Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector

There is plenty of evidence that growth has a negative relation to fertility and dependency ratios. Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent based simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth and population path is provoked into a fertility trap by rising relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.low fertility trap; social norms relative income; economic growth

Towards a Sustainable Life: Smart and Green Design in Buildings and Community

This Special Issue includes contributions about occupants’ sustainable living in buildings and communities, highlighting issues surrounding the sustainable development of our environments and lives by emphasizing smart and green design perspectives. This Special Issue specifically focuses on research and case studies that develop promising methods for the sustainable development of our environment and identify factors critical to the application of a sustainable paradigm for quality of life from a user-oriented perspective. After a rigorous review of the submissions by experts, fourteen articles concerning sustainable living and development are published in this Special Issue, written by authors sharing their expertise and approaches to the concept and application of sustainability in their fields. The fourteen contributions to this special issue can be categorized into four groups, depending on the issues that they address. All the proposed methods, models, and applications in these studies contribute to the current understanding of the adoption of the sustainability paradigm and are likely to inspire further research addressing the challenges of constructing sustainable buildings and communities resulting in a sustainable life for all of society

Low fertility and long-run growth in an economy with a large public sector

Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent-based simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth and population path is calibrated to Swedish data using the Swedish social policy setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.Il a été suggéré récemment que les pays à basse fécondité pourraient être victimes d’un piège dont ils auraient du mal à se dégager. Un mécanisme essentiel dans ce piège serait l’interaction sociale et son effet sur la taille idéale de famille. Des mécanismes de ce type sont difficiles à représenter dans un modèle formel, et c’est pourquoi nous avons eu recours à un modèle de simulation multi-agents pour explorer le processus. Dans notre dispositif expérimental, un modèle de croissance et de population stable est calibré aux données suédoises, en utilisant la configuration suédoise de politique sociale. Le modèle est entraîné dans un piège de fécondité en élevant les coûts relatifs de l’enfant en lien avec la croissance positive. Dans ce cas, même des augmentations importantes des prestations familiales sont insuffisantes pour sortir du piège. Toutefois, le petit nombre d’enfants permet temporairement à l’économie de croître plus rapidement pendant quelques décennies. L’arrêt de l’adaptation aux normes sociales conduit à une neutralisation du piège

Shrinking population and the urban hierarchy

This paper examines whether population shrinkage leads to changes in urban hierarchy in terms of their relative size and function from the standpoint of the new economic geography. We find some salient patterns in which small cities in the agglomeration shadow become relatively bigger as medium industries spill over on them. This appears to be quite robust against a variation in the rate of natural change among cities. Thus, rank-size relationship and the urban hierarchy are partly disrupted as population shrinks. Regarding the welfare of the residents, a lower demand for land initially causes rent to go down, which boosts the utility. However, the illusion is short-lived because markets soon begin to shrink and suppress wages. We also find that it is better to maintain a slow pace of overall population decline in the long-term perspective. More importantly, it is crucial to sustain the relative livability of smaller cities to minimize the overall loss of utility

Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach

학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2019. 2. 구윤모.Over the last few decades, Korea has been recognized as one of the most dynamic economies in the world. Recently, however, the country has lost its growth momentum and concerns over its stagnant economy have mounted. Among many contributors, this study is centered on deindustrialization (shift to service economy) and an aging population. To address the two issues, an age-specific division of the labor system is proposed as an alternative. The core idea is to allocate workers of various ages to better suited sectors based on the sectoral and occupational productivity by age. The age-based reallocation of labor is believed to increase overall productivity, and thus, production of the entire economy. Among a number of policies to realize the intended division of labor, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of incentive policies in reallocating workers of different generations to better suited sectors. This paper designs five different incentive policy scenarios, each of which intends sectoral switches in different directions by various age-groups. To examine the reallocation incentive policies, this study adopts the four-period Overlapping Generations (OLG) Computable General Equilibrium Model, incorporating individuals heterogeneity in abilities and career path choices. The general trend of heterogeneous attributes is estimated with labor and income panel data. The findings show that there are two types of contributors to the labor reallocation results intended by the policies, the incentive beneficiaries changing their sector and non-recipients who also switch their sectors due to changes in economic variables, including wage rate. It is observed that for a certain incentive scenario, the contribution of sector switches indirectly affected by the policies is the same or even larger than that of direct incentive benefits. Furthermore, a different mix of incentive policies results in various levels of discrepancy in the sectoral standard wage rates. Hence, it is of great importance to carefully examine the direct and indirect effects of incentive policies in a long-term period, as well as the wage rate inequality for better policy-making.한국은 과거 가장 역동적인 경제 중 하나로 분류되었지만, 현재는 경제 성장의 동력을 잃어 가고 있다. 다양한 요소들 중에서, 본 연구는 고령화와 경제의 탈산업화(서비스화)에 중점을 두고 있다. 이 두가지 현안을 해결하기 위해 제안되는 방법 중 하나는 청장년층과 고령층 노동자를 각각 비교 우위가 있는 산업군으로의 노동 분업이 있다. 본 연구는 연령별 노동 분업 정책 분석을 위한 기초 단계로 연령에 따른 산업군 이동을 유도하기 위한 보조금을 제공하는 정책에 대해 연구한다. 본 연구에서는 이를 위해서 4기 중첩세대 연산가능 일반균형모형을 이용한다. 또한, 한국 노동 및 임금 패널 자료를 바탕으로 개인의 산업별, 그리고 연령별 능력 이질성을 반영하고자 하였다. 이 모형을 통하여 특정 연령 또는 특정 산업으로의 진입을 유도하는 5가지 보조금 정책 시나리오를 분석하였다. 가상의 시나리오 결과는 보조금의 직접 수혜자 뿐만 아니라, 임금률과 같은 경제변수들의 변화로 인해 간접적으로 정책의 영향을 받는 노동자가 존재함을 보여주었다. 또한, 특정 시나리오에서는 보조금 비수혜자가 산업별 노동 재분배에 기여하는 바가 보조금 수혜자와 같거나 그 보다 클 수 있다는 것이 나타났다. 그리고, 한 세대만의 산업 이동 보다는 다양한 세대의 다른 방향으로의 산업 이동은 산업 군 간의 임금 격차를 줄이는 결과를 보였다. 본 연구는 실증 분석은 이루어지지 않았으나, 다양한 시뮬레이션을 통해서 보조금 지원 정책을 입안하는데 있어서 장·단기적, 그리고 직·간접적 효과를 종합적으로 고려해야함을 시사하고 있다.Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Purpose and Methodology 4 1.3 Outline of the Study 6 Chapter 2. Literature review 7 2.1 Age-Specific Labor Productivity 7 2.2 General Equilibrium Analysis of Labor Market 8 2.3 OLG-CGE Model Approaches 9 Chapter 3. Methods 11 3.1 OLG-CGE Model Description 11 3.1.1 Four-period life-cycle model 11 3.1.2 Basic concept of model 12 3.1.3 The model description 19 3.2 Career Path Choice Model 24 3.2.1 Career Path Choice Mechanism 25 3.2.2 Soft-linking with CGE Model 26 3.3 Calibration 28 3.3.1 Initialization 29 3.3.2 Population 30 3.3.3 Initial Steady-State 31 3.4 Incentive Policy Scenarios 32 Chapter 4. Simulations and Results 33 4.1 Scenario 1 33 4.2 Scenario 2 37 4.3 Scenario 3 40 4.4 Scenario 4 44 4.5 Scenario 5 48 4.6 Aggregate Effects Over All Time Periods 52 Chapter 5. Conclusions 54 Chapter 6. Bibliography 57 Appendix 1: Estimation of Earning Profile 61Maste

