Evaluation of climate and hydrological models for impact projections in the Upper Indus basin

Ph. D. ThesisWater resources in the Indus basin are under acute and growing stress. How climate change will affect this situation in the coming decades depends substantially on responses in the datasparse mountains of the upper basin. However, model projections of changes in the cryosphere-dominated hydrology here are highly uncertain. Integral to this uncertainty are challenges in: characterising near-surface climate fields needed for model input; selecting appropriate model structures to balance process fidelity with data availability; and understanding the wide spread in climate model projections used in impact assessments. As such, this thesis aims to identify pathways for refined hydrological projections in the upper Indus basin through in-depth evaluation of climate, cryospheric and hydrological models. Firstly, using the High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR), the study assesses how relatively high resolution regional climate modelling can help describe spatiotemporal variability in nearsurface climate. The HAR exhibits substantial skill in many respects, but particularly in capturing the complex patterns of precipitation in the basin. Some seasonally varying biases in temperature and incoming radiation suggest deficiencies in snow and cloud representations that are likely resolvable. Secondly, the Factorial Snowpack Model (FSM) is driven with the HAR to examine the feasibility and required structure of process-based snowpack modelling. Model correspondence with local observations and remote sensing is good for a subset of FSM configurations using a prognostic albedo parameterisation, as well as a representation of liquid water retention, drainage and melt/refreezing cycles in the snowpack. The multiphysics approach additionally highlights the inputs and processes needing further investigation, which include the atmospheric stability adjustment. Thirdly, using an adapted FSM program and TOPKAPI-ETH, simplified representations of cryospheric processes are compared with more process-based approaches. This helps to identify where systematic differences in hydrological response occur and their connection with spatial and temporal scales. It is found that an enhanced temperature index (ETI) model exhibits behaviour and climate sensitivity more akin to energy balance formulations than a classical temperature index model. However, there may be structural limits to the fidelity of the ETI formulation under cloudy conditions, while further attention is needed on the translation of surface melt to runoff, especially at high elevations. ii The study then moves to examine controls on regional trends and variability simulated by climate models, focusing on temperature in CMIP5 GCMs. While the models partly reproduce key regional atmospheric circulation influences, variation in summer temperature responses depends on differing snow and albedo representations. Ultimately this may offer some potential to constrain temperature projections. Finally, using CMIP5 and HAPPI GCM outputs, the study explores climate and hydrological projections under selected global warming stabilisation scenarios. This shows that shifts in the timing of runoff are discernible even for low warming targets. Overall water availability may depend particularly on natural variability in precipitation, but in dry years the pressures on water resources in the basin could worsen in future. Further efforts to constrain the range of projections using observations and process-based reasoning are required, but effective water resources management in the basin is likely to depend on increasing resilience to a wide range of climatic and hydrological variability

Remote Sensing of Environmental Changes in Cold Regions

This Special Issue gathers papers reporting recent advances in the remote sensing of cold regions. It includes contributions presenting improvements in modeling microwave emissions from snow, assessment of satellite-based sea ice concentration products, satellite monitoring of ice jam and glacier lake outburst floods, satellite mapping of snow depth and soil freeze/thaw states, near-nadir interferometric imaging of surface water bodies, and remote sensing-based assessment of high arctic lake environment and vegetation recovery from wildfire disturbances in Alaska. A comprehensive review is presented to summarize the achievements, challenges, and opportunities of cold land remote sensing

IMPLICATIONS OF MODULATING GLACIERS AND SNOW COVER IN MONGOLIA

Mongolia’s cryosphere (glaciers and snow cover) drives ecosystem services and in turn, supports emerging economies in the water-restricted country. However, as Mongolia experiences long-term drought conditions and an increase in annual air temperatures at twice the global rate, the potential adverse effects of the changing cryosphere during a period of climate uncertainty will have cascading implications to water availability and economic development. Using several data sources and methods, I partitioned my dissertation into two components to determine the hydrologic and economic implications of modulations in Mongolia’s cryosphere. The first component is an examination of glacier recession in Mongolia’s Altai Mountains, where I identified the major drivers of glacier recession and the role of glaciers in the regional hydrology. In the second component we created novel techniques to detect snowmelt events and to determine their role in large annual livestock mortality across Mongolia. In chapter 2 we identified a rate of glacier recession of 6.4 ± 0.4 km2 yr-1 from 1990-2016, resulting in an overall decrease in glacier area of 43%, which were comparable to rates of recession in mountain ranges across Central Asia. In chapter 3 we found that glaciers contributed up to 22% of the regional hydrology in the glaciated Upper Khovd River Basin (UKRB) and glacier melt contributions began to decrease after 2016, suggesting an overall depletion of accumulation zones. In chapter 4, we developed a novel approach to detect snow melt events in Alaska, USA – due to its high satellite coverage, climate monitoring network, and previous existing studies – and produced a gridded geospatial data product. In chapter 5, we expanded on the novel methods developed in chapter 4 to determine the spatio-temporal role of snowmelt events on large annual livestock mortality in Mongolia. Results showed strong correlations between snowmelt events and mortality in the southern Gobi during the fall and the central and western regions during the spring. As Mongolia continues to develop climatically vulnerable economic industries, future modulations in Mongolia’s cryosphere will likely decrease regional water-availability and amplify annual livestock mortality

