Development of a system architecture for the prediction of student success using machine learning techniques

“ The goals of higher education have evolved through time based on the impact that technology development and industry have on productivity. Nowadays, jobs demand increased technical skills, and the supply of prepared personnel to assume those jobs is insufficient. The system of higher education needs to evaluate their practices to realize the potential of cultivating an educated and technically skilled workforce. Currently, completion rates at universities are too low to accomplish the aim of closing the workforce gap. Recent reports indicate that 40 percent of freshman at four-year public colleges will not graduate, and rates of completion are even lower for community colleges. Some efforts have been made to adjust admission requirements and develop systems of support for different segments of students; however, completion rates are still considered low. Therefore, new strategies need to consider student success as part of the institutional culture based on the information technology support. Also, it is key that the models that evaluate student success can be scalable to other higher education institutions. In recent years machine learning techniques have proven to be effective for such purpose. Then, the primary objective of this research is to develop an integrated system that allows for the application of machine learning for student success prediction. The proposed system was evaluated to determine the accuracy of student success predictions using several machine learning techniques such as decision trees, neural networks, support vector machines, and random forest. The research outcomes offer an important understanding about how to develop a more efficient and responsive system to support students to complete their educational goals”--Abstract, page iv

Student dropout risk detection at University of Évora

Currently, student dropout is a global problem in higher education affecting the results of education systems. In addition to providing state-of-the-art education, any institution needs to maintain its student flow rate, which means that predicting dropout is critical to measuring the success of an education system. This work focuses on identifying the risk of dropout at the University of Évora based on students’ academic performance. We propose a set of aca- demic information as predictive attributes and present machine learning models that have a precision of 96.8% and f1-measure of 94.8% as perfor- mance in identifying students at risk of dropping out. In this regard, 13 years of academic data were collected from four different academic programs (the academic years 2006/2007 to 2018/2019 and Man- agement, Biology, Informatics Engineering and Nursing programs). After collecting the students’ academic records, anonymizing the information and pre-processing the data, an engineering and attribute selection process was conducted, building the data sets. Various machine learning algorithms were applied and their performance was compared; models were built with Deci- sion Trees (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forest (RF), with the latter algorithm having obtained the best performance in terms of recall; Sumário: Detecção de Risco de Abandono de Alunos na Universidade de Évora Atualmente, o abandono escolar é um problema global no ensino superior que afeta os resultados dos sistemas educativos. Além de fornecer educação de ponta, qualquer instituição precisa manter a taxa de fluxo de alunos, o que significa que a previsão do abandono escolar é essencial para medir o sucesso de um sistema de ensino. Este trabalho centra-se na identificação do risco de abandono escolar na Uni- versidade de Évora com base no desempenho escolar dos alunos. Propomos um conjunto de informação académica como atributos preditivos e apresen- tamos modelos de aprendizagem automática que apresentam uma precisão de 96.8% e f1-medir de 94.8% como desempenho na identificação de alunos em risco de desistência. Nesse sentido, foram recolhidos 13 anos de dados académicos de quatro cursos diferentes (anos letivos de 2006/2007 a 2018/2019 e cursos de Gestão, Bi- ologia, Engenharia Informática e Enfermagem). Após a recolha do percurso académico dos alunos, a anonimização da informação e o pré-processamento dos dados, foi conduzido um processo de engenharia e seleção de atributos, construindo assim os conjuntos de dados. Foram aplicados vários algoritmos de aprendizagem automática e o seu desempenho foi comparado; foram con struídos modelo com Árvores de Decisão (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB), Máquinas de Vetores de Suporte (SVM) e Random Forest (RF), tendo este último al- goritmo obtido o melhor desempenho no que respeita à cobertura

Data mining tool for academic data exploitation: literature review and first architecture proposal

