Remote sensing and machine learning for prediction of wheat growth in precision agriculture applications

This thesis focuses on remote sensing and machine learning for prediction of wheat growth in precision agriculture applications. Agriculture is the primary productive force, which plays an important role in human activities. Wheat, as one of the essential sources of food, is also a widely planted crop. The impact of weather and climate and some other uncertain factors on wheat production is crucial. Therefore, it is necessary to use reliable and statistically reasonable models for crop growth and yield prediction based on vegetation index variables and other factors, so as to obtain reliable prediction for efficient production. Applying certain artificial intelligence algorithms to the precision agriculture can significantly improve the efficiency of traditional agriculture in crop planting and reduce the consumption of human and natural resources. Remote sensing can objectively, accurately and timely provide a large amount of information for ecological environment and crop growth in agriculture applications. By combining the image and spectral data obtained by remote sensing technology with machine learning, information about wheat growth, yield and insect pests can be learned in time. This thesis focuses on its applications in agriculture, particularly using effective prediction models such as the back propagation neural network and some optimisation algorithms for predicting wheat growth, yield and aphid. The work presented in this thesis address the issues of wheat growth prediction, yield assessment and aphid validation by model building and machine learning algorithm optimisation by means of remote sensing data. Specifically, the following objectives are defined: 1. Analyse multiple vegetation indexes based on the TM 1-4 band data of Landsat satellite and use regression algorithms to train the models and predict wheat growth; 2. Analyse and compare multiple vegetation indexes models by means of spectral data and use regression algorithms to predict wheat yield; 3. Combine spectral vegetation indexes and multiple regression algorithms to predict wheat aphid; 4. Use accurate evaluation criteria for validating the efficacy of the various algorithms. In this thesis, the remote sensing data from the satellite has been applied instead of the airborne-based remote sensing data. Based on the TM 1-4 band image data of Landsat satellite, multiple vegetation indexes were used as the input of regression algorithms. After that, four kinds of regression algorithms such as the multiple linear regression (MR) algorithm, back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm were used to train the model and predict the LAI and SPAD. The prediction results of each algorithm were compared with the ground truth information collected by hand held instruments on the ground. The relationship between wheat yield and spectral data has been studied. Based on the BPNN algorithm, four kinds of models such as visible hyperspectral index (VHI) model, hyperspectral vegetation index (HVI) model, difference hyperspectral index (DHI) model and normalized hyperspectral index (NHI) model have been utilized to predict wheat yield. For the optimal NHI model, three regression algorithms such as back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm, were compared to predict wheat yield, and RMSE and R-square of the three algorithms were compared and analysed. Finally, the relationship between wheat aphid and spectral data has been investigated. Nine vegetation indexes related to aphid have been estimated from spectral data as the input of regression algorithms. Five kinds of regression algorithms such as back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm, particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm, ant colony (ACO) optimisation algorithm optimised BPNN algorithm and cuckoo search (CS) optimised BPNN algorithm have been implemented to predict wheat aphid, which was validated with the ground truth information measured by hand-held instruments on the ground. The prediction results of each algorithm have been analysed. The major original contributions of this thesis are as follows: 1. A variety of optimisation algorithms are used to improve the regression analysis of the BPNN algorithm, so that the prediction results of each model for wheat growth, yield and aphid are more accurate. 2. The spectral characteristics of winter wheat canopy have been analysed. The correlation between the absorption band and the associated physical and chemical properties of crops, specially the red edge slope, with the crop yield and wheat aphid damage is established. 