Enabling electronic prognostics using thermal data

Prognostics is a process of assessing the extent of deviation or degradation of a product from its expected normal operating condition, and then, based on continuous monitoring, predicting the future reliability of the product. By being able to determine when a product will fail, procedures can be developed to provide advanced warning of failures, optimize maintenance, reduce life cycle costs, and improve the design, qualification and logistical support of fielded and future systems. In the case of electronics, the reliability is often influenced by thermal loads, in the form of steady-state temperatures, power cycles, temperature gradients, ramp rates, and dwell times. If one can continuously monitor the thermal loads, in-situ, this data can be used in conjunction with precursor reasoning algorithms and stress-and-damage models to enable prognostics. This paper discusses approaches to enable electronic prognostics and provides a case study of prognostics using thermal data.Comment: Submitted on behalf of TIMA Editions (http://irevues.inist.fr/tima-editions

Development of an ontology supporting failure analysis of surface safety valves used in Oil & Gas applications

Treball desenvolupat dins el marc del programa 'European Project Semester'.The project describes how to apply Root Cause Analysis (RCA) in the form of a Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) on hydraulically actuated Surface Safety Valves (SSVs) of Xmas trees in oil and gas applications, in order to be able to predict the occurrence of failures and implement preventive measures such as Condition and Performance Monitoring (CPM) to improve the life-span of a valve and decrease maintenance downtime. In the oil and gas industry, valves account for 52% of failures in the system. If these failures happen unexpectedly it can cause a lot of problems. Downtime of the oil well quickly becomes an expensive problem, unscheduled maintenance takes a lot of extra time and the lead-time for replacement parts can be up to 6 months. This is why being able to predict these failures beforehand is something that can bring a lot of benefits to a company. To determine the best course of action to take in order to be able to predict failures, a FMECA report is created. This is an analysis where all possible failures of all components are catalogued and given a Risk Priority Number (RPN), which has three variables: severity, detectability and occurrence. Each of these is given a rating between 0 and 10 and then the variables are multiplied with each other, resulting in the RPN. The components with an RPN above an acceptable risk level are then further investigated to see how to be able to detect them beforehand and how to mitigate the risk that they pose. Applying FMECA to the SSV mean breaking the system down into its components and determining the function, dependency and possible failures. To this end, the SSV is broken up into three sub-systems: the valve, the actuator and the hydraulic system. The hydraulic system is the sub-system of the SSV responsible for containing, transporting and pressurizing of the hydraulic fluid and in turn, the actuator. It also contains all the safety features, such as pressure pilots, and a trip system in case a problem is detected in the oil line. The actuator is, as the name implies, the sub-system which opens and closes the valve. It is made up of a number of parts such as a cylinder, a piston and a spring. These parts are interconnected in a number of ways to allow the actuator to successfully perform its function. The valve is the actual part of the system which interacts with the oil line by opening and closing. Like the actuator, this sub-system is broken down into a number of parts which work together to perform its function. After breaking down and defining each subsystem on a functional level, a model was created using a functional block diagram. Each component also allows for the defining of dependencies and interactions between the different components and a failure diagram for each component. This model integrates the three sub-systems back into one, creating a complete picture of the entire system which can then be used to determine the effects of different failures in components to the rest of the system. With this model completed we created a comprehensive FMECA report and test the different possible CPM solutions to mitigate the largest risks

Overview of Remaining Useful Life prediction techniques in Through-life Engineering Services

Through-life Engineering Services (TES) are essential in the manufacture and servicing of complex engineering products. TES improves support services by providing prognosis of run-to-failure and time-to-failure on-demand data for better decision making. The concept of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is utilised to predict life-span of components (of a service system) with the purpose of minimising catastrophic failure events in both manufacturing and service sectors. The purpose of this paper is to identify failure mechanisms and emphasise the failure events prediction approaches that can effectively reduce uncertainties. It will demonstrate the classification of techniques used in RUL prediction for optimisation of products’ future use based on current products in-service with regards to predictability, availability and reliability. It presents a mapping of degradation mechanisms against techniques for knowledge acquisition with the objective of presenting to designers and manufacturers ways to improve the life-span of components

