Uncertainty quantification and its properties for hidden Markov models with application to condition based maintenance

Condition-based maintenance (CBM) can be viewed as a transformation of data gathered from a piece of equipment into information about its condition, and further into decisions on what to do with the equipment. Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a useful framework to probabilistically model the condition of complex engineering systems with partial observability of the underlying states. Condition monitoring and prediction of such type of system requires accurate knowledge of HMM that describes the degradation of such a system with data collected from the sensors mounted on it, as well as understanding of the uncertainty of the HMMs identified from the available data. To that end, this thesis proposes a novel HMM estimation scheme based on the principles of Bayes theorem. The newly proposed Bayesian estimation approach for estimating HMM parameters naturally yields information about model parametric uncertainties via posterior distributions of HMM parameters emanating from the estimation process. In addition, a novel condition monitoring scheme based on uncertain HMMs of the degradation process is proposed and demonstrated on a large dataset obtained from a semiconductor manufacturing facility. Portion of the data was used to build operating mode specific HMMs of machine degradation via the newly proposed Bayesian estimation process, while the remainder of the data was used for monitoring of machine condition using the uncertain degradation HMMs yielded by Bayesian estimation. Comparison with a traditional signature-based statistical monitoring method showed that the newly proposed approach effectively utilizes the fact that its parameters are uncertain themselves, leading to orders of magnitude fewer false alarms. This methodology is further extended to address the practical issue that maintenance interventions are usually imperfect. We propose both a novel non-ergodic and non-homogeneous HMM that assumes imperfect maintenances and a novel process monitoring method capable of monitoring the hidden states considering model uncertainty. Significant improvement in both the log-likelihood of estimated HMM parameters and monitoring performance were observed, compared to those obtained using degradation HMMs that always assumed perfect maintenance. Finally, behavior of the posterior distribution of parameters of unidirectional non- ergodic HMMs modeling in this thesis for degradation was theoretically analyzed in terms of their evolution as more data become available in the estimation process. The convergence problem is formulated as a Bernstein-von Mises theorem (BvMT), and under certain regularity conditions, the sequence of posterior distributions is proven to converge to a Gaussian distribution with variance matrix being the inverse of the Fisher information matrix. An example of a unidirectional HMM is presented for which the regularity conditions are verified, and illustrations of expected theoretical results are given using simulation. The understanding of such convergence of posterior distributions enables one to determine when Bayesian estimation of degradation HMMs is justified and converges toward true model parameters, as well as how much data one then needs to achieve desired accuracy of the resulting model. Understanding of these issues is of utmost important if HMMs are to be used for degradation modeling and monitoring.Operations Research and Industrial Engineerin

A TOPSIS-Assisted Feature Selection Scheme and SOM-Based Anomaly Detection for Milling Tools Under Different Operating Conditions

Anomaly detection modeled as a one-class classification is an essential task for tool condition monitoring (TCM) when only the normal data are available. To confront with the real-world settings, it is crucial to take the different operating conditions, e.g., rotation speed, into account when approaching TCM solutions. This work mainly addresses issues related to multi-operating-condition TCM models, namely the varying discriminability of sensory features with different operating conditions; the overlap between normal and anomalous data; and the complex structure of input data. A feature selection scheme is proposed in which the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is presented as a tool to aid the multi-objective selection of sensory features. In addition, four anomaly detection approaches based on Self-Organizing Map (SOM) are studied. To examine the stability of the four approaches, they are applied on different single-operating-condition models. Further, to examine their robustness when dealing with complex data structures, they are applied on multi-operating-condition models. The experimental results using the NASA Milling Data Set showed that all the studied anomaly detection approaches achieved a higher assessment accuracy with our feature selection scheme as compared to the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Laplacian Score (LS), and extended LS in which we added a final step to the original LS method in order to eliminate redundant features

A survey of machine learning techniques applied to self organizing cellular networks

In this paper, a survey of the literature of the past fifteen years involving Machine Learning (ML) algorithms applied to self organizing cellular networks is performed. In order for future networks to overcome the current limitations and address the issues of current cellular systems, it is clear that more intelligence needs to be deployed, so that a fully autonomous and flexible network can be enabled. This paper focuses on the learning perspective of Self Organizing Networks (SON) solutions and provides, not only an overview of the most common ML techniques encountered in cellular networks, but also manages to classify each paper in terms of its learning solution, while also giving some examples. The authors also classify each paper in terms of its self-organizing use-case and discuss how each proposed solution performed. In addition, a comparison between the most commonly found ML algorithms in terms of certain SON metrics is performed and general guidelines on when to choose each ML algorithm for each SON function are proposed. Lastly, this work also provides future research directions and new paradigms that the use of more robust and intelligent algorithms, together with data gathered by operators, can bring to the cellular networks domain and fully enable the concept of SON in the near future

