3,479 research outputs found

    Emotions, moods and hyperreality: social media and the stock market during the first phase of COVID-19 pandemic

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    Purpose: This paper aims to expand the emerging literature on COVID-19 and the financial markets by searching for a relationship between the uncertainty of the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic experienced through social media and the extreme volatility of the Italian stock market. Design/methodology/approach: The authors analyze the relationship between social media and stock market trends during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic through the lens of social theory and Baudrillard's simulacra and hyperreality theory. The authors conducted the data analysis in two phases: the emotional and Granger correlation analysis by using the KPI6 software to analyze 3,275,588 tweets for the predominant emotion on each day and observe its relationship with the stock market. Findings: The research results show a significant Granger causality relation between tweets on a particular day and the closing price of the FTSE MIB during the first phase of the COVID-19 epidemic. The results highlight a strong relationship between social media hyperreality and the real world. The study confirms the role of social media in predicting stock market volatility. Research limitations/implications: The findings have theoretical and practical implications as they reveal the relevance of social media in our society and its relationship with businesses and economies. In an emergency, social media, as an expression of users' feelings and emotions, can generate a state of hyperreality that is strong correlated with reality. Since social media allows users to publish and share messages without any filter and mediation, the hyperreality generated is affected by highly subjective elements. Originality/value: This research is different from the previous ones on the same topic because unlike previous studies, conducted under normal or simulated scenarios, this study is focused on the first phase of an unpredictable and unforeseen emergency event: the COVID-19 pandemic. This research adopts a multidisciplinary approach and integrates previous studies on the economic and financial effects generated by social media by applying well-known theories to a new and unexplored context. The study reveals the significant impact generated by social media on stock markets during a global pandemic

    Twitter mood predicts the stock market

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    Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i.e., can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time. We analyze the text content of daily Twitter feeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder that measures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of Mood States (GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital, Kind, and Happy). We cross-validate the resulting mood time series by comparing their ability to detect the public's response to the presidential election and Thanksgiving day in 2008. A Granger causality analysis and a Self-Organizing Fuzzy Neural Network are then used to investigate the hypothesis that public mood states, as measured by the OpinionFinder and GPOMS mood time series, are predictive of changes in DJIA closing values. Our results indicate that the accuracy of DJIA predictions can be significantly improved by the inclusion of specific public mood dimensions but not others. We find an accuracy of 87.6% in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA and a reduction of the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6%

    How do Securities Laws Influence Affect, Happiness, & Trust?

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    This Article advocates that securities regulators promulgate rules based upon taking into consideration their impacts upon investors\u27 and others\u27 affect, happiness, and trust. Examples of these impacts are consumer optimism, financial stress, anxiety over how thoroughly securities regulators deliberate over proposed rules, investor confidence in securities disclosures, market exuberance, social moods, and subjective well-being. These variables affect and are affected by traditional financial variables, such as consumer debt, expenditures, and wealth; corporate investment; initial public offerings; and securities market demand, liquidity, prices, supply, and volume. This Article proposes that securities regulators can and should evaluate rules based upon measures of affect, happiness, and trust in addition to standard observable financial variables. This Article concludes that the organic statutes of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission are indeterminate despite mandating that federal securities laws consider efficiency among other goals. This Article illustrates analysis of affective impacts of these financial regulatory policies: mandatory securities disclosures; gun-jumping rules for publicly registered offerings; financial education or literacy campaigns; statutory or judicial default rules and menus; and continual reassessment and revision of rules. These regulatory policies impact and are impacted by investors\u27 and other people\u27s affect, happiness, and trust. Thus, securities regulators can and should evaluate such affective impacts to design effective legal policy

    Using Twitter to Predict the Stock Market - Where is the Mood Effect?

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    Behavioral finance researchers have shown that the stock market can be driven by emotions of market participants. In a number of recent studies mood levels have been extracted from Social Media applications in order to predict stock returns. The paper tries to replicate these findings by measuring the mood states on Twitter. The sample consists of roughly 100 million tweets that were published in Germany between January, 2011 and November, 2013. In a first analysis, a significant relationship between aggregate Twitter mood states and the stock market is not found. However, further analyses also consider mood contagion by integrating the number of Twitter followers into the analysis. The results show that it is necessary to take into account the spread of mood states among Internet users. Based on the results in the training period, a trading strategy for the German stock market is created. The portfolio increases by up to 36 % within a six-month period after the consideration of transaction costs

    You are What You Say: The Influence of Company Tweets on Its Stock Performance

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    This paper investigates the relationship between Twitter metrics and stock price performance of a company. The objective of this research is to contribute to the area of research that seeks to uncover the business value of social media platforms. Building on prior research, this paper identifies two categories of metrics that have been used to examine the relationship between Twitter metrics and stock performance of a company, namely traffic and motivation. While traffic is measured as volume of tweets, motivation is measured from two perspectives; polarity (positive, neutral, and negative) and emotion (positive emotion and negative emotion). Unstructured data from Twitter and Yahoo finance Website about Amazon was gathered to test the study hypothesis. A combination of machine learning techniques for text analytics and hierarchical regression analysis was used to analyze the data. Results indicate that emotional motivation expressed in tweets sent out by a company positively influences the company’s stock performance

    Predicting user behavior using data profiling and hidden Markov model

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    Mental health disorders affect many aspects of patient’s lives, including emotions, cognition, and especially behaviors. E-health technology helps to collect information wealth in a non-invasive manner, which represents a promising opportunity to construct health behavior markers. Combining such user behavior data can provide a more comprehensive and contextual view than questionnaire data. Due to behavioral data, we can train machine learning models to understand the data pattern and also use prediction algorithms to know the next state of a person’s behavior. The remaining challenges for this issue are how to apply mathematical formulations to textual datasets and find metadata that aids to identify the person’s life pattern and also predict the next state of his comportment. The main idea of this work is to use a hidden Markov model (HMM) to predict user behavior from social media applications by analyzing and detecting states and symbols from the user behavior dataset. To achieve this goal, we need to analyze and detect the states and symbols from the user behavior dataset, then convert the textual data to mathematical and numerical matrices. Finally, apply the HMM model to predict the hidden user behavior states. We tested our program and identified that the log-likelihood was higher and better when the model fits the data. In any case, the results of the study indicated that the program was suitable for the purpose and yielded valuable data

    SmartEx: a case study on user profiling and adaptation in exhibition booths

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    An investigation into user profiling and adaptation with exhibition booth as a case study is reported. First a review of the field of exhibitions and trade fairs and a summary introduction to adaptation and profiling are given. We then introduce three criteria for the evaluation of exhibition booth: effectiveness, efficiency and affect. Effectiveness is related the amount of information collected, efficiency is a measurement of the time taken to collect the information, and affect is the perception of the experience and the mood booth visitors have during and after their visit. We have selected these criteria to assess adaptive and profiled exhibition booths, we call smart exhibition (SmartEx). The assessment is performed with an experiment with three test conditions (non-profiled/non adaptive, profiled/non-adaptive and profiled adaptive presentations). Results of the experiment are presented along discussion. While there is significant improvements of effectiveness and efficiency between the two-first test conditions, the improvement is not significant for the last test condition, for reasons explained. As for the affect, the results show that it has an under-estimated importance in people minds and that it should be addressed more carefully
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