Market Prices as Indicators of Political Events Evidence from the Experimental Market on the Czech Republic Parliamentary Election in 2002

According to efficient markets theory, the stock price on a competitive market is the best estimate of the stock’s present value. This is the basic assumption for predictions using experimental markets. The first part of the paper describes the features of such an experimental market, discusses shortly its advantages in providing predictions as compared to traditional opinion polls and identifies some assumptions that can influence its efficiency and predictive accuracy. The second part of the paper is then devoted to the results of the first experimental market organized in the Czech Republic, the political stock market on the Czech parliamentary elections into the Chamber of Deputies in June 2002.Experimental economics; political stock markets; predictions

Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during Election Day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on Election Day 2004, and then during the vote count, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar Republican-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican President raises equity valuations by 2 3 percent, and that since Reagan, Republican Presidents have tended to raise bond yields.

Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations on November 2 and 3 in 2004, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates, and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar Republican-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2-3 percent, and that since Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields.Federal government ; Political science ; Economic policy

Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.

Five open questions about prediction markets

Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decisionmaking and risk management--in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.Forecasting ; Financial markets ; Econometric models

Continuous Market Engineering - Focusing Agent Behavior, Interfaces, and Auxiliary Services

Electronic markets spread out amongst business entities as well as private individuals. Albeit numerous approaches on developing electronic markets exist, a unified approach targeting market development, redesign, and refinement has been lacking. This thesis studies the potential of continuously improving electronic markets. Thereby, the experiments? design focuses on Agent Behavior, Interfaces, and Auxiliary Services and thus unveils the potential of continuously improving electronic markets

Arbitrage in Political Prediction Markets

Online prediction markets are a powerful tool for aggregating information and show promise as predictive tools for uncertain outcomes, from sporting events to election results. However, these markets only serve as effective prediction tools so long as the market pricing remains efficient. We analyze the potential arbitrage profits derived from such mispricings in two leading American political prediction markets, PredictIt (for the 2016 and 2020 elections) and the Iowa Electronic Markets (for the 2016 election), to quantify the degree of mispricing and to show how market design can contribute to price distortion. We show that contracts hosted by PredictIt, compared to the IEM, are chronically mispriced, with large arbitrage profits in the 2016 election markets and non-negligible profits for the 2020 markets. We discuss the role of profit fees and contract limits, the primary differences between the PredictIt and IEM, in distorting pricing on PredictIt by limiting the ability of traders to capture arbitrage profits. Additionally, we examine the association between arbitrage and margin-linking, increased liquidity, and the number of unique contracts PredictIt's markets. This research provides cautionary evidence of potential inefficiencies in prediction markets with the intention of improving market implementation and enhancing market predictiveness

Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets

While there are various techniques of inflation forecasting in use, none of them has proved to deliver consistently more accurate forecasts than the others. That is why most users of inflation forecasts monitor a variety of inflation indicators and forecasts and check them for consistency. This paper aims at contributing to an extension of themethods in use. We propose to conduct experimental inflation forecasting markets in order to uncover market participants' inflation expectations. While the markets directly deliver density forecasts of inflation they also allow to construct mean forecasts and a measure of forecast uncertainty. We also present evidence from a number of pilot markets underlining that the proposed method might enrich the arsenal of existing forecastingtechniques.Inflation forecast, field experiments, experimental stock markets.

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2009.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 105-106).Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction Markets for business decision-making. We configured a Prediction Market to gather primary data, sent out surveys to gauge participant views and conducted in-depth interviews to explain trader behavior. Our research was conducted with 169 employees from General Mills who participated in Prediction Markets that lasted from two to ten weeks. Our research indicates that short term forecasting Prediction Markets are no more accurate than conventional forecasting methods. It also presents and addresses three interesting contradictions. First, the Sales Organization won the majority of the Prediction Markets, yet the overall performance of Sales as a group was worse than that of other groups. Second, Prediction Markets were able to gain access to more information than General Mills' current process, yet the impact on forecast accuracy was not significant. Third, with a MAPE of 11% for promotional Prediction Markets, it would seem that promotional demand was well understood up-front, yet when we dissected the promotional forecasts we discovered that participants changed their minds over time degrading overall forecast accuracy. We believe that we have extended the current body of work on Prediction Markets in ways that will increase the utilization in business environments.by Kai Trepte and Rajaram Narayanaswamy.M.Eng.in Logistic