Towards cross-lingual alerting for bursty epidemic events

Background: Online news reports are increasingly becoming a source for event based early warning systems that detect natural disasters. Harnessing the massive volume of information available from multilingual newswire presents as many challenges as opportunities due to the patterns of reporting complex spatiotemporal events. Results: In this article we study the problem of utilising correlated event reports across languages. We track the evolution of 16 disease outbreaks using 5 temporal aberration detection algorithms on text-mined events classified according to disease and outbreak country. Using ProMED reports as a silver standard, comparative analysis of news data for 13 languages over a 129 day trial period showed improved sensitivity, F1 and timeliness across most models using cross-lingual events. We report a detailed case study analysis for Cholera in Angola 2010 which highlights the challenges faced in correlating news events with the silver standard. Conclusions: The results show that automated health surveillance using multilingual text mining has the potential to turn low value news into high value alerts if informed choices are used to govern the selection of models and data sources. An implementation of the C2 alerting algorithm using multilingual news is available at the BioCaster portal http://born.nii.ac.jp/?page=globalroundup

Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit

The Early Bird Catches The Term: Combining Twitter and News Data For Event Detection and Situational Awareness

Twitter updates now represent an enormous stream of information originating from a wide variety of formal and informal sources, much of which is relevant to real-world events. In this paper we adapt existing bio-surveillance algorithms to detect localised spikes in Twitter activity corresponding to real events with a high level of confidence. We then develop a methodology to automatically summarise these events, both by providing the tweets which fully describe the event and by linking to highly relevant news articles. We apply our methods to outbreaks of illness and events strongly affecting sentiment. In both case studies we are able to detect events verifiable by third party sources and produce high quality summaries

Integration and Visualization Public Health Dashboard: The medi plus board Pilot Project

Traditional public health surveillance systems would benefit from integration with knowledge created by new situation-aware realtime signals from social media, online searches, mobile/sensor networks and citizens' participatory surveillance systems. However, the challenge of threat validation, cross-verification and information integration for risk assessment has so far been largely untackled. In this paper, we propose a new system, medi+board, monitoring epidemic intelligence sources and traditional case-based surveillance to better automate early warning, cross-validation of signals for outbreak detection and visualization of results on an interactive dashboard. This enables public health professionals to see all essential information at a glance. Modular and configurable to any 'event' defined by public health experts, medi+board scans multiple data sources, detects changing patterns and uses a configurable analysis module for signal detection to identify a threat. These can be validated by an analysis module and correlated with other sources to assess the reliability of the event classified as the reliability coefficient which is a real number between zero and one. Events are reported and visualized on the medi+board dashboard which integrates all information sources and can be navigated by a timescale widget. Simulation with three datasets from the swine flu 2009 pandemic (HPA surveillance, Google news, Twitter) demonstrates the potential of medi+board to automate data processing and visualization to assist public health experts in decision making on control and response measures

Public Health

Twitter, crowdsourcing, and other medical technology inventions producing real-time geolocated streams of personalized data have changed the way we think about health (Kostkova 2015). However, Twitter’s strength is its two-way communication nature – both as a health information source but also as a central hub for the creation and dissemination of media health coverage. Health authorities, insurance companies, marketing agencies, and individuals can leverage the availability of large datasets from Twitter to improve early warning services and preparedness, aid disease prevalence mapping, and provide personal targeted health advice, as well as in"uence public sentiment about major health interventions. However, despite the growing potential, there are still many challenges to address to develop robust and reliable systems integrating Twitter streams to real-world provision of healthcare

Living analytics methods for the social web

[no abstract