Multiclass Prediction Model for Student Grade Prediction Using Machine Learning

This work was supported in part by the Ministry of Higher Education through the Fundamental Research Scheme under Grant FRGS/1/2018/ICT04/UTM/01/1, in part by the Speci~c Research Project (SPEV) at the Faculty of Informatics and Management, University of Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic, under Grant 2102-2021, in part by the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) under Research University Grant Vot-20H04, and in part by the Malaysia Research University Network (MRUN) under Grant Vot 4L876.Today, predictive analytics applications became an urgent desire in higher educational institutions. Predictive analytics used advanced analytics that encompasses machine learning implementation to derive high-quality performance and meaningful information for all education levels. Mostly know that student grade is one of the key performance indicators that can help educators monitor their academic performance. During the past decade, researchers have proposed many variants of machine learning techniques in education domains. However, there are severe challenges in handling imbalanced datasets for enhancing the performance of predicting student grades. Therefore, this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of machine learning techniques to predict the nal student grades in the rst semester courses by improving the performance of predictive accuracy. Two modules will be highlighted in this paper. First, we compare the accuracy performance of six well-known machine learning techniques namely Decision Tree (J48), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes (NB), K-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Logistic Regression (LR) and Random Forest (RF) using 1282 real student's course grade dataset. Second, we proposed a multiclass prediction model to reduce the over tting and misclassi cation results caused by imbalanced multi-classi cation based on oversampling Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) with two features selection methods. The obtained results showthat the proposed model integrates with RF give signi cant improvement with the highest f-measure of 99.5%. This proposed model indicates the comparable and promising results that can enhance the prediction performance model for imbalanced multi-classi cation for student grade prediction.Science and Technology Development Fund (STDF)Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MHESR) FRGS/1/2018/ICT04/UTM/01/1Specific Research Project (SPEV) at the Faculty of Informatics and Management, University of Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic 2102-2021Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Vot-20H04Malaysia Research University Network (MRUN) 4L87