Data classification and forecasting using the Mahalanobis-Taguchi method

Classification and forecasting are useful concepts in the field of condition monitoring. Condition monitoring refers to the analysis and monitoring of system characteristics to understand and identify deviations from normal operating conditions. This can be performed for prediction, diagnosis, or prognosis or a combination of any these purposes. Fault identification and diagnosis are usually achieved through data classification, while forecasting methods are usually used to accomplish the prediction objective. Data gathered from monitoring systems often consists of multiple multivariate time series and is fed into a model for data analysis using various techniques. One of the data analysis techniques used is the Mahalanobis-Taguchi strategy (MTS) because of its suitability for multivariate data analysis. MTS provides a means of extracting information in a multidimensional system by integrating information from different variables into a single composite metric. MTS is used to conduct analysis on the measurement parameters and seeks a correlation with the result while also seeking to optimize the analysis by identifying variables of importance strongly correlated with a defect or fault occurrence. This research presents the application of a MTS based system for predicting faults in heavy duty vehicles and the application of MTS in a multiclass classification problem. The benefits and practicality of the methodology in industrial applications are demonstrated through the use of real world data and discussion of results. --Abstract, page iv

CONSTRAINED MULTI-GROUP PROJECT ALLOCATION USING MAHALANOBIS DISTANCE

Optimal allocation is one of the most active research areas in operation research using binary integer variables. The allocation of multi constrained projects among several options available along a given planning horizon is an especially significant problem in the general area of item classification. The main goal of this dissertation is to develop an analytical approach for selecting projects that would be most attractive from an economic point of view to be developed or allocated among several options, such as in-house engineers and private contractors (in transportation projects). A relevant limiting resource in addition to the availability of funds is the in-house manpower availability. In this thesis, the concept of Mahalanobis distance (MD) will be used as the classification criterion. This is a generalization of the Euclidean distance that takes into account the correlation of the characteristics defining the scope of a project. The desirability of a given project to be allocated to an option is defined in terms of its MD to that particular option. Ideally, each project should be allocated to its closest option. This, however, may not be possible because of the available levels of each relevant resource. The allocation process is formulated mathematically using two Binary Integer Programming (BIP) models. The first formulation maximizes the dollar value of benefits derived by the traveling public from those projects being implemented subject to a budget, total sum of MD, and in-house manpower constraints. The second formulation minimizes the total sum of MD subject to a budget and the in-house manpower constraints. The proposed solution methodology for the BIP models is based on the branchand- bound method. In particular, one of the contributions of this dissertation is the development of a strategy for branching variables and node selection that is consistent with allocation priorities based on MD to improve the branch-and-bound performance level as well as handle a large scale application. The suggested allocation process includes: (a) multiple allocation groups; (b) multiple constraints; (c) different BIP models. Numerical experiments with different projects and options are considered to illustrate the application of the proposed approach

Sensor data-based decision making

Increasing globalization and growing industrial system complexity has amplified the interest in the use of information provided by sensors as a means of improving overall manufacturing system performance and maintainability. However, utilization of sensors can only be effective if the real-time data can be integrated into the necessary business processes, such as production planning, scheduling and execution systems. This integration requires the development of intelligent decision making models that can effectively process the sensor data into information and suggest appropriate actions. To be able to improve the performance of a system, the health of the system also needs to be maintained. In many cases a single sensor type cannot provide sufficient information for complex decision making including diagnostics and prognostics of a system. Therefore, a combination of sensors should be used in an integrated manner in order to achieve desired performance levels. Sensor generated data need to be processed into information through the use of appropriate decision making models in order to improve overall performance. In this dissertation, which is presented as a collection of five journal papers, several reactive and proactive decision making models that utilize data from single and multi-sensor environments are developed. The first paper presents a testbed architecture for Auto-ID systems. An adaptive inventory management model which utilizes real-time RFID data is developed in the second paper. In the third paper, a complete hardware and inventory management solution, which involves the integration of RFID sensors into an extremely low temperature industrial freezer, is presented. The last two papers in the dissertation deal with diagnostic and prognostic decision making models in order to assure the healthy operation of a manufacturing system and its components. In the fourth paper a Mahalanobis-Taguchi System (MTS) based prognostics tool is developed and it is used to estimate the remaining useful life of rolling element bearings using data acquired from vibration sensors. In the final paper, an MTS based prognostics tool is developed for a centrifugal water pump, which fuses information from multiple types of sensors in order to take diagnostic and prognostics decisions for the pump and its components --Abstract, page iv

DEVELOPMENT OF DIAGNOSTIC AND PROGNOSTIC METHODOLOGIES FOR ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS BASED ON MAHALANOBIS DISTANCE

