Quantile-based optimization under uncertainties using adaptive Kriging surrogate models

Uncertainties are inherent to real-world systems. Taking them into account is crucial in industrial design problems and this might be achieved through reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) techniques. In this paper, we propose a quantile-based approach to solve RBDO problems. We first transform the safety constraints usually formulated as admissible probabilities of failure into constraints on quantiles of the performance criteria. In this formulation, the quantile level controls the degree of conservatism of the design. Starting with the premise that industrial applications often involve high-fidelity and time-consuming computational models, the proposed approach makes use of Kriging surrogate models (a.k.a. Gaussian process modeling). Thanks to the Kriging variance (a measure of the local accuracy of the surrogate), we derive a procedure with two stages of enrichment of the design of computer experiments (DoE) used to construct the surrogate model. The first stage globally reduces the Kriging epistemic uncertainty and adds points in the vicinity of the limit-state surfaces describing the system performance to be attained. The second stage locally checks, and if necessary, improves the accuracy of the quantiles estimated along the optimization iterations. Applications to three analytical examples and to the optimal design of a car body subsystem (minimal mass under mechanical safety constraints) show the accuracy and the remarkable efficiency brought by the proposed procedure

Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Surrogate modelling for reliability assessment of cutting tools

Currently, cutting tool life for machining operations is correlated to process parameters through the widely applied Taylor functions. The latter are valuable expressions in established practice however their generalised nature does not allow accurate prediction of the tool’s service life or optimization of the manufacturing process due to effects of uncertainties in various input variables. These variables should be treated in a stochastic way in order to avoid employment of safety factors for quantification of uncertainty. This paper documents a procedure that allows derivation of analytical expressions for cutting tools performance employing advanced approximation methods and concepts of reliability analysis. Due to the complexity of manufacturing processes surrogate modelling (SM) methods are applied, starting from a few sample points obtained through lab or soft experiments and extending them to models able to predict/estimate the values of control values/indicators as a function of the key design variables, often referred to as limit states

Reliability assessment of cutting tool life based on surrogate approximation methods

A novel reliability estimation approach to the cutting tools based on advanced approximation methods is proposed. Methods such as the stochastic response surface and surrogate modeling are tested, starting from a few sample points obtained through fundamental experiments and extending them to models able to estimate the tool wear as a function of the key process parameters. Subsequently, different reliability analysis methods are employed such as Monte Carlo simulations and first- and second-order reliability methods. In the present study, these reliability analysis methods are assessed for estimating the reliability of cutting tools. The results show that the proposed method is an efficient method for assessing the reliability of the cutting tool based on the minimum number of experimental results. Experimental verification for the case of high-speed turning confirms the findings of the present study for cutting tools under flank wear

Airborne LiDAR for DEM generation: some critical issues

Airborne LiDAR is one of the most effective and reliable means of terrain data collection. Using LiDAR data for DEM generation is becoming a standard practice in spatial related areas. However, the effective processing of the raw LiDAR data and the generation of an efficient and high-quality DEM remain big challenges. This paper reviews the recent advances of airborne LiDAR systems and the use of LiDAR data for DEM generation, with special focus on LiDAR data filters, interpolation methods, DEM resolution, and LiDAR data reduction. Separating LiDAR points into ground and non-ground is the most critical and difficult step for DEM generation from LiDAR data. Commonly used and most recently developed LiDAR filtering methods are presented. Interpolation methods and choices of suitable interpolator and DEM resolution for LiDAR DEM generation are discussed in detail. In order to reduce the data redundancy and increase the efficiency in terms of storage and manipulation, LiDAR data reduction is required in the process of DEM generation. Feature specific elements such as breaklines contribute significantly to DEM quality. Therefore, data reduction should be conducted in such a way that critical elements are kept while less important elements are removed. Given the highdensity characteristic of LiDAR data, breaklines can be directly extracted from LiDAR data. Extraction of breaklines and integration of the breaklines into DEM generation are presented