On systematic approaches for interpreted information transfer of inspection data from bridge models to structural analysis

In conjunction with the improved methods of monitoring damage and degradation processes, the interest in reliability assessment of reinforced concrete bridges is increasing in recent years. Automated imagebased inspections of the structural surface provide valuable data to extract quantitative information about deteriorations, such as crack patterns. However, the knowledge gain results from processing this information in a structural context, i.e. relating the damage artifacts to building components. This way, transformation to structural analysis is enabled. This approach sets two further requirements: availability of structural bridge information and a standardized storage for interoperability with subsequent analysis tools. Since the involved large datasets are only efficiently processed in an automated manner, the implementation of the complete workflow from damage and building data to structural analysis is targeted in this work. First, domain concepts are derived from the back-end tasks: structural analysis, damage modeling, and life-cycle assessment. The common interoperability format, the Industry Foundation Class (IFC), and processes in these domains are further assessed. The need for usercontrolled interpretation steps is identified and the developed prototype thus allows interaction at subsequent model stages. The latter has the advantage that interpretation steps can be individually separated into either a structural analysis or a damage information model or a combination of both. This approach to damage information processing from the perspective of structural analysis is then validated in different case studies

Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems

Hlavní cílem dizertace je poskytnutí uceleného pohledu na problematiku technické prognostiky, která nachází uplatnění v tzv. prediktivní údržbě založené na trvalém monitorování zařízení a odhadu úrovně degradace systému či jeho zbývající životnosti a to zejména v oblasti komplexních zařízení a strojů. V současnosti je technická diagnostika poměrně dobře zmapovaná a reálně nasazená na rozdíl od technické prognostiky, která je stále rozvíjejícím se oborem, který ovšem postrádá větší množství reálných aplikaci a navíc ne všechny metody jsou dostatečně přesné a aplikovatelné pro embedded systémy. Dizertační práce přináší přehled základních metod použitelných pro účely predikce zbývající užitné životnosti, jsou zde popsány metriky pomocí, kterých je možné jednotlivé přístupy porovnávat ať už z pohledu přesnosti, ale také i z pohledu výpočetní náročnosti. Jedno z dizertačních jader tvoří doporučení a postup pro výběr vhodné prognostické metody s ohledem na prognostická kritéria. Dalším dizertačním jádrem je představení tzv. částicového filtrovaní (particle filtering) vhodné pro model-based prognostiku s ověřením jejich implementace a porovnáním. Hlavní dizertační jádro reprezentuje případovou studii pro velmi aktuální téma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalé monitorování. Případová studie demonstruje proces prognostiky založené na modelu a srovnává možné přístupy jednak pro odhad doby před vybitím baterie, ale také sleduje možné vlivy na degradaci baterie. Součástí práce je základní ověření modelu Li-Ion baterie a návrh prognostického procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.

Continuous maintenance and the future – Foundations and technological challenges

High value and long life products require continuous maintenance throughout their life cycle to achieve required performance with optimum through-life cost. This paper presents foundations and technologies required to offer the maintenance service. Component and system level degradation science, assessment and modelling along with life cycle ‘big data’ analytics are the two most important knowledge and skill base required for the continuous maintenance. Advanced computing and visualisation technologies will improve efficiency of the maintenance and reduce through-life cost of the product. Future of continuous maintenance within the Industry 4.0 context also identifies the role of IoT, standards and cyber security

Innovation and failure in mechatronics design education

Innovative engineering design always has associated with it the risk of failure, and it is the role of the design engineer to mitigate the possibilities of failure in the final system. Education should however provide a safe space for students to both innovate and to learn about and from failures. However, pressures on course designers and students can result in their adopting a conservative, and risk averse, approach to problem solving. The paper therefore considers the nature of both innovation and failure, and looks at how these might be effectively combined within mechatronics design education