High-speed detection of emergent market clustering via an unsupervised parallel genetic algorithm

We implement a master-slave parallel genetic algorithm (PGA) with a bespoke log-likelihood fitness function to identify emergent clusters within price evolutions. We use graphics processing units (GPUs) to implement a PGA and visualise the results using disjoint minimal spanning trees (MSTs). We demonstrate that our GPU PGA, implemented on a commercially available general purpose GPU, is able to recover stock clusters in sub-second speed, based on a subset of stocks in the South African market. This represents a pragmatic choice for low-cost, scalable parallel computing and is significantly faster than a prototype serial implementation in an optimised C-based fourth-generation programming language, although the results are not directly comparable due to compiler differences. Combined with fast online intraday correlation matrix estimation from high frequency data for cluster identification, the proposed implementation offers cost-effective, near-real-time risk assessment for financial practitioners.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, More thorough discussion of implementatio

Liquid air as an energy storage:A review

With the increasing demand for energy due to rapid industrialisation and the environmental concerns due to the usage of fossil fuels as the main energy source, there is a shift towards renewable energy. However, the intermittent nature of renewable energy requires energy produced during off-peak hours to be stored. This paper explores the use of liquefied air as an energy storage, the plausibility and the integration of liquefied air into existing framework, the role of liquefied air as an energy storage in addressing the Grand Challenges for Engineering as well as its employability in Malaysia

Spatially optimised sustainable urban development

PhD ThesisTackling urbanisation and climate change requires more sustainable and resilient cities, which in turn will require planners to develop a portfolio of measures to manage climate risks such as flooding, meet energy and greenhouse gas reduction targets, and prioritise development on brownfield sites to preserve greenspace. However, the policies, strategies and measures put in place to meet such objectives can frequently conflict with each other or deliver unintended consequences, hampering long-term sustainability. For example, the densification of cities in order to reduce transport energy use can increase urban heat island effects and surface water flooding from extreme rainfall events. In order to make coherent decisions in the presence of such complex multi-dimensional spatial conflicts, urban planners require sophisticated planning tools to identify and manage potential trade-offs between the spatial strategies necessary to deliver sustainability. To achieve this aim, this research has developed a multi-objective spatial optimisation framework for the spatial planning of new residential development within cities. The implemented framework develops spatial strategies of required new residential development that minimize conflicts between multiple sustainability objectives as a result of planning policy and climate change related hazards. Five key sustainability objectives have been investigated, namely; (i) minimizing risk from heat waves, (ii) minimizing the risk from flood events, (iii) minimizing travel costs in order to reduce transport emissions, (iv) minimizing urban sprawl and (v) preventing development on existing greenspace. A review identified two optimisation algorithms as suitable for this task. Simulated Annealing (SA) is a traditional optimisation algorithm that uses a probabilistic approach to seek out a global optima by iteratively assessing a wide range of spatial configurations against the objectives under consideration. Gradual ‘cooling’, or reducing the probability of jumping to a different region of the objective space, helps the SA to converge on globally optimal spatial patterns. Genetic Algorithms (GA) evolve successive generations of solutions, by both recombining attributes and randomly mutating previous generations of solutions, to search for and converge towards superior spatial strategies. The framework works towards, and outputs, a series of Pareto-optimal spatial plans that outperform all other plans in at least one objective. This approach allows for a range of best trade-off plans for planners to choose from. ii Both SA and GA were evaluated for an initial case study in Middlesbrough, in the North East of England, and were able to identify strategies which significantly improve upon the local authority’s development plan. For example, the GA approach is able to identify a spatial strategy that reduces the travel to work distance between new development and the central business district by 77.5% whilst nullifying the flood risk to the new development. A comparison of the two optimisation approaches for the Middlesbrough case study revealed that the GA is the more effective approach. The GA is more able to escape local optima and on average outperforms the SA by 56% in in the Pareto fronts discovered whilst discovering double the number of multi-objective Pareto-optimal spatial plans. On the basis of the initial Middlesbrough case study the GA approach was applied to the significantly larger, and more computationally complex, problem of optimising spatial development plans for London in the UK – a total area of 1,572km2. The framework identified optimal strategies in less than 400 generations. The analysis showed, for example, strategies that provide the lowest heat risk (compared to the feasible spatial plans found) can be achieved whilst also using 85% brownfield land to locate new development. The framework was further extended to investigate the impact of different development and density regulations. This enabled the identification of optimised strategies, albeit at lower building density, that completely prevent any increase in urban sprawl whilst also improving the heat risk objective by 60% against a business as usual development strategy. Conversely by restricting development to brownfield the ability of the spatial plan to optimise future heat risk is reduced by 55.6% against the business as usual development strategy. The results of both case studies demonstrate the potential of spatial optimisation to provide planners with optimal spatial plans in the presence of conflicting sustainability objectives. The resulting diagnostic information provides an analytical appreciation of the sensitivity between conflicts and therefore the overall robustness of a plan to uncertainty. With the inclusion of further objectives, and qualitative information unsuitable for this type of analysis, spatial optimization can constitute a powerful decision support tool to help planners to identify spatial development strategies that satisfy multiple sustainability objectives and provide an evidence base for better decision making

