Brief survey on computational solutions for Bayesian inference

In this paper, we present a brief review of research work attempting to tackle the issue of tractability in Bayesian inference, including an analysis of the applicability and trade-offs of each proposed solution. In recent years, the Bayesian approach has become increasingly popular, endowing autonomous systems with the ability to deal with uncertainty and incompleteness. However, these systems are also expected to be efficient, while Bayesian inference in general is known to be an NP-hard problem, making it paramount to develop approaches dealing with this complexity in order to allow the implementation of usable Bayesian solutions. Novel computational paradigms and also major developments in massively parallel computation technologies, such as multi-core processors, GPUs and FPGAs, provide us with an inkling of the roadmap in Bayesian computation for upcoming years

Answering queries in hybrid Bayesian networks using importance sampling

In this paper we propose an algorithm for answering queries in hybrid Bayesian networks where the underlying probability distribution is of class MTE (mixture of truncated exponentials). The algorithm is based on importance sampling simulation. We show how, like existing importance sampling algorithms for discrete networks, it is able to provide answers to multiple queries simultaneously using a single sample. The behaviour of the new algorithm is experimentally tested and compared with previous methods existing in the literature

Learning a Meta-Controller for Dynamic Grasping

Grasping moving objects is a challenging task that combines multiple submodules such as object pose predictor, arm motion planner, etc. Each submodule operates under its own set of meta-parameters. For example, how far the pose predictor should look into the future (i.e., look-ahead time) and the maximum amount of time the motion planner can spend planning a motion (i.e., time budget). Many previous works assign fixed values to these parameters either heuristically or through grid search; however, at different moments within a single episode of dynamic grasping, the optimal values should vary depending on the current scene. In this work, we learn a meta-controller through reinforcement learning to control the look-ahead time and time budget dynamically. Our extensive experiments show that the meta-controller improves the grasping success rate (up to 12% in the most cluttered environment) and reduces grasping time, compared to the strongest baseline. Our meta-controller learns to reason about the reachable workspace and maintain the predicted pose within the reachable region. In addition, it assigns a small but sufficient time budget for the motion planner. Our method can handle different target objects, trajectories, and obstacles. Despite being trained only with 3-6 randomly generated cuboidal obstacles, our meta-controller generalizes well to 7-9 obstacles and more realistic out-of-domain household setups with unseen obstacle shapes. Video is available at https://youtu.be/CwHq77wFQqI.Comment: 10 page

An extended depth-first search algorithm for optimal triangulation of Bayesian networks

The junction tree algorithm is currently the most popular algorithm for exact inference on Bayesian networks. To improve the time complexity of the junction tree algorithm, we need to find a triangulation with the optimal total table size. For this purpose, Ottosen and Vomlel have proposed a depth-first search (DFS) algorithm. They also introduced several techniques to improve the DFS algorithm, including dynamic clique maintenance and coalescing map pruning. Nevertheless, the efficiency and scalability of that algorithm leave much room for improvement. First, the dynamic clique maintenance allows to recompute some cliques. Second, in the worst case, the DFS algorithm explores the search space of all elimination orders, which has size n!, where n is the number of variables in the Bayesian network. To mitigate these problems, we propose an extended depth-first search (EDFS) algorithm. The new EDFS algorithm introduces the following two techniques as improvements to the DFS algorithm: (1) a new dynamic clique maintenance algorithm that computes only those cliques that contain a new edge, and (2) a new pruning rule, called pivot clique pruning. The new dynamic clique maintenance algorithm explores a smaller search space and runs faster than the Ottosen and Vomlel approach. This improvement can decrease the overhead cost of the DFS algorithm, and the pivot clique pruning reduces the size of the search space by a factor of O(n2). Our empirical results show that our proposed algorithm finds an optimal triangulation markedly faster than the state-of-the-art algorithm does

