Current challenges for preseismic electromagnetic emissions: shedding light from micro-scale plastic flow, granular packings, phase transitions and self-affinity notion of fracture process

Are there credible electromagnetic (EM) EQ precursors? This a question debated in the scientific community and there may be legitimate reasons for the critical views. The negative view concerning the existence of EM precursors is enhanced by features that accompany their observation which are considered as paradox ones, namely, these signals: (i) are not observed at the time of EQs occurrence and during the aftershock period, (ii) are not accompanied by large precursory strain changes, (iii) are not accompanied by simultaneous geodetic or seismological precursors and (v) their traceability is considered problematic. In this work, the detected candidate EM precursors are studied through a shift in thinking towards the basic science findings relative to granular packings, micron-scale plastic flow, interface depinning, fracture size effects, concepts drawn from phase transitions, self-affine notion of fracture and faulting process, universal features of fracture surfaces, recent high quality laboratory studies, theoretical models and numerical simulations. Strict criteria are established for the definition of an emerged EM anomaly as a preseismic one, while, precursory EM features, which have been considered as paradoxes, are explained. A three-stage model for EQ generation by means of preseismic fracture-induced EM emissions is proposed. The claim that the observed EM precursors may permit a real-time and step-by-step monitoring of the EQ generation is tested

Electro-Magnetic Earthquake Bursts and Critical Rupture of Peroxy Bond Networks in Rocks

We propose a mechanism for the low frequency electromagnetic emissions and other electromagnetic phenomena which have been associated with earthquakes. The mechanism combines the critical earthquake concept and the concept of crust acting as a charging electric battery under increasing stress. The electric charges are released by activation of dormant charge carriers in the oxygen anion sublattice, called peroxy bonds or positive hole pairs (PHP), where a PHP represents an $O_3X/^{OO}\backslash YO_3$ with $X,Y = Si^{4+}, Al^{3+}...$, i.e. an $O^-$ in a matrix of $O^{2-}$ of silicates. We propose that PHP are activated by plastic deformations during the slow cooperative build-up of stress and the increasingly correlated damage culminating in a large ``critical'' earthquake. Recent laboratory experiments indeed show that stressed rocks form electric batteries which can release their charge when a conducting path closes the equivalent electric circuit. We conjecture that the intermittent and erratic occurrences of EM signals are a consequence of the progressive build-up of the battery charges in the Earth crust and their erratic release when crack networks are percolating throughout the stressed rock volumes, providing a conductive pathway for the battery currents to discharge. EM signals are thus expected close to the rupture, either slightly before or after, that is, when percolation is most favored.Comment: 17 pages with 3 figures, extended discussion with 1 added figure and 162 references. The new version provides both a synthesis of two theories and a review of the fiel

On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions

It has been suggested that fracture-induced MHz-kHz electromagnetic (EM) emissions, which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, EM precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena. These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain 'puzzling features' are repetitively observed in candidate fracture-induced pre-seismic EM emissions. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock period. Actually, the view that 'acceptance of 'precursive' EM signals without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected' seems to be reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead, reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in terms of: universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be considered puzzling.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:cond-mat/0603542 by other author

Rocket plume spectrometry: A system permitting engine condition monitoring, as applied to the technology test bed engine

The appearance of visible objects in the exhaust plume of space shuttle main engines (SSME) during test firings is discussed. A program was undertaken to attempt to identify anomalous material resulting from wear, normal or excessive, of internal parts, allowing time monitoring of engine condition or detection of failure precursors. Measurements were taken during test firings at Stennis Space Center and at the Santa Suzanna facility in California. The results indicated that a system having high spectral resolution, a fast time response, and a wide spectral range was required to meet all requirements, thus two special systems have been designed and built. One is the Optical Plume Anomaly Detector (OPAD). The other instrument, which is described in this report, is the superspectrometer, an optical multichannel analyzer having 8,192 channels covering the spectral band 250 to 1,000 nm

