks in a carbon capture project using pressure field data acquired from the DOE Cranfield site in Mississippi. I use the history of pressure, rates, and cumulative injection volumes to detect leaks as pressure anomaly. I use a different deep learning workflow to forecast high-energy electrons in Earth’s outer radiation belt using in situ measurements of different space weather parameters such as solar wind density and pressure. I focus on predicting electron fluxes of 2 MeV and higher energy and introduce the ensemble of deep learning models to further improve the results as compared to using a single deep learning architecture. I also show an example where a carefully constructed statistical approach, guided by the human interpreter, outperforms deep learning algorithms implemented by others. Here, the goal is to correlate multiple well logs across a survey area in order to map not only the thickness, but also to characterize the behavior of stacked gamma ray parasequence sets. Using tools including maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and dynamic time warping (DTW) provides a means of generating quantitative maps of upward fining and upward coarsening across the oil field. The ultimate goal is to link such extensive well control with the spectral attribute signature of 3D seismic data volumes to provide a detailed maps of not only the depositional history, but also insight into lateral and vertical variation of mineralogy important to the effective completion of shale resource plays