Analysis and optimisation of a diesel-PV-wind-electric storage system for a standalone power solution

The universal power demand is increasing every day because of population growth, industrial revolution and high standards of living. The renewable energy technologies (RETs) are environmental and cost-effective solutions to satisfy dynamic load profile based on the application of multiple components of a standalone microgrid system that encompasses photovoltaic (PV), diesel generator (DG), electric storage system and wind turbine generator (WTG). This study reveals more insight into various research questions that have not been completely addressed in past investigations. The contributions of the study are expressed: (i) analyse the effects of RETs on the total cost, (ii) test the total benefits, (iii) estimate the market benefit share of the unit that reflects the benefit of one generation unit in proportion to the whole power system, (iv) maximise and minimise the yearly average power generated by (PV and WTG) and DG. This research work presents the application of fmincon optimising tool to accomplish the objectives of the study owing to some significant characteristics. The outcomes of the work show the validity of the model and can assist the utilities to minimise the costs that are identified with the optimal operation of their power systems.http://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/iet-rpgpm2021Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineerin

Bidding strategy for a virtual power plant for trading energy in the wholesale electricity market

Virtual power plants (VPPs) are an effective way to increase renewable integration. In this PhD research, the concept design and the detailed costs and benefits of implementing a realistic VPP in Western Australia (WA), comprising 67 dwellings, are developed. The VPP is designed to integrate and coordinate an 810kW rooftop solar PV farm, 350kW/700kWh vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFB), heat pump hot water systems (HWSs), and smart appliances through demand management mechanisms. This research develops a robust bidding strategy for the VPP to participate in both load following ancillary service (LFAS) and energy market in the wholesale electricity market in WA considering the uncertainties associated with PV generation and electricity market prices. Using this strategy, the payback period can be improved by 3 years (to a payback period of 6 years) and the internal rate of return (IRR) by 7.5% (to an IRR of 18%) by participating in both markets. The daily average error of the proposed robust method is 2.7% over one year when compared with a robust mathematical method. The computational effort is 0.66 sec for 365 runs for the proposed method compared to 947.10 sec for the robust mathematical method. To engage customers in the demand management schemes by the VPP owner, the gamified approach is adopted to make the exercise enjoyable while not compromising their comfort levels. Seven gamified applications are examined using a developed methodology based on Kim’s model and Fogg’s model, and the most suitable one is determined. The simulation results show that gamification can improve the payback period by 1 to 2 months for the VPP owner. Furthermore, an efficient and fog-based monitoring and control platform is proposed for the VPP to be flexible, scalable, secure, and cost-effective to realise the full capabilities and profitability of the VPP