비동질적 경제주체를 가정한 거시경제모형과 공공정책에 관한 연구

학위논문(박사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 사회과학대학 경제학부, 2023. 8. 홍재화.저소득 가구에게 현금지원을 제공하는 복지제도인 근로장려세제(Earned Income Tax Credit, 이하 EITC)는 경제활동을 통한 근로소득을 수급요건으로 한다는 점에서 다른 복지제도와 차별화된다. 이러한 노동시장참여 요건으로 인해 EITC는 저소득 가구에게 현금지원뿐만 아니라 노동시장에 참여하고자 할 유인(incentive)을 제공한다. 그 동안 Eissa and Liebman (1996)을 비롯한 많은 실증연구들이 EITC의 노동공급 효과를 분석하여 노동시장 참여를 늘린다는 결과를 제시하였다. 그러나 Eissa and Liebman (1996)이 결론에서 언급한 바와 같이 노동공급 효과는 EITC의 전체적인 후생효과를 분석하는데 필요한 정보의 일부이다: A full evaluation of [...] the EITC requires more than just an estimate of the [...] impact [...] on the labor supply of transfer recipients. It also requires information on the value of the additional income received by program beneficiaries as well as the change in the amount of leisure that they consume. 그럼에도 불구하고 소득에 대한 효과(Hoynes and Patel, 2018)나 후생수준 혹은 생애주기에 걸친 장기적 효과(Athreya et al., 2014; Blundell et al., 2016)에 대한 연구는 비교적 적게 이루어져왔다. 본 논문은 이러한 측면에서 EITC의 효과를 보다 잘 이해함으로써 EITC 연구 문헌의 틈을 메우는 것을 목표로 한다. 구체적으로, 본 논문은 Huggett (1993)과 Aiyagari (1994)로 대표되는 현대 거시경제학의 주요 모형 중 하나인 비동질적 경제주체 기반의 거시경제모형(heterogeneous-agent macroeconomic model)을 구축하여 다음 질문들에 답하고자 한다: EITC의 (i) 노동공급 및 생애소득, (ii) 저축, 소비 및 후생수준에 대한 장기적 효과에 있어 기존연구에서 고려되지 않은 공적연금제도가 어떤 역할을 하는가? (iii) 박지혜 ‧ 이정민(2018)의 실증연구에서 제시된 바와 같이 왜 한국의 일부 EITC 확대개편은 노동공급을 늘리는데 효과적이지 못했는가? 논문의 첫 번째 장과 두 번째 장에서는 공적연금제도가 EITC의 장기적 효과에 미치는 영향에 대해 분석하였다. 많은 나라의 공적연금제도는 근로연령 동안 더 많은 노동공급을 통해 연금기여금(혹은 연금보험료)을 많이 낼수록 은퇴 후 받게 될 연금급여가 증가하도록 설계되어있다. 따라서 근로연령 중 EITC에 대한 노동공급 반응은 현재 소득뿐만 아니라 공적연금제도를 통해 은퇴 후의 연금소득 또한 증가시킬 수 있다. 또한, Liebman and Luttmer (2015)의 연구가 보여주고 있는 것처럼 사람들이 이러한 공적연금을 통한 노동공급의 미래수익(dynamic return)을 잘 인지하지 못하고 있다면, 이에 대한 정보제공을 통해 EITC에 대한 노동공급 반응이 더 커질 수 있다. 더 나아가 이러한 정보제공은 저소득 가구로 하여금 노후대비 저축을 줄이면서 은퇴 이전에도 소비를 늘릴 수 있게끔 하는 소비평탄화(consumption smoothing) 효과를 통해 EITC의 후생효과를 더 크게 만들 수 있다. 이와 같은 맥락에서 본 논문의 1, 2장에서는 EITC의 생애소득과 후생수준에 대한 장기적 효과와 더불어 공적연금에 의해 발생하는 노동공급의 미래수익의 중요성을 정량적으로 분석하였다. 이를 위해 우선 가구의 노동시장참여와 소비, 저축에 대한 선택이 내생적으로 이루어지며 가구의 예산제약식에 EITC 및 공적연금제도를 명시적으로 고려한 비동질적 경제주체 기반의 생애주기 모형(heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model)을 구축하였다. 다음으로 모형이 한국경제를 잘 설명할 수 있도록 모수들은 설정(calibration)하고, EITC의 직접적 영향을 받는 가구들에 대한 분석에 초점을 맞추기 위해 노동생산성이 낮은 삶을 살아가게 될 신생아(newborn)에 대한 장기적 효과를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 공적연금을 통한 노동공급의 미래수익은 EITC의 생애소득과 후생수준에 대한 효과 중 각각 절반, 4분의 1 정도를 설명할 만큼 중요한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 노동공급의 미래수익에 대한 정보제공이 EITC의 긍정적 효과를 상당히 크게 만들 수 있음을 시사한다. 마지막 장에서는 앞서 구축한 생애주기 모형을 활용하여 박지혜 ‧ 이정민(2018)의 실증분석 결과에 대한 해석을 제시하고 있다. 박지혜 ‧ 이정민(2018)의 주요 결과 중 하나는 분석기간에 2014-2016년을 포함하게 되면 EITC 확대개편의 노동공급 효과가 상당히 작거나 통계적으로 유의하지 않게 추정된다는 것이다. 한국 EITC 확대개편의 특징 중 하나는 단독가구가 연령별로 점차 수급할 수 있게 되었다는 것이다. 구체적으로 2012년까지는 수급대상에 단독가구가 포함되어있지 않았으나 2013년부터 60세 이상의 단독가구가, 2015년부터 50대 단독가구가, 2016년부터 40대 단독가구가 수급대상에 포함되었다. 이는 EITC에 대한 노동공급 반응이 연령별로 달랐을 수 있음을 시사한다. 즉, 2014년 이후로 수급대상에 포함된 50대, 40대에서의 노동공급 반응이 비교적 작게 나타났을 수 있다는 것이다. 앞선 장에서 구축한 생애주기 모형에 의하면 연령별 노동공급 탄력성이 60대에서 가장 높고 40대에서 가장 낮은 것으로 나타난다. 이러한 연령별 노동공급 탄력성의 차이는 연령별 노동생산성과 자산수준의 차이에서 비롯된다. 연령별 노동생산성이 가장 높고 노후대비 저축동기를 어느정도 갖는 40대는 EITC가 없더라도 이미 일을 하고 있을 가능성이 높다. 이는 EITC가 이들의 노동시장참여를 늘릴 여지가 적다는 것을 의미한다. 반대로 은퇴가 가까운 60대의 경우, 노동생산성이 40대보다 낮고 이미 노후소비를 충당하기 위한 자산을 어느정도 축적한 상태이기 때문에 EITC 없이 일을 할 유인이 40대에 비해 작다. 이는 EITC가 60대의 노동시장참여를 늘릴 여지가 크다는 것을 의미한다. 