Knowledge dependencies in fuzzy information systems evaluation

Experience and research within the field of Information Systems Evaluation (ISE), has traditionally centered on providing tools and techniques for investment justification and appraisal, based upon explicit knowledge which encodes financial and other direct situational factors (such as accounting, costing and risk metrics). However, such approaches tend not to include additional causal interdependencies that are based upon tacit knowledge and are inherent within such a decision-making task. The authors show the results of applying a cognitive mapping approach, in the guise of a Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) simulation, i.e. Fuzzy Information Systems Evaluation (F-ISE), in order to highlight the usefulness of applying such a technique. The authors highlight those contingent and necessary knowledge dependencies, in an exploratory sense, which relate to the investment appraisal decision-making task, in terms of the interplay between tacit and explicit knowledge, in this regard

Potential applications of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare: lessons learned from aerospace and military

The Aerospace and Military areas are to do with complex missions and situations. Modelling and Simulation (M&S) has been applied in many areas of defence ranging from space sciences, satellite engineering to multi-warfare (air warfare, undersea warfare), air & missile defence, acquisition, tactical military trainings & exercises, national security analysis and strategic decision making & planning, etc. The application of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare would improve the provision of healthcare services; however, their application has been much relatively feeble in the healthcare sector as compared to the defence sector. This paper presents results from a systematic literature survey on applications of modelling simulation techniques in the Aerospace & Military. The knowledge gained or lessons learned from the survey were finally used to analyze the potential applications of the simulation modelling techniques to the healthcare sector. Results show that in the defence sector, Distributed Simulation has now become a widely adopted technique. However, System Dynamics (SD) and Discrete Event Simulation (DSE) have also gained relative attention. From this survey it becomes clear that various simulation modelling techniques are useful for specific purposes and have potential applications in the healthcare sector

Exploring fuzzy cognitive mapping for IS evaluation: A research note

Existing IS Evaluation (ISE) techniques tend to focus on modeling individuals, teams, organization, or systems, in relation to process and environmental boundaries. Whilst such approaches are noteworthy and of merit, they do not necessarily provide insights into those causal interdependencies that are inherent within decision-making task. As has been noted by the extant literature in the field, the ISE task is dependent upon many factors – the resulting outputs of which may be tangible or intangible. The implicit level of uncertainty associated with modeling such decision-making tasks and behaviors, are therefore difficult to comprehend and impart via wholly Quantitative and / or Qualitative analyses. The authors therefore present and propose supporting and on-going research into the application of Fuzzy Logic, in the guise of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) simulations, as a means to model tangible/intangible aspects of the ISE decision-making task. Such a Fuzzy Information Systems Evaluation (F-ISE) is shown via the application of the FCM technique, in terms of three models of investment appraisal that are aligned to an ISE task within a UK manufacturing organization. In doing so, it is anticipated that such a technique may be a useful addition to the plethora of ISE techniques available to both researcher and practitioner alike

Distributed situation awareness in dynamic systems: Theoretical development and application of an ergonomics methodology

The purpose of this paper is to propose foundations for a theory of situation awareness based on the analysis of interactions between agents (i.e., both human and non-human) in subsystems. This approach may help promote a better understanding of technology-mediated interaction in systems, as well as helping in the formulation of hypotheses and predictions concerning distributed situation awareness. It is proposed that agents within a system each hold their own situation awareness which may be very different from (although compatible with) other agents. It is argued that we should not always hope for, or indeed want, sharing of this awareness, as different system agents have different purposes. This view marks situation awareness as a 1 dynamic and collaborative process that binds agents together on tasks on a moment-by-moment basis. Implications of this viewpoint for development of a new theory of, and accompanying methodology for, distributed situation awareness are offered

A Multi-Objective Approach to Tactical Maneuvering Within Real Time Strategy Games

The real time strategy (RTS) environment is a strong platform for simulating complex tactical problems. The overall research goal is to develop artificial intelligence (AI) RTS planning agents for military critical decision making education. These agents should have the ability to perform at an expert level as well as to assess a players critical decision-making ability or skill-level. The nature of the time sensitivity within the RTS environment creates very complex situations. Each situation must be analyzed and orders must be given to each tactical unit before the scenario on the battlefield changes and makes the decisions no longer relevant. This particular research effort of RTS AI development focuses on constructing a unique approach for tactical unit positioning within an RTS environment. By utilizing multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) for finding an \optimal positioning solution, an AI agent can quickly determine an effective unit positioning solution with a fast, rapid response. The development of such an RTS AI agent goes through three distinctive phases. The first of which is mathematically describing the problem space of the tactical positioning of units within a combat scenario. Such a definition allows for the development of a generic MOEA search algorithm that is applicable to nearly every scenario. The next major phase requires the development and integration of this algorithm into the Air Force Institute of Technology RTS AI agent. Finally, the last phase involves experimenting with the positioning agent in order to determine the effectiveness and efficiency when placed against various other tactical options. Experimental results validate that controlling the position of the units within a tactical situation is an effective alternative for an RTS AI agent to win a battle

Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Planning the Size and Organization of KLM's Aircraft Maintenance Personnel

Develops a decision support system (DSS) for the aircraft maintenance department of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines at Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam, Netherlands. Tasks of the department; Support provided by the DSS to management; Analyzing several capacity planning problems related to the size and the organization of the workforce

The Endowment Challenge

The financial crisis of 2008 is nearly five years behind us, yet its impact on nonprofit organizations persists. The bull market that began in the early 1980s delivered historically strong returns for most long-term investment portfolios through 2008, but the factors that contributed to that performance may have run their course. Equity returns weakened over the past decade, and despite better results from bonds, overall portfolio returns have declined. Looking ahead, inflation is likely to remain low, but investment returns are also expected to be lower for the next few market cycles within more volatile markets. This will make it difficult for nonprofits to rebound from portfolio losses suffered in the 2008 downturn. Nonprofits face a "New Reality" of lower returns, higher volatility and increased scrutiny from boards and regulators. This paper discusses the challenges and opportunities nonprofit organizations face in a changing market environment