Diagnostic and prognostic capabilities are one aspect of the many interrelated and complementary functions in the field of Prognostic and Health Management (PHM). These capabilities are sought after by industries in order to provide maximum operational availability of their products, maximum usage life, minimum periodic maintenance inspections, lower inventory cost, accurate tracking of part life, and no false alarms. Several challenges associated with the development and implementation of these capabilities are the consideration of a system's dynamic behavior under various operating environments; complex system architecture where the components that form the overall system have complex interactions with each other with feed-forward and feedback loops of instructions; the unavailability of failure precursors; unseen events; and the absence of unique mathematical techniques that can address fault and failure events in various multivariate systems. The Mahalanobis distance methodology distinguishes multivariable data groups in a multivariate system by a univariate distance measure calculated from the normalized value of performance parameters and their correlation coefficients. The Mahalanobis distance measure does not suffer from the scaling effect--a situation where the variability of one parameter masks the variability of another parameter, which happens when the measurement ranges or scales of two parameters are different. A literature review showed that the Mahalanobis distance has been used for classification purposes. In this thesis, the Mahalanobis distance measure is utilized for fault detection, fault isolation, degradation identification, and prognostics. For fault detection, a probabilistic approach is developed to establish threshold Mahalanobis distance, such that presence of a fault in a product can be identified and the product can be classified as healthy or unhealthy. A technique is presented to construct a control chart for Mahalanobis distance for detecting trends and biasness in system health or performance. An error function is defined to establish fault-specific threshold Mahalanobis distance. A fault isolation approach is developed to isolate faults by identifying parameters that are associated with that fault. This approach utilizes the design-of-experiment concept for calculating residual Mahalanobis distance for each parameter (i.e., the contribution of each parameter to a system's health determination). An expected contribution range for each parameter estimated from the distribution of residual Mahalanobis distance is used to isolate the parameters that are responsible for a system's anomalous behavior. A methodology to detect degradation in a system's health using a health indicator is developed. The health indicator is defined as the weighted sum of a histogram bin's fractional contribution. The histogram's optimal bin width is determined from the number of data points in a moving window. This moving window approach is utilized for progressive estimation of the health indicator over time. The health indicator is compared with a threshold value defined from the system's healthy data to indicate the system's health or performance degradation. A symbolic time series-based health assessment approach is developed. Prognostic measures are defined for detecting anomalies in a product and predicting a product's time and probability of approaching a faulty condition. These measures are computed from a hidden Markov model developed from the symbolic representation of product dynamics. The symbolic representation of a product's dynamics is obtained by representing a Mahalanobis distance time series in symbolic form. Case studies were performed to demonstrate the capability of the proposed methodology for real time health monitoring. Notebook computers were exposed to a set of environmental conditions representative of the extremes of their life cycle profiles. The performance parameters were monitored in situ during the experiments, and the resulting data were used as a training dataset. The dataset was also used to identify specific parameter behavior, estimate correlation among parameters, and extract features for defining a healthy baseline. Field-returned computer data and data corresponding to artificially injected faults in computers were used as test data

Software defect prediction using maximal information coefficient and fast correlation-based filter feature selection

Software quality ensures that applications that are developed are failure free. Some modern systems are intricate, due to the complexity of their information processes. Software fault prediction is an important quality assurance activity, since it is a mechanism that correctly predicts the defect proneness of modules and classifies modules that saves resources, time and developers’ efforts. In this study, a model that selects relevant features that can be used in defect prediction was proposed. The literature was reviewed and it revealed that process metrics are better predictors of defects in version systems and are based on historic source code over time. These metrics are extracted from the source-code module and include, for example, the number of additions and deletions from the source code, the number of distinct committers and the number of modified lines. In this research, defect prediction was conducted using open source software (OSS) of software product line(s) (SPL), hence process metrics were chosen. Data sets that are used in defect prediction may contain non-significant and redundant attributes that may affect the accuracy of machine-learning algorithms. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of classification models, features that are significant in the defect prediction process are utilised. In machine learning, feature selection techniques are applied in the identification of the relevant data. Feature selection is a pre-processing step that helps to reduce the dimensionality of data in machine learning. Feature selection techniques include information theoretic methods that are based on the entropy concept. This study experimented the efficiency of the feature selection techniques. It was realised that software defect prediction using significant attributes improves the prediction accuracy. A novel MICFastCR model, which is based on the Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) was developed to select significant attributes and Fast Correlation Based Filter (FCBF) to eliminate redundant attributes. Machine learning algorithms were then run to predict software defects. The MICFastCR achieved the highest prediction accuracy as reported by various performance measures.School of ComputingPh. D. (Computer Science

