Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-Based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life (EOL). EOL is predicted based on the estimated current state distribution of a component and expected profiles of future usage. In general, this requires simulations of the component using the underlying models. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based prediction methodology that achieves computational efficiency by performing only the minimal number of simulations needed in order to accurately approximate the mean and variance of the complete EOL distribution. This is performed through the use of the unscented transform, which predicts the means and covariances of a distribution passed through a nonlinear transformation. In this case, the EOL simulation acts as that nonlinear transformation. In this paper, we review the unscented transform, and describe how this concept is applied to efficient EOL prediction. As a case study, we develop a physics-based model of a solenoid valve, and perform simulation experiments to demonstrate improved computational efficiency without sacrificing prediction accuracy

A Testbed for Implementing Prognostic Methodologies on Cryogenic Propellant Loading Systems

Prognostics technologies determine the health state of a system and predict its remaining useful life. With this information, operators are able to make maintenance-related decisions, thus effectively streamlining operational and mission-level activities. Experimentation on testbeds representative of critical systems is very useful for the maturation of prognostics technology; precise emulation of actual fault conditions on such a testbed further validates these technologies. In this paper we present the development of a pneumatic valve testbed, initial experimental results and progress towards the maturation and validation of component-level prognostic methods in the context of cryogenic refueling operations. The pneumatic valve testbed allows for the injection of time-varying leaks with specified damage progression profiles in order to emulate common valve faults. The pneumatic valve testbed also contains a battery used to power some pneumatic components, enabling the study of the effects of battery degradation on the operation of the valves

A Bayesian approach to fault identification in the presence of multi-component degradation

Fault diagnosis typically consists of fault detection, isolation and identification. Fault detection and isolation determine the presence of a fault in a system and the location of the fault. Fault identification then aims at determining the severity level of the fault. In a practical sense, a fault is a conditional interruption of the system ability to achieve a required function under specified operating condition; degradation is the deviation of one or more characteristic parameters of the component from acceptable conditions and is often a main cause for fault generation. A fault occurs when the degradation exceeds an allowable threshold. From the point a new aircraft takes off for the first time all of its components start to degrade, and yet in almost all studies it is presumed that we can identify a single fault in isolation, i.e. without considering multi-component degradation in the system. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to identify a single fault in an aircraft fuel system with consideration of multi-component degradation. Based on the conditional probabilities of sensor readings for a specific fault, a Bayesian method is presented to integrate distributed sensory information and calculate the likelihood of all possible fault severity levels. The proposed framework is implemented on an experimental aircraft fuel rig which illustrates the applicability of the proposed method

PreMa: Predictive Maintenance of Solenoid Valve in Real-Time at Embedded Edge-Level

In industrial process automation, sensors (pressure, temperature, etc.), controllers, and actuators (solenoid valves, electro-mechanical relays, circuit breakers, motors, etc.) make sure that production lines are working under the pre-defined conditions. When these systems malfunction or sometimes completely fail, alerts have to be generated in real-time to make sure not only production quality is not compromised but also safety of humans and equipment is assured. In this work, we describe the construction of a smart and real-time edge-based electronic product called PreMa, which is basically a sensor for monitoring the health of a Solenoid Valve (SV). PreMa is compact, low power, easy to install, and cost effective. It has data fidelity and measurement accuracy comparable to signals captured using high end equipment. The smart solenoid sensor runs TinyML, a compact version of TensorFlow (a.k.a. TFLite) machine learning framework. While fault detection inferencing is in-situ, model training uses mobile phones to accomplish the `on-device' training. Our product evaluation shows that the sensor is able to differentiate between the distinct types of faults. These faults include: (a) Spool stuck (b) Spring failure and (c) Under voltage. Furthermore, the product provides maintenance personnel, the remaining useful life (RUL) of the SV. The RUL provides assistance to decide valve replacement or otherwise. We perform an extensive evaluation on optimizing metrics related to performance of the entire system (i.e. embedded platform and the neural network model). The proposed implementation is such that, given any electro-mechanical actuator with similar transient response to that of the SV, the system is capable of condition monitoring, hence presenting a first of its kind generic infrastructure

Fault Detection and Diagnosis Methods for Fluid Power Pitch System Components – A Review

