49,927 research outputs found
Probabilistic Numerics and Uncertainty in Computations
We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for
numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and
solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their
calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by
numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much
contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science
and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with
large and complex data has led to a renewed focus on the management of
numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical
methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show
that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be
adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical
performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic
numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical
imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally,
we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework
for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of
numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimisers and differential equation
solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in
computations.Comment: Author Generated Postprint. 17 pages, 4 Figures, 1 Tabl
Representation Learning: A Review and New Perspectives
The success of machine learning algorithms generally depends on data
representation, and we hypothesize that this is because different
representations can entangle and hide more or less the different explanatory
factors of variation behind the data. Although specific domain knowledge can be
used to help design representations, learning with generic priors can also be
used, and the quest for AI is motivating the design of more powerful
representation-learning algorithms implementing such priors. This paper reviews
recent work in the area of unsupervised feature learning and deep learning,
covering advances in probabilistic models, auto-encoders, manifold learning,
and deep networks. This motivates longer-term unanswered questions about the
appropriate objectives for learning good representations, for computing
representations (i.e., inference), and the geometrical connections between
representation learning, density estimation and manifold learning
Multiobjective Tactical Planning under Uncertainty for Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management
We investigate a method to deal with congestion of sectors and delays in the
tactical phase of air traffic flow and capacity management. It relies on
temporal objectives given for every point of the flight plans and shared among
the controllers in order to create a collaborative environment. This would
enhance the transition from the network view of the flow management to the
local view of air traffic control. Uncertainty is modeled at the trajectory
level with temporal information on the boundary points of the crossed sectors
and then, we infer the probabilistic occupancy count. Therefore, we can model
the accuracy of the trajectory prediction in the optimization process in order
to fix some safety margins. On the one hand, more accurate is our prediction;
more efficient will be the proposed solutions, because of the tighter safety
margins. On the other hand, when uncertainty is not negligible, the proposed
solutions will be more robust to disruptions. Furthermore, a multiobjective
algorithm is used to find the tradeoff between the delays and congestion, which
are antagonist in airspace with high traffic density. The flow management
position can choose manually, or automatically with a preference-based
algorithm, the adequate solution. This method is tested against two instances,
one with 10 flights and 5 sectors and one with 300 flights and 16 sectors.Comment: IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (2013). arXiv admin note:
substantial text overlap with arXiv:1309.391
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