Optimization of Combat Dynamics

This report outlines research accomplishments for a two-year project studying the optimization of combat dynamics. Results were obtained for two basic topics: (1) obtaining insights into the dynamics of combat by mathematically analyzing relatively simple Lanchester-type models, and (2) investigating the structure of optimal time-sequential tactical decisions with such simple differntial-equation models. However, research efforts were primarily concentrated on the first topic, and new research directions were established (e.g. ground-breaking work on simple-approximate battle-outcome-prediction conditions). A complete list of publications originating from the project is given.R&D PROJECT NO. 1L161102BH57-05 MAT

Lanchester-Type Models of Warfare, Volume I

The Twentieth Century has been characterized by innumerable attempts to use the Scientific Method as a basis for policy planning in national and international affairs. The emergence of the field of operations research (OR) out of attempts of scientists in the Western Democracies to apply the Scientific Method to military problems during World War II is well known. Since World War II there has been a dramatic growth in both the interest in and use of OR and systems-analysis techniques for such purposes within the U.S. defense establish- ment, especially since the beginning of the so-called McNamara Era of defense planning. A concomitant trend has been an equally dramatic increase in both the number and variety of mathematical models used to support these analytical activities

Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences

This is an open access book. Lewis F Richardson (1981-1953), a physicist by training, was a pioneer in meteorology and peace research and remains a towering presence in both fields. This edited volume reviews his work and assesses its influence in the social sciences, notably his work on arms races and their consequences, mathematical models, the size distribution of wars, and geographical features of conflict. It contains brief bibliographies of his main publications and of articles and books written about Richardson and his work and discusses his continuing influence in peace research and international relations as well as his attitude to the ethical responsibilities of a scientist. It will be of interest to a wide range of scholars. This book includes 11 chapters written by Nils Petter Gleditsch, Dina A Zinnes, Ron Smith, Paul F Diehl, Kelly Kadera, Mark Crescenzi, Michael D Ward, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Nils B Weidmann, Jürgen Scheffran, Niall MacKay, Aaron Clauset, Michael Spagat and Stijn van Weezel. Lewis F Richardson occupied an important position in two academic fields as different as meteorology and peace research, with academic prizes awarded in both disciplines. In peace research, he pioneered the use of mathematical models and the meticulous compilation of databases for empirical research. As a quaker and pacifist, he refused to work in preparations for war, paid a heavy prize in terms of his career, and (at least in the social sciences) was fully recognized as a pioneering scholar only posthumously with the publication of two major books. Lewis Fry Richardson is one of the 20th century’s greatest but least appreciated thinkers—a creative physicist, psychologist, meteorologist, applied mathematician, historian, pacifist, statistician, and witty stylist. If you’ve heard of weather prediction, chaos, fractals, cliometrics, peace science, big data, thick tails, or black swans, then you have benefited from Richardson’s prescience in bringing unruly phenomena into the ambit of scientific understanding. Richardson’s ideas continue to be relevant today, and this collection is a superb retrospective on this brilliant and lovable man. Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor, Harvard University, and the author of The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment No

Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences

This is an open access book. Lewis F Richardson (1981-1953), a physicist by training, was a pioneer in meteorology and peace research and remains a towering presence in both fields. This edited volume reviews his work and assesses its influence in the social sciences, notably his work on arms races and their consequences, mathematical models, the size distribution of wars, and geographical features of conflict. It contains brief bibliographies of his main publications and of articles and books written about Richardson and his work and discusses his continuing influence in peace research and international relations as well as his attitude to the ethical responsibilities of a scientist. It will be of interest to a wide range of scholars. This book includes 11 chapters written by Nils Petter Gleditsch, Dina A Zinnes, Ron Smith, Paul F Diehl, Kelly Kadera, Mark Crescenzi, Michael D Ward, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Nils B Weidmann, Jürgen Scheffran, Niall MacKay, Aaron Clauset, Michael Spagat and Stijn van Weezel. Lewis F Richardson occupied an important position in two academic fields as different as meteorology and peace research, with academic prizes awarded in both disciplines. In peace research, he pioneered the use of mathematical models and the meticulous compilation of databases for empirical research. As a quaker and pacifist, he refused to work in preparations for war, paid a heavy prize in terms of his career, and (at least in the social sciences) was fully recognized as a pioneering scholar only posthumously with the publication of two major books. Lewis Fry Richardson is one of the 20th century’s greatest but least appreciated thinkers—a creative physicist, psychologist, meteorologist, applied mathematician, historian, pacifist, statistician, and witty stylist. If you’ve heard of weather prediction, chaos, fractals, cliometrics, peace science, big data, thick tails, or black swans, then you have benefited from Richardson’s prescience in bringing unruly phenomena into the ambit of scientific understanding. Richardson’s ideas continue to be relevant today, and this collection is a superb retrospective on this brilliant and lovable man. Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor, Harvard University, and the author of The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment No