이러한 결과는 EITC의 노동공급에 대한 평균적 효과뿐만 아니라 다양한 사회인구학적 집단별 효과에 대해 보다 많은 실증분석이 이루어질 필요가 있음을 시사한다.The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is a means-tested income support program, but it differs from other welfare programs in that it requires earned income as a qualification. Therefore, the EITC provides labor supply incentives as well as cash transfers to low-income households. Pioneered by Eissa and Liebman (1996), many empirical studies have investigated its labor supply effect and found that tax credit programs increase the target individuals labor market participation. However, as noted by Eissa and Liebman (1996), the labor supply effect is a piece that shapes the picture of the overall welfare consequence of the EITC. In their conclusion, they stated: A full evaluation of [...] the EITC requires more than just an estimate of the [...] impact [...] on the labor supply of transfer recipients. It also requires information on the value of the additional income received by program beneficiaries as well as the change in the amount of leisure that they consume. Nevertheless, there have been only a few studies on its impact on income (Hoynes and Patel, 2018) and welfare, or the long-term impact over the life cycle (Athreya et al., 2014; Blundell et al., 2016). This dissertation mainly aims to fill this gap by expanding our understanding of the EITCs impacts in these dimensions. Specifically, I develop a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model in the tradition of Huggett (1993) and Aiyagari (1994), one of the workhorse models in modern macroeconomics, to answer the following questions: How are the EITCs long-term impacts over the life cycle affected by the public pension system in terms of (i) labor supply and lifetime income and (ii) savings, consumption, and welfare? In addition, through the lens of the sophisticated model, I investigate (iii) why some EITC expansions in Korea were less effective in inducing labor market participation as found in the empirical literature (Park and Lee, 2018). In the first and second chapters of the dissertation, I explore the role of the public pension tax-benefit link in the benefits of the EITC program. In the public pension systems of many countries, contributions before retirement and benefits after retirement are linked. In other words, an increase in lifetime earnings and pension contributions through more labor supply during the working age increases pension benefits after retirement. Therefore, the labor supply response to the EITC during the working age of the life cycle increases pension income in retirement through the tax-benefit link of public pensions. This mechanism amplifies the income-increasing effect of the EITC by raising pension income. Moreover, salience literature on public pensions (Liebman and Luttmer, 2015) suggests that informational intervention about the dynamic incentive for work through the tax-benefit link could intensify the labor supply and earnings responses to the EITC. This channel also magnifies the EITCs welfare consequence by enabling the target household to reduce retirement savings and enjoy more consumption. I quantitatively analyze the EITCs long-term impacts on income and welfare over the life cycle and highlight the role of the pension tax-benefit link. To this end, I construct a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model with consumption-savings and extensive margin labor supply choices, as well as a public pension system. The model is calibrated to the Korean economy running a sizable EITC program. I examine the EITCs effect on newborn individuals who will face unfavorable labor productivity histories over their lives, making their lifetime income low, to focus on the direct incentive effect of the program. By comparing the impacts of the EITC with versus without the dynamic labor supply return through the pension tax-benefit link, I find that the role of the tax-benefit link is quantitatively significant. For newborns with low lifetime income, the pension tax-benefit link explains more than