Historical and future trends in global snow conditions – observed by remote sensing and forecasted by spatio-temporal modelling

Snow resources worldwide are undergoing extensive changes in response to widespread and rapid changing of the global climate. These resources are vital in many areas and changes to them have and will continue to impact human societies and ecosystems in cold regions. The research presented in this dissertation entails the assessment and comparison of historical trends in the climate and snow regimes and the projection of these trends until the end of the 21st century, under different emission scenarios. The results show that extensive changes have occurred to the frequency of Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover since the beginning of the 21st century, as estimated based on remote sensing data from the MODIS satellite instrument. The future evolution of NH snow resources was modelled for the period 1950-2100 for each of the 21 downscaled and bias corrected CMIP5 climate models for two emission scenarios (RCP45 and RCP85) using the Snow17 model. The simulations show that the Snow Cover Frequency (SCF) is in general projected to diminish substantially across the NH. However, the NH 1st April Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is projected to increase slightly at the beginning of the period, driven by increased snowfall at high latitudes in the Arctic and then decline back to 1950-1975 levels under RCP45 and 10% under those given RCP85. These trends were analyzed specifically for Icelandic circumstances revealing a trend of increasing SCF in many parts of the country over the period 1930-2021, whereas the simulated results project a decrease in SCF across Iceland between 1950 to 2100.Snjóauðlindir víðsvegar um heiminn eru nú breytingum undiropnar í kjölfar hnattrænna loftlagsbreytinga. Þessar auðlindir eru mikilvægar víðsvegar og breytingar á eðli þeirra hafa haft og munu halda áfram að hafa áhrif á mannleg samfélög og vistkerfi á kvöldum svæðum. Rannsókn sú er birt er í þessari ritgerð fjallar um greiningu og samanburð á sögulegri þróun loftlags og snjós og gerð forspár um það hvernig væntar loftlagsbreytingar munu hafa áhrif á snjóauðlindir út 21 öldina miðað við mismunandi sviðsmyndir í hlýnun. Niðurstöður rannsóknarinnar sýna fram á að víðtækar breytingar hafa þegar orðið á snjóþekju á Norður Hveli jarðar (NH) frá byrjun 21 aldarinnar útfrá fjarkönnunargögnum frá MODIS gervihnattamælinum. Spáð var fyrir um framtíðarþróun snjóauðlinda á NH fyrir tímabilið 1950-2100 með Snow17 snjólíkaninu útfrá 21 CMIP5 loflagslíkönum fyrir tvö hlýnunartilvik (RCP45 og RCP85). Niðurstöður líkansins gefa til kynna að tíðni snjóhulu (SCF) muni almennt minnka verulega um allt NH en að hinsvegar, muni meðal rúmál vatns sem geymt er í snjóalögum NH aukast lítillega í byrjun tímabilsins, aðallega vegna aukinnar snjókomu og norðlægum breiddargráðum innan norðurheimskautsbaugs, en minnka svo aftur að því sem var um 1950 fyrir RCP45 en 10% neðar en svo fyrir RCP85.. Þróun í loftlagi og snjóauðlindum var rannsökuð sérstaklega á Íslandi, sem leiddi í ljós tölfræðilega marktækta aukningu á SCF stórum svæðum frá aldamótum, spá um þróun snjóauðlinda út 21 öldina gerir hinsvegar ráð fyrir verulegri minnkun á SCF í öllum hæðarbilum á Íslandi.Doktorsstyrkjasjóður Háskóla Ísland

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment

This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC). This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports. ; Constitutes the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, providing an authoritative overview of the region Assembles the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, practitioners, experts, and policymakers Combines the current state of knowledge of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region in one volume Offers Open Access to a set of practically oriented policy recommendation

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Spatial variability of aircraft-measured surface energy fluxes in permafrost landscapes

Arctic ecosystems are undergoing a very rapid change due to global warming and their response to climate change has important implications for the global energy budget. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how energy fluxes in the Arctic will respond to any changes in climate related parameters. However, attribution of these responses is challenging because measured fluxes are the sum of multiple processes that respond differently to environmental factors. Here, we present the potential of environmental response functions for quantitatively linking energy flux observations over high latitude permafrost wetlands to environmental drivers in the flux footprints. We used the research aircraft POLAR 5 equipped with a turbulence probe and fast temperature and humidity sensors to measure turbulent energy fluxes along flight tracks across the Alaskan North Slope with the aim to extrapolate the airborne eddy covariance flux measurements from their specific footprint to the entire North Slope. After thorough data pre-processing, wavelet transforms are used to improve spatial discretization of flux observations in order to relate them to biophysically relevant surface properties in the flux footprint. Boosted regression trees are then employed to extract and quantify the functional relationships between the energy fluxes and environmental drivers. Finally, the resulting environmental response functions are used to extrapolate the sensible heat and water vapor exchange over spatio-temporally explicit grids of the Alaskan North Slope. Additionally, simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used to explore the dynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer and to examine results of our extrapolation

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment

This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC). This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports. ; Constitutes the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, providing an authoritative overview of the region Assembles the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, practitioners, experts, and policymakers Combines the current state of knowledge of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region in one volume Offers Open Access to a set of practically oriented policy recommendation