Modeling and Analysis of Resolve and Morale for the `Long War\u27

In The Art of War, Sun Tzu begins by stating: War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied. Sun Tzu follow\u27s this opening by stating five fundamental factors a commander must master to be successful in combat. The first of these factors is moral influence which Sun Tzu defines as that which causes the people to be in harmony with their leaders, so they will accompany them in life and death without fear of mortal peril. In the face of the instant communication provided by satellites, 24 hour news media coverage, and other technological advances, this factor is even more relevant today. This research provides an analytic framework, based on the principles of fourth generation operations, capturing the effects of will and resolve of the combatant and population. The strategic level model investigates the long term impacts of asymmetric conflict. These results are primarily measured in the socio-political arena rather than the military battlefield. The model developed in this dissertation remains a model of conflict and combat. However, some of the impacts from the political, economic, and informational instruments of power are represented in the model through the dynamic adaptation of public resolve and combat spirit. To paraphrase Sun Tzu, war is vitally important and must be studied. Therefore, this dissertation puts forth a means to model key aspects of conflict in the `long war\u27

Aeronautical Engineering: A continuing bibliography with indexes

This bibliography lists 382 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in June 1982

Air Force Institute of Technology Research Report 2011

This report summarizes the research activities of the Air Force Institute of Technology’s Graduate School of Engineering and Management. It describes research interests and faculty expertise; lists student theses/dissertations; identifies research sponsors and contributions; and outlines the procedures for contacting the school. Included in the report are: faculty publications, conference presentations, consultations, and funded research projects. Research was conducted in the areas of Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering, Electrical Engineering and Electro-Optics, Computer Engineering and Computer Science, Systems and Engineering Management, Operational Sciences, Mathematics, Statistics and Engineering Physics

Recent Naval Postgraduate School Publications / FY 1981

This publication contains a listing for each faculty member from each department indicating the conference presentations, contributions to books, published papers and technical reports and notes.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Analyzing South Korea's counterinvasion capability against North Korea

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 87-90).Assuming there is another North Korean invasion; could the South Koreans counterinvade North Korea and prevail even without the United States' assistance? This paper studies the possibility of a South Korean counterinvasion against North Korea by looking at the qualitative combat dynamics and performing a formal campaign analyses based on the Korean peninsula's conventional military balance. This study first analyzes the process of the South Korean defensive against the North Korean invasion, and examines South Korea's likely counterinvasion scenarios and assesses their chances of success. These scenarios vary based on North Korea's likely courses of action once its offensive fails, depending on whether the North Koreans retreat to the military demarcation line or hold their position within the South territory. According to this paper's analysis, South Korea is capable of counterinvading North Korea in all the scenarios suggested. South Korea possesses a qualitatively superior force with better readiness and logistics powered by a stronger economy, while the North Koreans lack the force effectiveness necessary to carry out their theory of victory. First, the South Korean forces are capable of fending off a North Korean invasion while inflicting severe damage to the North Koreans; second, the South Korean forces would inflict considerable casualty to the North Koreans during their retreat; finally, the South Korean offensive would be capable of breaking through the weakened North Korean defense. This study makes several contributions. First, it examines the puzzle of South Korean counterinvasion that has been under-discussed despite its political and strategic significance. In doing so, the study presents an opportunity to explain North Korea's recent behaviors and the United States' redefinition of its role involving the peninsula, hence increasing our understanding of the East Asian security dynamics. Second, by providing an updated survey of the peninsula's conventional balance, this study enhances our knowledge in the two Korea's strategic capabilities which have undergone considerable changes. Third, this study advances our usage of campaign analyses by applying a phased use of the models with changing parameters. This approach enables us to analyze multi-phased campaigns comprised of different dynamics with better accuracy.by Jonghyuk Chung.S.M