Enabling electronic prognostics using thermal data

Prognostics is a process of assessing the extent of deviation or degradation of a product from its expected normal operating condition, and then, based on continuous monitoring, predicting the future reliability of the product. By being able to determine when a product will fail, procedures can be developed to provide advanced warning of failures, optimize maintenance, reduce life cycle costs, and improve the design, qualification and logistical support of fielded and future systems. In the case of electronics, the reliability is often influenced by thermal loads, in the form of steady-state temperatures, power cycles, temperature gradients, ramp rates, and dwell times. If one can continuously monitor the thermal loads, in-situ, this data can be used in conjunction with precursor reasoning algorithms and stress-and-damage models to enable prognostics. This paper discusses approaches to enable electronic prognostics and provides a case study of prognostics using thermal data.Comment: Submitted on behalf of TIMA Editions (http://irevues.inist.fr/tima-editions

Nanoseismic monitoring for detection of rockfalls. Experiments in quarry areas

Le frane per crollo da ammassi rocciosi fratturati sono tra i processi di instabilità gravitativa che più frequentemente interessano opere antropiche quali tagli su versanti naturali o artificiali, pareti di cava, trincee stradali, autostradali o ferroviarie, sia per ciò che attiene le aree di distacco che per quelle di accumulo. Nell’ambito dell’applicazione di sistemi di early warning per la gestione del rischio geologico legato a queste tipologie di frana, una sperimentazione della tecnica del monitoraggio nanosismometrico è stata effettuata presso due siti estrattivi non più in attività: le “Pirrere” della Baia di Cala Rossa sull’isola di Favignana (Trapani), in Sicilia, e la cava dismessa di Acuto (Frosinone), in Italia Centrale. Il monitoraggio nanosismometrico è una tecnica di indagine che consente di individuare e localizzare deboli eventi sismici, fino a magnitudo locale (ML) nell’ordine di -3, attraverso l’impiego di quattro sensori sismometrici disposti secondo una specifica geometria di array detta SNS (Seismic Navigation System). Nel presente lavoro, mediante il software NanoseismicSuite sono stati analizzati 73 eventi di crollo indotti artificialmente attraverso la caduta controllata di blocchi di roccia nei due siti estrattivi abbandonati; sono stati lanciati, simulando fenomeni di rockfalls, rispettivamente 47 blocchi di roccia nella cava di Acuto e 26 eventi in quattro diverse cave a cielo aperto presenti nel settore occidentale di Cala Rossa. Tali eventi, avendo punto epicentrale noto, hanno permesso di determinare il miglior modello di sottosuolo in termini di valori di velocità delle onde P ed S attraverso un’operazione di back analysis. L’analisi è stata, infatti, effettuata variando i valori di velocità e scegliendo quelli relativi all’epicentro teorico ottenuto dall’analisi dell’evento che fosse il più vicino possibile al punto reale di impatto del blocco di roccia. Al fine di valutare la sensibilità della geometria dell’array SNS e l’influenza del sito di installazione sulla capacità di individuare e localizzare gli eventi, le sperimentazioni sono state condotte sia variando il raggio di apertura che la zona di installazione degli array: presso Acuto le acquisizioni di segnale sono state condotte prima con un array SNS con apertura di 20 m e successivamente con un array di apertura 10 m, mentre presso Cala Rossa l’array è stato installato alternativamente all’aperto in un’area di plateau roccioso ed in una galleria facente parte dell’area di cava abbandonata. Analizzando i dati si è ottenuta una precisione dell’ubicazione epicentrale compresa tra il 10 ed il 22% della distanza che intercorre tra la sorgente e l’array nanosismometrico. Il miglior modello di sottosuolo ottenuto per entrambi i casi di studio è risultato avere una velocità delle onde P pari a 900 m/s ed un rapporto VP/VS pari a 1.73, valori in accordo con le condizioni di intenso stato di fratturazione delle rocce carbonatiche affioranti nelle due zone di cava. Per gli eventi di crollo indotti la magnitudo ML è risultata essere compresa tra -2.8 e -1.3; considerando l’energia sviluppata dall’impatto, legata alla massa del blocco ed all’altezza e alla velocità di caduta, non è stato possibile definire una relazione tra magnitudo ed energia, probabilmente a causa delle differenti caratteristiche del punto di impatto dei diversi blocchi. In generale, si è osservato che la