Combining adaptive and designed statistical experimentation : process improvement, data classification, experimental optimization and model building

Thesis (Sc. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2009.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Includes bibliographical references.Research interest in the use of adaptive experimentation has returned recently. This historic technique adapts and learns from each experimental run but requires quick runs and large effects. The basis of this renewed interest is to improve experimental response and it is supported by fast, deterministic computer experiments and better post-experiment data analysis. The unifying concept of this thesis is to present and evaluate new ways of using adaptive experimentation combined with the traditional statistical experiment. The first application uses an adaptive experiment as a preliminary step to a more traditional experimental design. This provides experimental redundancy as well as greater model robustness. The number of extra runs is minimal because some are common and yet both methods provide estimates of the best setting. The second use of adaptive experimentation is in evolutionary operation. During regular system operation small, nearly unnoticeable, variable changes can be used to improve production dynamically. If these small changes follow an adaptive procedure there is high likelihood of improvement and integrating into the larger process development. Outside of the experimentation framework the adaptive procedure is shown to combine with other procedures and yield benefit. Two examples used here are an unconstrained numerical optimization procedure as well as classification parameter selection. The final area of new application is to create models that are a combination of an adaptive experiment with a traditional statistical experiment.(cont.) Two distinct areas are examined, first, the use of the adaptive experiment to determine the covariance structure, and second, the direct incorporation of both data sets in an augmented model. Both of these applications are Bayesian with a heavy reliance on numerical computation and simulation to determine the combined model. The two experiments investigated could be performed on the same physical or analytical model but are also extended to situations with different fidelity models. The potential for including non-analytical, even human, models is also discussed. The evaluative portion of this thesis begins with an analytic foundation that outlines the usefulness as well as the limitations of the procedure. This is followed by a demonstration using a simulated model and finally specific examples are drawn from the literature and reworked using the method. The utility of the final result is to provide a foundation to integrate adaptive experimentation with traditional designed experiments. Giving industrial practitioners a solid background and demonstrated foundation should help to codify this integration. The final procedures represent a minimal departure from current practice but represent significant modeling and analysis improvement.by Chad Ryan Foster.Sc.D

SVM-RFE Based Feature Selection and Taguchi Parameters Optimization for Multiclass SVM Classifier

Recently, support vector machine (SVM) has excellent performance on classification and prediction and is widely used on disease diagnosis or medical assistance. However, SVM only functions well on two-group classification problems. This study combines feature selection and SVM recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) to investigate the classification accuracy of multiclass problems for Dermatology and Zoo databases. Dermatology dataset contains 33 feature variables, 1 class variable, and 366 testing instances; and the Zoo dataset contains 16 feature variables, 1 class variable, and 101 testing instances. The feature variables in the two datasets were sorted in descending order by explanatory power, and different feature sets were selected by SVM-RFE to explore classification accuracy. Meanwhile, Taguchi method was jointly combined with SVM classifier in order to optimize parameters C and γ to increase classification accuracy for multiclass classification. The experimental results show that the classification accuracy can be more than 95% after SVM-RFE feature selection and Taguchi parameter optimization for Dermatology and Zoo databases

Hyperspectral Imagery Target Detection Using Improved Anomaly Detection and Signature Matching Methods

This research extends the field of hyperspectral target detection by developing autonomous anomaly detection and signature matching methodologies that reduce false alarms relative to existing benchmark detectors, and are practical for use in an operational environment. The proposed anomaly detection methodology adapts multivariate outlier detection algorithms for use with hyperspectral datasets containing tens of thousands of non-homogeneous, high-dimensional spectral signatures. In so doing, the limitations of existing, non-robust, anomaly detectors are identified, an autonomous clustering methodology is developed to divide an image into homogeneous background materials, and competing multivariate outlier detection methods are evaluated for their ability to uncover hyperspectral anomalies. To arrive at a final detection algorithm, robust parameter design methods are employed to determine parameter settings that achieve good detection performance over a range of hyperspectral images and targets, thereby removing the burden of these decisions from the user. The final anomaly detection algorithm is tested against existing local and global anomaly detectors, and is shown to achieve superior detection accuracy when applied to a diverse set of hyperspectral images. The proposed signature matching methodology employs image-based atmospheric correction techniques in an automated process to transform a target reflectance signature library into a set of image signatures. This set of signatures is combined with an existing linear filter to form a target detector that is shown to perform as well or better relative to detectors that rely on complicated, information-intensive, atmospheric correction schemes. The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed using a range of target materials in both woodland and desert hyperspectral scenes