Resilience, collapse and reorganization of a rangeland socio-ecological system in South Africa

Communal rangelands in semi-arid areas are complex socio-ecological systems (SES). Their complexity arises from non-linear feedbacks between the social- and the ecosystem. To understand the social system requires tackling institutional issues associated with common pool resource governance. Moreover, assessing ecosystem dynamics commands to acknowledge high climatic variability in semi-arid areas. This thesis quantifies the dynamics of a communal livestock production SES in a former homeland of South Africa using a SES modelling approach. Here, a social agent based model is combined with a biomass growth model of the rangeland. The coupling of both models is achieved by full integration on software (Java) level. Accordingly, the resulting model does account for ecological complexity. The latter constitutes a contribution to the methodological advancement of bio-economic modelling insofar as bio-economic models strongly simplify ecological processes. The SES model is specified based on primary data from a case study. On a conceptual level, the three main chapters in this thesis investigate aspects of SES resilience, collapse and reorganization. Specifically, chapter two assesses social welfare impacts from reorganizing resource use by the adjustment of stocking rates and alterations of spatio-temporal grazing patterns. Chapter 3 explores the effect of a local norm on SES dynamics with a focus on collapse vs. stability. Finally, chapter 4 quantifies the resilience on multiple scales of the SES towards droughts, a loss of social embededdness and a significant change in subsidization. We found that the adjustment of stocking rates yields higher social benefits compared to the (re)-introduction of rotational grazing in a system assumed to be void of institutional arrangements. In a second step, we identified the existence of a local norm indirectly impacting resource use by endogenous stocking rate adjustments. The existence of the informal institution significantly contributes to the long-term stability of the SES by reducing the chance for collapse. The emergence of norm-following behaviour is fostered by climatic variability. The SES was resilient towards droughts and a change in subsidization. It was however not resilient towards a loss in social embededdness. At another level, only the introduction of a basic income grant was able to stop a process of structural change eroding household resilience. The introduction of a basic income grant enabled poorer households to successfully compete with richer ones without jeopardizing the resilience of the coupled system

Computational Conflict Research

This open access book brings together a set of original studies that use cutting-edge computational methods to investigate conflict at various geographic scales and degrees of intensity and violence. Methodologically, this book covers a variety of computational approaches from text mining and machine learning to agent-based modelling and social network analysis. Empirical cases range from migration policy framing in North America and street protests in Iran to violence against civilians in Congo and food riots world-wide. Supplementary materials in the book include a comprehensive list of the datasets on conflict and dissent, as well as resources to online repositories where the annotated code and data of individual chapters can be found and where (agent-based) models can be re-produced and altered. These materials are a valuable resource for those wishing to retrace and learn from the analyses described in this volume and adapt and apply them to their own research interests. By bringing together novel research through an international team of scholars from a range of disciplines, Computational Conflict Research pioneers and maps this emerging field. The book will appeal to students, scholars, and anyone interested in the prospects of using computational social sciences to advance our understanding of conflict dynamics

The implementation of energy sharing using a system of systems approach

There is an increasing demand for renewable energy and consumers need more procurement options to meet their needs. Energy sharing provides a peer-to-peer (P2P) marketplace where prosumer electricity is redistributed to fellow energy-sharing community participants. This redistribution of prosumer electricity provides consumers with additional electricity suppliers, while also decreasing the load on the utility company. Though significant progress has been made regarding research and implementation of energy sharing, there is still room for growth when evaluating energy-sharing communities and defining appropriate community coordination based on end-user needs. The first contribution in this work identified nine characteristics of energy-sharing communities as a decentralized complex adaptive system of systems (DCASoS). Considering each characteristic before determining community coordination is vital to ensure ample participation within the energy-sharing community. The second contribution was the exploration of a two-stage stochastic programming model as an alternative to the classic energy distribution business model. The third contribution compares three behavioral theories to identify the best fitting model to predict interest in participating in an energysharing community. This research provides companies with foundational knowledge to develop an energy-sharing community that both fulfills end-user satisfaction and increases robustness of electricity distribution business models --Abstract, page iv

Análisis de datos etnográficos, antropológicos y arqueológicos: una aproximación desde las humanidades digitales y los sistemas complejos

