Predictive Analytics In Higher Education: Five Guiding Practices for Ethical Use

Without ethical practices, student data could be used to curtail academic success rather than help ensure it. For example, without a clear plan in place, an institution could use predictive analytics to justify using fewer resources to recruit low-income students because their chances of enrolling are less sure than for more affluent prospective students. In this report, New America lays out important questions to consider as administrators formulate how to use predictive analytics ethically

Discriminative conditional restricted Boltzmann machine for discrete choice and latent variable modelling

Conventional methods of estimating latent behaviour generally use attitudinal questions which are subjective and these survey questions may not always be available. We hypothesize that an alternative approach can be used for latent variable estimation through an undirected graphical models. For instance, non-parametric artificial neural networks. In this study, we explore the use of generative non-parametric modelling methods to estimate latent variables from prior choice distribution without the conventional use of measurement indicators. A restricted Boltzmann machine is used to represent latent behaviour factors by analyzing the relationship information between the observed choices and explanatory variables. The algorithm is adapted for latent behaviour analysis in discrete choice scenario and we use a graphical approach to evaluate and understand the semantic meaning from estimated parameter vector values. We illustrate our methodology on a financial instrument choice dataset and perform statistical analysis on parameter sensitivity and stability. Our findings show that through non-parametric statistical tests, we can extract useful latent information on the behaviour of latent constructs through machine learning methods and present strong and significant influence on the choice process. Furthermore, our modelling framework shows robustness in input variability through sampling and validation

I Know Why You Went to the Clinic: Risks and Realization of HTTPS Traffic Analysis

Revelations of large scale electronic surveillance and data mining by governments and corporations have fueled increased adoption of HTTPS. We present a traffic analysis attack against over 6000 webpages spanning the HTTPS deployments of 10 widely used, industry-leading websites in areas such as healthcare, finance, legal services and streaming video. Our attack identifies individual pages in the same website with 89% accuracy, exposing personal details including medical conditions, financial and legal affairs and sexual orientation. We examine evaluation methodology and reveal accuracy variations as large as 18% caused by assumptions affecting caching and cookies. We present a novel defense reducing attack accuracy to 27% with a 9% traffic increase, and demonstrate significantly increased effectiveness of prior defenses in our evaluation context, inclusive of enabled caching, user-specific cookies and pages within the same website

Topic-dependent sentiment analysis of financial blogs

While most work in sentiment analysis in the financial domain has focused on the use of content from traditional finance news, in this work we concentrate on more subjective sources of information, blogs. We aim to automatically determine the sentiment of financial bloggers towards companies and their stocks. To do this we develop a corpus of financial blogs, annotated with polarity of sentiment with respect to a number of companies. We conduct an analysis of the annotated corpus, from which we show there is a significant level of topic shift within this collection, and also illustrate the difficulty that human annotators have when annotating certain sentiment categories. To deal with the problem of topic shift within blog articles, we propose text extraction techniques to create topic-specific sub-documents, which we use to train a sentiment classifier. We show that such approaches provide a substantial improvement over full documentclassification and that word-based approaches perform better than sentence-based or paragraph-based approaches

China’s Local Government Debt and Economic Growth

This paper explores the impact of China’s local government debt on economic growth. This analysis, based on a panel of 31 provinces over 14 years, takes into account a broad range of economic growth determinants as well as various estimation issues including heteroskedascity and omitted variable. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between China’s local government debt and economic growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.27 percentage points per year