A real-time demand response pricing model for the smart grid

Submitted to the University of Bedfordshire, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)This thesis contributes to a novel model for Real-Time Price Suggestions (RTPS) of the Smart Grid (SG), which is the next generation modern bi-directional grid, particularly with respect to the pricing model. The research employs an experiment-based methodology which includes the use of a simulation technique. The research developed a Demand Response (DR) pricing model. Energy users are keen to reduce their bills, and Energy Providers (EP) is also keen on reducing their industrial costs. The DR model would benefit them both. The model has been tested with the UK-based traditional price value using real-time usage data. Energy users significantly reduced their bill and EP reduced their industrial cost due to load shifting. The Price Control Unit (PCU) and Price Suggestion Unit (PSU) utilise a set of embedded algorithms to vary price based upon demand. This model makes suggestions based on an energy threshold and makes use of Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation Methods to produce prices. The results show that bill and peak load reductions benefit both the energy provider and users. The tests on a daily basis and monthly basis both benefit energy users and energy provider. The model has been validated by building a hardware prototype. This model also addresses users’ preferences; if users are non-responsive, they can still reduce their bills. The model contributes significantly to the existing models, and the novel contribution is the PSU which uniquely benefits energy users and provider. Therefore, there is a number of fundamental aspect of contributions to the model RTPS constitutes the final thesis of the PhD. The Real-Time Pricing is a better pricing system, algorithm developed on a daily basis and monthly basis and finally building a hardware prototype

Enabling long journeys in electric vehicles:design and demonstration of an infrastructure location model

This research develops a methodology and model formulation which suggests locations for rapid chargers to help assist infrastructure development and enable greater battery electric vehicle (BEV) usage. The model considers the likely travel patterns of BEVs and their subsequent charging demands across a large road network, where no prior candidate site information is required. Using a GIS-based methodology, polygons are constructed which represent the charging demand zones for particular routes across a real-world road network. The use of polygons allows the maximum number of charging combinations to be considered whilst limiting the input intensity needed for the model. Further polygons are added to represent deviation possibilities, meaning that placement of charge points away from the shortest path is possible, given a penalty function. A validation of the model is carried out by assessing the expected demand at current rapid charging locations and comparing to recorded empirical usage data. Results suggest that the developed model provides a good approximation to real world observations, and that for the provision of charging, location matters. The model is also implemented where no prior candidate site information is required. As such, locations are chosen based on the weighted overlay between several different routes where BEV journeys may be expected. In doing so many locations, or types of locations, could be compared against one another and then analysed in relation to siting practicalities, such as cost, land permission and infrastructure availability. Results show that efficient facility location, given numerous siting possibilities across a large road network can be achieved. Slight improvements to the standard greedy adding technique are made by adding combination weightings which aim to reward important long distance routes that require more than one charge to complete

A review of the use of artificial intelligence methods in infrastructure systems

The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution offers significant opportunities to capitalise on the growth of digitalisation and has the potential to enable the ‘system of systems’ approach required in increasingly complex infrastructure systems. This paper reviews the extent to which research in economic infrastructure sectors has engaged with fields of AI, to investigate the specific AI methods chosen and the purposes to which they have been applied both within and across sectors. Machine learning is found to dominate the research in this field, with methods such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and random forests among the most popular. The automated reasoning technique of fuzzy logic has also seen widespread use, due to its ability to incorporate uncertainties in input variables. Across the infrastructure sectors of energy, water and wastewater, transport, and telecommunications, the main purposes to which AI has been applied are network provision, forecasting, routing, maintenance and security, and network quality management. The data-driven nature of AI offers significant flexibility, and work has been conducted across a range of network sizes and at different temporal and geographic scales. However, there remains a lack of integration of planning and policy concerns, such as stakeholder engagement and quantitative feasibility assessment, and the majority of research focuses on a specific type of infrastructure, with an absence of work beyond individual economic sectors. To enable solutions to be implemented into real-world infrastructure systems, research will need to move away from a siloed perspective and adopt a more interdisciplinary perspective that considers the increasing interconnectedness of these systems