Using data for making decisions is not new; companies use complex computations on customer data for business intelligence or analytics. Business intelligence techniques can discern historical patterns and trends from data and can create models that predict future trends and patterns. Analytics, broadly defined, comprises applied techniques from computer science, mathematics, and statistics for extracting usable information from very large datasets. Data itself is not new. Data has always been generated and used to inform decision-making. However, most of this was structured and organised, through regular data collections, surveys, etc. What is new, with the invention and dominance of the Internet and the expansion of digital systems across all sectors, is the amount of unstructured data we are generating. This is what we call the digital footprint: the traces that individuals leave behind as they interact with their increasingly digital world. Data analytics is the process where data is collected and analysed in order to identify patterns, make predictions, and inform business decisions. Our capacity to perform increasingly sophisticated analytics is changing the way we make predictions and decisions, with huge potential to improve competitive intelligence. These examples suggest that the actions from data mining and analytics are always automatic, but that is less often the case. Educational Data Mining (EDM) and Learning Analytics (LA) have the potential to make visible data that have heretofore gone unseen, unnoticed, and therefore unactionable. To help further the fields and gain value from their practical applications, the recommendations are that educators and administrators: • Develop a culture of using data for making instructional decisions; • Involve IT departments in planning for data collection and use; • Be smart data consumers who ask critical questions about commercial offerings and create demand for the most useful features and uses; • Start with focused areas where data will help, show success, and then expand to new areas; • Communicate with students and parents about where data come from and how the data are used; • Help align state policies with technical requirements for online learning systems. This report documents the first steps conducted within the SPEET1 ERASMUS+ project. It describes the conceptualization of a practical tool for the application of EDM/LA techniques to currently available academic data. The document is also intended to contextualise the use of Big Data within the academic sector, with special emphasis on the role that student profiles and student clustering do have in support tutoring actions. The report describes the promise of educational data mining (seeking patterns in data across many student actions), learning analytics (applying predictive models that provide actionable information), and visual data analytics (interactive displays of analyzed data) and how they might serve the future of personalized learning and the development and continuous improvement of adaptive systems. How might they operate in an adaptive learning system? What inputs and outputs are to be expected? In the next sections, these questions are addressed by giving a system-level view of how data mining and analytics could improve teaching and learning by creating feedback loops. Finally, the proposal of the key elements that conform a software application that is intended to give support to this academic data analysis is presented. Three different key elements are presented: data, algorithms and application architecture. From one side we should have a minimum data available. The corresponding relational data base structure is presented. This basic data can always be complemented with other available data that may help to decide or/and to explain decisions. Classification algorithms are reviewed and is presented how they can be used for the generation of the student clustering problem. A convenient software architecture will act as an umbrella that connects the previous two parts. The document is intended to be useful for a first understanding of academic data analysis. What we can get and what we do need to do. This is the first of a series of reports that taken all together will provide a complete and consistent view towards the inclusion of data mining as a helping hand in the tutoring action.European UnionProgramme: Erasmus+ Project Reference: 2016-1-ES01-KA203-025452info:eu-repo/semantics/draf

The Investigation of Student Dropout Prediction Model in Thai Higher Education Using Educational Data Mining: A Case Study of Faculty of Science, Prince of Songkla Uni-versity

The student’s retention rate is one of the challenging issues that representing the quality of the university. A high dropout rate of students affects not only the reputation of the university but also the students’ career in the future. Therefore, there is a need of student dropout analysis in order to improve the academic plan and management to reduce students drop out from the university as well as to  enhance the quality of the higher education system. Data mining technique provides powerful methods for analysis and the prediction the dropout. This paper proposes a model for predicting students’ dropout using the dataset from the representative of the largest public university in the Southen part of Thailand. In this study, data from Faculty of Science, Prince of Songkla University was collected from academic year of 2013 to 2017. The experiment result shows that JRip rule induction is the best technique to generate a prediction model receiving the highest accuracy value of 77.30%. The results highlight the potential prediction model that can be used to detect the early state of dropping out of the student which the university can provide supporting program to improve the student retention rat

A Comprehensive Survey on Deep Learning Techniques in Educational Data Mining

Educational Data Mining (EDM) has emerged as a vital field of research, which harnesses the power of computational techniques to analyze educational data. With the increasing complexity and diversity of educational data, Deep Learning techniques have shown significant advantages in addressing the challenges associated with analyzing and modeling this data. This survey aims to systematically review the state-of-the-art in EDM with Deep Learning. We begin by providing a brief introduction to EDM and Deep Learning, highlighting their relevance in the context of modern education. Next, we present a detailed review of Deep Learning techniques applied in four typical educational scenarios, including knowledge tracing, undesirable student detecting, performance prediction, and personalized recommendation. Furthermore, a comprehensive overview of public datasets and processing tools for EDM is provided. Finally, we point out emerging trends and future directions in this research area.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

Supervised Learning Algorithms in Educational Data Mining: A Systematic Review

The academic institutions always looking for tools that improve their performance and enhance individuals outcomes. Due to the huge ability of data mining to explore hidden patterns and trends in the data, many researchers paid attention to Educational Data Mining (EDM) in the last decade. This field explores different types of data using different algorithms to extract knowledge that supports decision-making and academic sector development. The researchers in the field of EDM have proposed and adopted different algorithms in various directions. In this review, we have explored the published papers between 2010-2020 in the libraries (IEEE, ACM, Science Direct, and Springer) in the field of EDM are to answer review questions. We aimed to find the most used algorithm by researchers in the field of supervised machine learning in the period of 2010-2020. Additionally, we explored the most direction in the EDM and the interest of the researchers. During our research and analysis, many limitations have been examined and in addition to answering the review questions, some future works have been presented