Wind turbines have become a significant part of the global power production and are still increasing in capacity. Pitch systems are an important part of modern wind turbines where they are used to apply aerodynamic braking for power regulation and emergency shutdowns. Studies have shown that the pitch system is responsible for up to 20% of the total down time of a wind turbine. Reducing the down time is an important factor for decreasing the total cost of energy of wind energy in order to make wind energy more competitive. Due to this, attention has come to condition monitoring and fault detection of such systems as an attempt to increase the reliability and availability, hereby the reducing the turbine downtime. Some methods for fault detection and condition monitoring of fluid power systems do exists, though not many are used in today’s pitch systems. This paper gives an overview of fault detection and condition monitoring methods of fluid power systems similar to fluid power pitch systems in wind turbines and discuss their applicability in relation to pitch systems. The purpose is to give an overview of which methods that exist and to find areas where new methods need to be developed or existing need to be modified. The paper goes through the most important components of a pitch system and discuss the existing methods related to each type of component. Furthermore, it is considered if existing methods can be used for fluid power pitch systems for wind turbine

Failure Diagnosis and Prognosis of Safety Critical Systems: Applications in Aerospace Industries

Many safety-critical systems such as aircraft, space crafts, and large power plants are required to operate in a reliable and efficient working condition without any performance degradation. As a result, fault diagnosis and prognosis (FDP) is a research topic of great interest in these systems. FDP systems attempt to use historical and current data of a system, which are collected from various measurements to detect faults, diagnose the types of possible failures, predict and manage failures in advance. This thesis deals with FDP of safety-critical systems. For this purpose, two critical systems including a multifunctional spoiler (MFS) and hydro-control value system are considered, and some challenging issues from the FDP are investigated. This research work consists of three general directions, i.e., monitoring, failure diagnosis, and prognosis. The proposed FDP methods are based on data-driven and model-based approaches. The main aim of the data-driven methods is to utilize measurement data from the system and forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of the faulty components accurately and efficiently. In this regard, two dierent methods are developed. A modular FDP method based on a divide and conquer strategy is presented for the MFS system. The modular structure contains three components:1) fault diagnosis unit, 2) failure parameter estimation unit and 3) RUL unit. The fault diagnosis unit identifies types of faults based on an integration of neural network (NN) method and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) technique. Failure parameter estimation unit observes the failure parameter via a distributed neural network. Afterward, the RUL of the system is predicted by an adaptive Bayesian method. In another work, an innovative data-driven FDP method is developed for hydro-control valve systems. The idea is to use redundancy in multi-sensor data information and enhance the performance of the FDP system. Therefore, a combination of a feature selection method and support vector machine (SVM) method is applied to select proper sensors for monitoring of the hydro-valve system and isolate types of fault. Then, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) method is used to estimate the failure path. Similarly, an online Bayesian algorithm is implemented for forecasting RUL. Model-based methods employ high-delity physics-based model of a system for prognosis task. In this thesis, a novel model-based approach based on an integrated extended Kalman lter (EKF) and Bayesian method is introduced for the MFS system. To monitor the MFS system, a residual estimation method using EKF is performed to capture the progress of the failure. Later, a transformation is utilized to obtain a new measure to estimate the degradation path (DP). Moreover, the recursive Bayesian algorithm is invoked to predict the RUL. Finally, relative accuracy (RA) measure is utilized to assess the performance of the proposed methods

An improved first-principle model of AC powered solenoid operated valves for maintenance applications

Solenoid operated valves (SOVs) are critical components in many industrial applications. There has been a continuing interest in the industry to have robust condition monitoring, prognostics and health management tools to support the condition based maintenance and predictive maintenance program for such valves. For critical assets like SOVs, it is of paramount interest to understand why a component might be declared as defective. In such a situation, a first principle-model based approach will always be preferred to a purely data-driven approach, because of its inherent interpretability. Furthermore, first principle-models typically have less free parameters than their data driven counterparts and will require less data to identify their parameters. In this paper, we present the improvement of a first-principle model of alternating current (AC) powered SOVs taking into account two important degradation effects. Using this model, we show that the state of degradation can be estimated from current and input voltage measurement signals on the solenoids. Our method is validated using data from an accelerated life test campaign on 48 identical AC-powered SOVs

Design and development of prognostic and health management system for fly-by-wire primary flight control