Visual Mining and Statistics for a Turbofan Engine Fleet

International audienceSnecma, as a turbofan manufacturer, needs to deal with a wide eet of more than thousands of engines. Every day, data from aircraft engines are broadcas- ted to the ground. Some airlines companies rely on their engine manufacturer to control the engines' behavior and help prepare for maintenance scheduling. The goal of the manufacturer is to detect abnormalities to help schedule main- tenance operations. The advantage of the manufacturer as MRO operator is the registered memory of all past events that appears on its eet of engines. If one opens the possibility to look in this huge amount of data for corresponding similar behaviors, which may have append in the past (for all engines of all customer companies), it becomes possible to make some targeted statistics of the future

Development of an unsupervised remote sensing methodology of detect surface leakage from terrestrial CO2 storage sites

Imperial Users onl

A Behaviour Monitoring System (BMS) for Ambient Assisted Living

Unusual changes in the regular daily mobility routine of an elderly person at home can be an indicator or early symptom of developing health problems. Sensor technology can be utilised to complement the traditional healthcare systems to gain a more detailed view of the daily mobility of a person at home when performing everyday tasks. We hypothesise that data collected from low-cost sensors such as presence and occupancy sensors can be analysed to provide insights on the daily mobility habits of the elderly living alone at home and to detect routine changes. We validate this hypothesis by designing a system that automatically learns the daily room-to-room transitions and permanence habits in each room at each time of the day and generates alarm notifications when deviations are detected. We present an algorithm to process the sensors' data streams and compute sensor-driven features that describe the daily mobility routine of the elderly as part of the developed Behaviour Monitoring System (BMS). We are able to achieve low detection delay with confirmation time that is high enough to convey the detection of a set of common abnormal situations. We illustrate and evaluate BMS with synthetic data, generated by a developed data generator that was designed to mimic different user's mobility profiles at home, and also with a real-life dataset collected from prior research work. Results indicate BMS detects several mobility changes that can be symptoms of common health problems. The proposed system is a useful approach for learning the mobility habits at the home environment, with the potential to detect behaviour changes that occur due to health problems, and therefore, motivating progress toward behaviour monitoring and elder's care.This work has been supported by COMPETE: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043 and FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/2013.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

IMPROVE - Innovative Modelling Approaches for Production Systems to Raise Validatable Efficiency

This open access work presents selected results from the European research and innovation project IMPROVE which yielded novel data-based solutions to enhance machine reliability and efficiency in the fields of simulation and optimization, condition monitoring, alarm management, and quality prediction

A data analytics approach to gas turbine prognostics and health management

As a consequence of the recent deregulation in the electrical power production industry, there has been a shift in the traditional ownership of power plants and the way they are operated. To hedge their business risks, the many new private entrepreneurs enter into long-term service agreement (LTSA) with third parties for their operation and maintenance activities. As the major LTSA providers, original equipment manufacturers have invested huge amounts of money to develop preventive maintenance strategies to minimize the occurrence of costly unplanned outages resulting from failures of the equipments covered under LTSA contracts. As a matter of fact, a recent study by the Electric Power Research Institute estimates the cost benefit of preventing a failure of a General Electric 7FA or 9FA technology compressor at $10 to$20 million. Therefore, in this dissertation, a two-phase data analytics approach is proposed to use the existing monitoring gas path and vibration sensors data to first develop a proactive strategy that systematically detects and validates catastrophic failure precursors so as to avoid the failure; and secondly to estimate the residual time to failure of the unhealthy items. For the first part of this work, the time-frequency technique of the wavelet packet transforms is used to de-noise the noisy sensor data. Next, the time-series signal of each sensor is decomposed to perform a multi-resolution analysis to extract its features. After that, the probabilistic principal component analysis is applied as a data fusion technique to reduce the number of the potentially correlated multi-sensors measurement into a few uncorrelated principal components. The last step of the failure precursor detection methodology, the anomaly detection decision, is in itself a multi-stage process. The obtained principal components from the data fusion step are first combined into a one-dimensional reconstructed signal representing the overall health assessment of the monitored systems. Then, two damage indicators of the reconstructed signal are defined and monitored for defect using a statistical process control approach. Finally, the Bayesian evaluation method for hypothesis testing is applied to a computed threshold to test for deviations from the healthy band. To model the residual time to failure, the anomaly severity index and the anomaly duration index are defined as defects characteristics. Two modeling techniques are investigated for the prognostication of the survival time after an anomaly is detected: the deterministic regression approach, and parametric approximation of the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier plot estimator. It is established that the deterministic regression provides poor prediction estimation. The non parametric survival data analysis technique of the Kaplan-Meier estimator provides the empirical survivor function of the data set comprised of both non-censored and right censored data. Though powerful because no a-priori predefined lifetime distribution is made, the Kaplan-Meier result lacks the flexibility to be transplanted to other units of a given fleet. The parametric analysis of survival data is performed with two popular failure analysis distributions: the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution. The conclusion from the parametric analysis of the Kaplan-Meier plot is that the larger the data set, the more accurate is the prognostication ability of the residual time to failure model.PhDCommittee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Jiang, Xiaomo; Committee Member: Kumar, Virendra; Committee Member: Saleh, Joseph; Committee Member: Vittal, Sameer; Committee Member: Volovoi, Vital