precisione di ubicazione degli eventi, in termini di azimuth e distanza dal reale epicentro, è risultata paragonabile sia variando l’apertura dell’array che variando il sito di installazione. Per il sito sperimentale di Acuto, il processo di picking manuale del tempo di primo arrivo delle onde P è risultato essere più affidabile nel caso di array con apertura pari a 10 m. La sperimentazione effettuata a Cala Rossa ha permesso, invece, di osservare una migliore capacità di individuazione degli eventi nelle tracce relative all’array posizionato in galleria a causa della minore rumorosità di base del sito di installazione. Tra le registrazioni sismometriche sono state identificate varie tipologie di segnali, oltre a quelli generati dal lancio dei blocchi, alcune riconducibili ad eventi naturali di crollo altre a deboli terremoti. L’analisi dei segnali riferibili alla prima tipologia di eventi naturali, effettuata tenendo in considerazione i modelli di sottosuolo precedentemente calibrati, ha portato all’identificazione in ambedue i siti di aree aventi maggiore suscettibilità a frane per crollo. In definitiva, si può ritenere che i risultati ottenuti in questo studio siano incoraggianti rispetto all’efficacia della tecnica di monitoraggio nanosismometrico nell’individuazione e nell’ubicazione di fenomeni di crollo in roccia e portano a ritenere questa tecnica potenzialmente applicabile in aree in cui tali eventi possono interferire con infrastrutture antropiche.In the frame of early warning and risk mitigation studies for landslide processes involving rock masses, two quarry areas (Cala Rossa Bay in Sicily and Acuto in Central Italy) were monitored with SNS (Seismic Navigation System) arrays. In this study, 73 rockfalls were simulated by launches of rock blocks. This allowed to perform a back analysis for defining the best seismic velocity model of the subsoil half-space; the records related to each impact caused by the rock block launch were managed by the nanoseismic monitoring approach, varying the velocity model to obtain a theoretical epicentre as close as possible to the actual location of the impact point. In order to evaluate the sensibility of the SNS array, the results obtained by different array apertures and positions were compared in terms of azimuth and distance error with respect to the real epicentres. On the other hand, several natural rockfalls were detected; their analysis allowed to identify areas having higher susceptibility to rockfalls by using the previously calibrated subsoil half-space model. Further studies are required to better define the areas prone to rockfall generation in the considered test sites; nevertheless, the here obtained results show an encouraging perspective about the application of the nanoseismic monitoring with respect to vulnerable infrastructures in rockfall prone areas

Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output is a map of areas in a seismogenic region (``hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. These forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future earthquakes will occur where earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.Comment: 10(+1) pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Nonlinearl Processes in Geophysics on 5 August 200

Principles of Organizing Earthquake Forecasting Based on Multiparameter Sensor-WEB Monitoring Data

The paper describes an approach that allows, basing on the data of multiparameter monitoring of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters and using ground-based and satellite measurements, to select from the data stream a time interval indicating the beginning of the final stage of earthquake preparation, and finally using intelligent data processing to carry out a short-term forecast for a time interval of 2 weeks to 1 day before the main shock. Based on the physical model of the lithosphere-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling, the precursors are selected, the ensemble of which is observed only during the precursory periods, and their identification is based on morphological features determined by the physical mechanism of their generation, and not on amplitude selection based on statistical data processing. Basing on the developed maquette of the automatic processing service, the possibility of real-time monitoring of the situation in a seismically active region will be demonstrated using the territory of the Kamchatka region and the Kuril Islands

Statistical Mechanics and Information-Theoretic Perspectives on Complexity in the Earth System

Peer reviewedPublisher PD