56,207 research outputs found
Fuzzy investment decision support for brownfield redevelopment
Tato disertaÄnĂ prĂĄce se zamÄĹuje na problematiku investovĂĄnĂ a podporu rozhodovĂĄnĂ pomocĂ modernĂch metod. ZejmĂŠna pokud jde o analĂ˝zu, hodnocenĂ a vĂ˝bÄr tzv. brownfieldĹŻ pro jejich redevelopment (revitalizaci). CĂlem tĂŠto prĂĄce je navrhnout univerzĂĄlnĂ metodu, kterĂĄ usnadnĂ rozhodovacĂ proces. Proces rozhodovĂĄnĂ je v praxi komplikovĂĄn tĂŠĹž velkĂ˝m poÄet relevantnĂch parametrĹŻ ovlivĹujĂcĂch koneÄnĂŠ rozhodnutĂ. NavrĹženĂĄ metoda je zaloĹžena na vyuĹžitĂ fuzzy logiky, modelovĂĄnĂ, statistickĂŠ analĂ˝zy, shlukovĂŠ analĂ˝zy, teorie grafĹŻ a na sofistikovanĂ˝ch metodĂĄch sbÄru a zpracovĂĄnĂ informacĂ. NovĂĄ metoda umoĹžĹuje zefektivnit proces analĂ˝zy a porovnĂĄvĂĄnĂ alternativnĂch investic a pĹesnÄji zpracovat velkĂ˝ objem informacĂ. Ve vĂ˝sledku tak bude zmenĹĄen poÄet prvkĹŻ mnoĹžiny nejvhodnÄjĹĄĂch alternativnĂch investic na zĂĄkladÄ hierarchie parametrĹŻ stanovenĂ˝ch investorem.This dissertation focuses on decision making, investing and brownfield redevelopment. Especially on the analysis, evaluation and selection of previously used real estates suitable for commercial use. The objective of this dissertation is to design a method that facilitates the decision making process with many possible alternatives and large number of relevant parameters influencing the decision. The proposed method is based on the use of fuzzy logic, modeling, statistic analysis, cluster analysis, graph theory and sophisticated methods of information collection and processing. New method allows decision makers to process much larger amount of information and evaluate possible investment alternatives efficiently.
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Applying a Fuzzy-Morphological approach to complexity within management decision-making
A framework for the selection of the right nuclear power plant
Civil nuclear reactors are used for the production of electrical energy. In the nuclear industry vendors propose several nuclear reactor designs with a size from 35â45âMWe up to 1600â1700âMWe. The choice of the right design is a multidimensional problem since a utility has to include not only financial factors as levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and internal rate of return (IRR), but also the so called âexternal factorsâ like the required spinning reserve, the impact on local industry and the social acceptability. Therefore it is necessary to balance advantages and disadvantages of each design during the entire life cycle of the plant, usually 40â60 years. In the scientific literature there are several techniques for solving this multidimensional problem. Unfortunately it does not seem possible to apply these methodologies as they are, since the problem is too complex and it is difficult to provide consistent and trustworthy expert judgments. This paper fills the gap, proposing a two-step framework to choosing the best nuclear reactor at the pre-feasibility study phase. The paper shows in detail how to use the methodology, comparing the choice of a small-medium reactor (SMR) with a large reactor (LR), characterised, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (2006), by an electrical output respectively lower and higher than 700âMWe
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Advancing the state of the art in the modelling and simulation of information systems evaluation
It is widely accepted that Information Systems Evaluation (ISE) is a powerful and useful technique
that can be used to assess IT/IS investments in an a-priori or a-posteriori sense. Traditional
approaches to ISE have tended to centre upon financial and management accounting frameworks,
seeking to reconcile tangible and intangible costs, benefits, risks and value factors. Such techniques,
however, do not provide the IS researcher or practitioner with further insight or appreciation of any
inherent and implicit inter-relationships, in the investment justification process. Thus, this paper
outlines and discusses via a taxonomy and resulting classification, alternative and complementary
approaches that can be applied to ISE from the fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Operational
Research (OR) and Management Science (MS). The paper subsequently concludes that such
approaches can be potentially used by researchers and practitioners in the field, as a basis for
carrying out further research in the field of applied ISE
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Applying concepts of fuzzy cognitive mapping to model IT/IS investment evaluation factors
The justification process is a major concern for many organisations that are considering the adoption of Information Technology (IT) and Information Systems (IS), and is a barrier to its implementation. As a result, the competitive advantage of many companies is being put at risk because of management's inability to evaluate the holistic implication of adopting new technology, both in terms of on the benefit and cost portfolios. This paper identifies a number of well-known project appraisal techniques used in IT/IS investment justification. Furthermore, the concept of multivalent, or fuzzy logic, is used to demonstrate how inter-relationships can be modeled between key dimensions identified in the proposed conceptual evaluation model. This is highlighted using fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) as a technique to model each IT/IS evaluation factor (integrating strategic, tactical, operational and investment considerations). The use of an FCM is then shown to be as a complementary tool which can serve to highlight interdependencies between contributory justification factors