half (a quarter) of the increase in lifetime income (welfare) due to the EITC. In the last chapter, I provide a possible mechanism for the empirical result of Park and Lee (2018) through the lens of the life-cycle model. One of the main findings of Park and Lee (2018) is that the estimated labor supply response to the EITC becomes substantially small and insignificant if 2014--2016 is included in the sample periods. One of the unique features of the EITC expansions in Korea is that there was an age limit for single households, which was gradually relaxed over time. Specifically, singles above 60 became eligible for the EITC in 2013, those above 50 in 2015, those above 40 in 2016, and so on. These observations suggest that the heterogeneous labor supply response by age could be the driving force behind the empirical result. Consistent with this conjecture, I find that the model implies substantially higher labor supply elasticity in the 60s than in middle age. The differential labor supply elasticity by age comes from heterogeneity in labor productivity and wealth by age. In the 40s, an EITC-eligible low income individual is likely to already be in the labor market even without the EITC because it is his prime age and he needs to accumulate more wealth against retirement. This means there is little room for the EITC to induce labor supply. For those nearing retirement, in contrast, their average labor productivity tends to be lower than at prime age, and they already have enough wealth to finance retirement consumption. This makes them closer to the participation margin, which implies more room for the EITC to induce labor market participation. The result suggests that we need more empirical work on for whom the EITC is effective in inducing labor supply, not just the estimates for the average effect.1 The Earned Income Tax Credit and the Tax-benefit Link of Public Pensions: Effects on Labor Supply and Income 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Model 7 1.2.1 EITC 8 1.2.2 Public pension 11 1.2.3 Income 12 1.2.4 Individuals problem 13 1.3 Calibration 16 1.3.1 Demographics and preferences 16 1.3.2 Endowments 16 1.3.3 Tax and transfer 18 1.3.4 Public pension 20 1.3.5 Model fit 21 1.4 Quantitative analysis 25 1.4.1 Who is mainly affected? 26 1.4.2 Results with both static and dynamic returns 29 1.4.3 Role of dynamic return through the pension tax-benefit link 35 1.5 Conclusion 40 2 The Earned Income Tax Credit and the Tax-benefit Link of Public Pensions: Effects on Savings, Consumption, and Welfare 42 2.1 Introduction 42 2.2 Effects on consumption and savings 43 2.2.1 Results with the static return only 45 2.2.2 Role of the dynamic return 46 2.2.3 Implication for the labor supply response 50 2.3 Effects on welfare 53 2.4 Discussion and conclusion 54 2.4.1 No knowledge in reality? 55 2.4.2 Design of pension systems 55 2.4.3 Old age labor supply 56 2.4.4 Part-time choice 57 2.4.5 General equilibrium 57 2.4.6 Avenues for future research 58 3 Why were some EITC expansions in Korea less effective in inducing labor supply? Role of heterogeneous labor supply elasticity by age 59 3.1 Introduction 59 3.2 The EITC in Korea and literature review 60 3.2.1 Institutional background 60 3.2.2 Literature 61 3.3 The analysis using the life-cycle model 63 3.3.1 Regression analysis 64 3.3.2 Inspecting the mechanism 66 3.4 Conclusion 69 Reference 70 Appendix 76 A Estimations 76 A.1 Labor income tax progressivity 76 A.2 Welfare benefits to the non-employed 77 B Additional features of the model 77 B.1 Firms 79 B.2 Government budgets 80 B.3 Definition of equilibrium 81 C Pension benefit formula 81 국문초록 82박

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