La llegada de las Ciencias de la Computación, el Big Data, el Análisis de Datos, el Aprendizaje Automático y la Minería de Datos ha modificado la manera en que se hace ciencia en todos los campos científicos, dando lugar, a su vez, a la aparición de nuevas disciplinas tales como la Mecánica Computacional, la Bioinformática, la Ingeniería de la Salud, las Ciencias Sociales Computacionales, la Economía Computacional, la Arqueología Computacional y las Humanidades Digitales –entre otras. Cabe destacar que todas estas nuevas disciplinas son todavía muy jóvenes y están en continuo crecimiento, por lo que contribuir a su avance y consolidación tiene un gran valor científico. En esta tesis doctoral contribuimos al desarrollo de una nueva línea de investigación dedicada al uso de modelos formales, métodos analíticos y enfoques computacionales para el estudio de las sociedades humanas tanto actuales como del pasado.El Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación • Proyecto SimulPast – “Transiciones sociales y ambientales: simulando el pasado para entender el comportamiento humano” (CSD2010-00034 CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010). • Proyecto CULM – “Modelado del cultivo en la prehistoria” (HAR2016-77672-P). • Red de Excelencia SimPastNet – “Simular el pasado para entender el comportamiento humano” (HAR2017-90883-REDC). • Red de Excelencia SocioComplex – “Sistemas Complejos Socio-Tecnológicos” (RED2018-102518-T). La Consejería de Educación de la Junta de Castilla y León • Subvención a la línea de investigación “Entendiendo el comportamiento humano, una aproximación desde los sistemas complejos y las humanidades digitales” dentro del programa de apoyo a los grupos de investigación reconocidos (GIR) de las universidades públicas de Castilla y León (BDNS 425389

A game theory model to explore the role of cooperation and diversity in community food security: the case of Southern Malawi

The Sustainable Development Goals aim at ending food insecurity by 2030. Therefore, civil society needs to understand the inherent complexities of both socio-economic and ecological dynamics and their interdependencies. In particular, the behavioural dynamics that underpin human agents are crucial in driving the final outcomes in terms of community food security and require further attention. Using household behaviour within a rural village of Southern Malawi as an example, we describe a game theory model representing cropping strategies: (1) cooperation, as driven by other-regarding preferences, and (2) conformation, the tendency to converge to similar crop planting choices as opposed to differentiation (and thus crop diversity). We find that the latter plays a crucial role in driving the system towards successful strategies: how individuals relate to social norms has greater effect. Cooperation is only necessary for community success when the community converges on crop planting choices. On the contrary, differentiation, the affirmation of the individual unique identity, can succeed with or without cooperation. We further elaborate on the idea that community level sustainability can be reached through different pathways, which might require food exchange mechanisms within and beyond the system boundaries. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.This research is supported by the Basque Government through the BERC 2018-2021 program and by the Ikertzaile Doktoreentzako Hobekuntzarako doktoretza-ondoko Programa and by Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO through BC3 María de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714 and by the Leverhulme TrustResearch Fellowship “CREATE: the network components of creativity and success. This work was also inspired and partially funded by the ASSETS (Attaining Sustainable Services from Ecosystems) project (NERC/ESPA NE-J002267-1)

Modelling and Simulation of Human-Environment Interactions

Computational models provide intelligent environmental decision support systems to understand how human decisions are shaped by, and contribute to changes in, the environment. These models provide essential tools to tackle the important issues raised by climate change, including migrations and conflicts due to resource scarcity (e.g., water resources), while accounting for the necessity of co-managing ecosystems across a population of stakeholders with diverse goals. Such socio-environmental systems are characterized by their complexity, which is reflected by an abundance of open questions. This book explores several of these open questions, based on the contributions from over 50 authors. While several books account for methodological developments in modeling socio-environmental systems, our book is unique in combining case studies, methodological innovations, and a holistic approach to training the next generation of modelers. One chapter covers the ontological, epistemological, and ethical issues raised at the intersection of sustainability research and social simulation. In another chapter, we show that the benefits of simulations are not limited to managing complex eco-systems, as they can also serve an educational mission in teaching essential rules and thus improve systems thinking competencies in the broader population

How to manage people who think. A structural approach.

This is a paper about creativity, diversity and other often used buzzwords. It is also a paper about how to manage people who think. Today we live in a world in which computers and mobile phones have become the key artifacts. Nokia´s slogan ”connecting people” expresses in a brilliant way what it is all about. When we connect people information is transfered and new knowledge hopefully created. And innovations, ideas and individuals are central for everything that takes place. We are all supposed to be flexible, exercising our knowledge in a setting characterized by diversity. This setting is also characterized by paradoxes that I will write more about further down. But transformations such as the globalization and implementing of new information technology race crucial questions about how to deal with a changing economic landscape and new mindsets and changing attitudes. The pages that follow is based on extensive reading of the literature and participating in many conferences and work-shops. In addition to this I have interviewed managers and employees at Electrolux, Ericsson, TeliaSonera and The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise. I have asked people in the above mentioned organizations how they react to concepts such as the knowledge society and the practice of managing knowledge, creativity, diversity and flexibility. This paper is written with a Scandinavian perspective. It is also written with a social constructionist perspective. The theoretical framework includes theories about knowledge management, structuration theory and cognitive theories. The findings are based on interpretative research and I have systematically reflected over the material I have collected. I direct myself towards people in business who think and worry about the future. The purpose is to inspire to further discussions about these very important matters.Knowledge management; structuration theory; knowledge society; globalization; creativity; diversity; flexibility.