ベイジアンネットワークにおける確率推論の高速化のための最適三角化アルゴリズムの提案

　Bayesian networks are widely used probabilistic graphical models that provide a compact representation of joint probability distributions over a set of variables. A common inference task in Bayesian networks is to compute the posterior marginal distributions for the unobserved variables given some evidence variables that we have already observed. However, the inference problem is known to be NP-hard and this complexity of inference limits the usage of Bayesian networks. Many attempts to improve the inference algorithm have been made in the past two decades. Currently, the junction tree algorithm is among the most prominent exact inference algorithms. To perform efficient inference on a Bayesian network using the junction tree algorithm, it is necessary to find a triangulation of the moral graph of the Bayesian network such that the total table size is small. In this context, the total table size is used to measure the computational complexity of the junction tree inference algorithm. This thesis focuses on exact algorithms for finding a triangulation that minimizes the total table size for a given Bayesian network.　For optimal triangulation, Ottosen and Vomlel have proposed a depth-first search (DFS) algorithm. They also introduced several techniques to improve the DFS algorithm, including dynamic clique maintenance and coalescing map pruning. Nevertheless, the efficiency and scalability of their algorithm leave much room for improvement. First, the dynamic clique maintenance allows the recomputation of some cliques. Second, for a Bayesian network with n variables, the DFS algorithm runs in O*(n!) time because it explores a search space of all elimination orders. To mitigate these problems, an extended depth-first search (EDFS) algorithm is proposed in this thesis. The new EDFS algorithm introduces two techniques: (1) a new dynamic clique maintenance algorithm that computes only those cliques that contain a new edge, and (2) a new pruning rule, called pivot clique pruning. The new dynamic clique maintenance algorithm explores a smaller search space and runs faster than the Ottosen and Vomlel approach. This improvement can decrease the overhead cost of the DFS algorithm, and the pivot clique pruning reduces the size of the search space by a factor of O(n2). Our empirical results show that our proposed algorithm finds an optimal triangulation markedly faster than the state-of-the-art algorithm does.電気通信大学201

Breaking Computational Barriers to Perform Time Series Pattern Mining at Scale and at the Edge

Uncovering repeated behavior in time series is an important problem in many domains such as medicine, geophysics, meteorology, and many more. With the continuing surge of smart/embedded devices generating time series data, there is an ever growing need to perform analysis on datasets of increasing size. Additionally, there is an increasing need for analysis at low power edge devices due to latency problems inherent to the speed of light and the sheer amount of data being recorded. The matrix profile has proven to be a tool highly suitable for pattern mining in time series; however, a naive approach to computing the matrix profile makes it impossible to use effectively in both the cloud and at the edge. This dissertation shows how, through the use of GPUs and machine learning, the matrix profile is computed more feasibly, both at cloud-scale and at sensor-scale. In addition, it illustrates why both of these types of computation are important and what new insights they can provide to practitioners working with time series data

Metareasoning for Planning and Execution in Autonomous Systems

Metareasoning is the process by which an autonomous system optimizes, specifically monitors and controls, its own planning and execution processes in order to operate more effectively in its environment. As autonomous systems rapidly grow in sophistication and autonomy, the need for metareasoning has become critical for efficient and reliable operation in noisy, stochastic, unstructured domains for long periods of time. This is due to the uncertainty over the limitations of their reasoning capabilities and the range of their potential circumstances. However, despite considerable progress in metareasoning as a whole over the last thirty years, work on metareasoning for planning relies on several assumptions that diminish its accuracy and practical utility in autonomous systems that operate in the real world while work on metareasoning for execution has not seen much attention yet. This dissertation therefore proposes more effective metareasoning for planning while expanding the scope of metareasoning to execution to improve the efficiency of planning and the reliability of execution in autonomous systems. In particular, we offer a two-pronged framework that introduces metareasoning for efficient planning and reliable execution in autonomous systems. We begin by proposing two forms of metareasoning for efficient planning: (1) a method that determines when to interrupt an anytime algorithm and act on the current solution by using online performance prediction and (2) a method that tunes the hyperparameters of the anytime algorithm at runtime by using deep reinforcement learning. We then propose two forms of metareasoning for reliable execution: (3) a method that recovers from exceptions that can be encountered during operation by using belief space planning and (4) a method that maintains and restores safety during operation by using probabilistic planning