A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry
The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to
quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology
alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an
application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and
economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a
complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based
prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy
calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on
comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact
numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as âvery highâ, âhighâ,
âmediumâ, âlowâ and âvery lowâ, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it
becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather
than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of
each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index.
The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and
preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic
evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals
quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled
as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent âthe most likely possible valueâ,
âthe most pessimistic valueâ and âthe most optimistic valueâ. By using this
methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively
represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision-
making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype
model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured
it was properly configured to meet the
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Exploring fuzzy cognitive mapping for IS evaluation: A research note
Existing IS Evaluation (ISE) techniques tend to focus on modeling individuals, teams, organization, or systems, in relation to process and environmental boundaries. Whilst such approaches are noteworthy and of merit, they do not necessarily provide insights into those causal interdependencies that are inherent within decision-making task. As has been noted by the extant literature in the field, the ISE task is dependent upon many factors â the resulting outputs of which may be tangible or intangible. The implicit level of uncertainty associated with modeling such decision-making tasks and behaviors, are therefore difficult to comprehend and impart via wholly Quantitative and / or Qualitative analyses. The authors therefore present and propose supporting and on-going research into the application of Fuzzy Logic, in the guise of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) simulations, as a means to model tangible/intangible aspects of the ISE decision-making task. Such a Fuzzy Information Systems Evaluation (F-ISE) is shown via the application of the FCM technique, in terms of three models of investment appraisal that are aligned to an ISE task within a UK manufacturing organization. In doing so, it is anticipated that such a technique may be a useful addition to the plethora of ISE techniques available to both researcher and practitioner alike
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Knowledge dependencies in fuzzy information systems evaluation
Experience and research within the field of Information Systems Evaluation (ISE), has traditionally centered on providing tools and techniques for investment justification and appraisal, based upon explicit knowledge which encodes financial and other direct situational factors (such as accounting, costing and risk metrics). However, such approaches tend not to include additional causal interdependencies that are based upon tacit knowledge and are inherent within such a decision-making task. The authors show the results of applying a cognitive mapping approach, in the guise of a Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) simulation, i.e. Fuzzy Information Systems Evaluation (F-ISE), in order to highlight the usefulness of applying such a technique. The authors highlight those contingent and necessary knowledge dependencies, in an exploratory sense, which relate to the investment appraisal decision-making task, in terms of the interplay between tacit and explicit knowledge, in this regard
A New Fuzzy MCDM Framework to Evaluate E-Government Security Strategy
Ensuring security of e-government applications and infrastructures is crucial
to maintain trust among stakeholders to store, process and exchange information
over the e-government systems. Due to dynamic and continuous threats on
e-government information security, policy makers need to perform evaluation on
existing information security strategy as to deliver trusted e-government
services. This paper presents an information security evaluation framework
based on new fuzzy multi criteria decision making (MCDM) to help policy makers
conduct comprehensive assessment of e-government security strategy.Comment: IEEE 4th International Conference on Application of Information and
Communication Technologies AICT201
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