Electro-Hydraulic Servo Actuators (EHSA) is the principal technology used for primary flight control in new aircrafts and legacy platforms. The development of Prognostic and Health Management technologies and their application to EHSA systems is of great interest in both the aerospace industry and the air fleet operators. This Ph.D. thesis is the results of research activity focused on the development of a PHM system for servovalve of fly-by-wire primary flight EHSA. One of the key features of the research is the implementation of a PHM system without the addition of new sensors, taking advantage of sensing and information already available. This choice allows extending the PHM capability to the EHSAs of legacy platforms and not only to new aircrafts. The enabling technologies borrow from the area of Bayesian estimation theory and specifically particle filtering and the information acquired from EHSA during pre-flight check is processed by appropriate algorithms in order to obtain relevant features, detect the degradation and estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL). The results are evaluated through appropriate metrics in order to assess the performance and effectiveness of the implemented PHM system. The major objective of this contribution is to develop an innovative fault diagnosis and failure prognosis framework for critical aircraft components that integrates effectively mathematically rigorous and validated signal processing, feature extraction, diagnostic and prognostic algorithms with novel uncertainty representation and management tools in a platform that is computationally efficient and ready to be transitioned on-board an aircraft

Fault-detection on an experimental aircraft fuel rig using a Kalman filter-based FDI screen

Reliability is an important issue across industry. This is due to a number of drivers such as the requirement of high safety levels within industries such as aviation, the need for mission success with military equipment, or to avoid monetary losses (due to unplanned outage) within the process and many other industries. The application of fault detection and identification helps to identify the presence of faults to improve mission success or increase up-time of plant equipment. Implementation of such systems can take the form of pattern recognition, statistical and geometric classifiers, soft computing methods or complex model based methods. This study deals with the latter, and focuses on a specific type of model, the Kalman filter. The Kalman filter is an observer which estimates the states of a system, i.e. the physical variables, based upon its current state and knowledge of its inputs. This relies upon the creation of a mathematical model of the system in order to predict the outputs of the system at any given time. Feedback from the plant corrects minor deviation between the system and the Kalman filter model. Comparison between this prediction of outputs and the real output provides the indication of the presence of a fault. On systems with several inputs and outputs banks of these filters can used in order to detect and isolate the various faults that occur in the process and its sensors and actuators. The thesis examines the application of the diagnostic techniques to a laboratory scale aircraft fuel system test-rig. The first stage of the research project required the development of a mathematical model of the fuel rig. Test data acquired by experiment is used to validate the system model against the fuel rig. This nonlinear model is then simplified to create several linear state space models of the fuel rig. These linear models are then used to develop the Kalman filter Fault Detection and Identification (FDI) system by application of appropriate tuning of the Kalman filter gains and careful choice of residual thresholds to determine fault condition boundaries and logic to identify the location of the fault. Additional performance enhancements are also achieved by implementation of statistical evaluation of the residual signal produced and by automatic threshold calculation. The results demonstrate the positive capture of a fault condition and identification of its location in an aircraft fuel system test-rig. The types of fault captured are hard faults such sensor malfunction and actuator failure which provide great deviation of the residual signals and softer faults such as performance degradation and fluid leaks in the tanks and pipes. Faults of a smaller magnitude are captured very well albeit within a larger time range. The performance of the Fault Diagnosis and Identification was further improved by the implementation of statistically evaluating the residual signal and by the development of automatic threshold determination. Identification of the location of the fault is managed by the use of mapping the possible fault permutations and the Kalman filter behaviour, this providing full discrimination between any faults present. Overall the Kalman filter based FDI developed provided positive results in capturing and identifying a system fault on the test-rig

System diagnosis using a bayesian method

Today’s engineering systems have become increasingly more complex. This makes fault diagnosis a more challenging task in industry and therefore a significant amount of research has been undertaken on developing fault diagnostic methodologies. So far there already exist a variety of diagnostic methods, from qualitative to quantitative. However, no methods have considered multi-component degradation when diagnosing faults at the system level. For example, from the point a new aircraft takes off for the first time all of its components start to degrade, and yet in previous studies it is presumed that apart from the faulty component, other components in the system are operating in a healthy state. This thesis makes a contribution through the development of an experimental fuel rig to produce high quality data of multi-component degradation and a probabilistic framework based on the Bayesian method to diagnose faults in a system with considering multi-component degradation. The proposed method is implemented on the fuel rig data which illustrates the applicability of the proposed method and the diagnostic results are compared with the neural network method in order to show the capabilities and imperfections of the proposed method