3. Adjusted MSE and un-centered R-square, as accurate evaluation criteria for practical applications, are used to compare the prediction results of the models under different dimensions of the observed data. 4. Improve algorithm training by using the cross-validation method to obtain reliable and stable models for the prediction of wheat growth, yield, and aphid. Through repeated cross-validation, a better model can be obtained in the last. Key word：Precision agriculture; BP network, wheat growth assessment; wheat yield prediction, wheat aphid validationThis thesis focuses on remote sensing and machine learning for prediction of wheat growth in precision agriculture applications. Agriculture is the primary productive force, which plays an important role in human activities. Wheat, as one of the essential sources of food, is also a widely planted crop. The impact of weather and climate and some other uncertain factors on wheat production is crucial. Therefore, it is necessary to use reliable and statistically reasonable models for crop growth and yield prediction based on vegetation index variables and other factors, so as to obtain reliable prediction for efficient production. Applying certain artificial intelligence algorithms to the precision agriculture can significantly improve the efficiency of traditional agriculture in crop planting and reduce the consumption of human and natural resources. Remote sensing can objectively, accurately and timely provide a large amount of information for ecological environment and crop growth in agriculture applications. By combining the image and spectral data obtained by remote sensing technology with machine learning, information about wheat growth, yield and insect pests can be learned in time. This thesis focuses on its applications in agriculture, particularly using effective prediction models such as the back propagation neural network and some optimisation algorithms for predicting wheat growth, yield and aphid. The work presented in this thesis address the issues of wheat growth prediction, yield assessment and aphid validation by model building and machine learning algorithm optimisation by means of remote sensing data. Specifically, the following objectives are defined: 1. Analyse multiple vegetation indexes based on the TM 1-4 band data of Landsat satellite and use regression algorithms to train the models and predict wheat growth; 2. Analyse and compare multiple vegetation indexes models by means of spectral data and use regression algorithms to predict wheat yield; 3. Combine spectral vegetation indexes and multiple regression algorithms to predict wheat aphid; 4. Use accurate evaluation criteria for validating the efficacy of the various algorithms. In this thesis, the remote sensing data from the satellite has been applied instead of the airborne-based remote sensing data. Based on the TM 1-4 band image data of Landsat satellite, multiple vegetation indexes were used as the input of regression algorithms. After that, four kinds of regression algorithms such as the multiple linear regression (MR) algorithm, back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm were used to train the model and predict the LAI and SPAD. The prediction results of each algorithm were compared with the ground truth information collected by hand held instruments on the ground. The relationship between wheat yield and spectral data has been studied. Based on the BPNN algorithm, four kinds of models such as visible hyperspectral index (VHI) model, hyperspectral vegetation index (HVI) model, difference hyperspectral index (DHI) model and normalized hyperspectral index (NHI) model have been utilized to predict wheat yield. For the optimal NHI model, three regression algorithms such as back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm, were compared to predict wheat yield, and RMSE and R-square of the three algorithms were compared and analysed. Finally, the relationship between wheat aphid and spectral data has been investigated. Nine vegetation indexes related to aphid have been estimated from spectral data as the input of regression algorithms. Five kinds of regression algorithms such as back propagation network (BPNN) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA) optimised BPNN algorithm, particle swarm optimisation (PSO) optimised BPNN algorithm, ant colony (ACO) optimisation algorithm optimised BPNN algorithm and cuckoo search (CS) optimised BPNN algorithm have been implemented to predict wheat aphid, which was validated with the ground truth information measured by hand-held instruments on the ground. The prediction results of each algorithm have been analysed. The major original contributions of this thesis are as follows: 1. A variety of optimisation algorithms are used to improve the regression analysis of the BPNN algorithm, so that the prediction results of each model for wheat growth, yield and aphid are more accurate. 2. The spectral characteristics of winter wheat canopy have been analysed. The correlation between the absorption band and the associated physical and chemical properties of crops, specially the red edge slope, with the crop yield and wheat aphid damage is established. 3. Adjusted MSE and un-centered R-square, as accurate evaluation criteria for practical applications, are used to compare the prediction results of the models under different dimensions of the observed data. 4. Improve algorithm training by using the cross-validation method to obtain reliable and stable models for the prediction of wheat growth, yield, and aphid. Through repeated cross-validation, a better model can be obtained in the last. Key word：Precision agriculture; BP network, wheat growth assessment; wheat yield prediction, wheat aphid validatio

Crop Updates 2005 - Katanning

This session covers twenty five papers from different authors KEYNOTE How Farmers Can Work Together for a More Sustainable and Profitable Business, Brian McAlpine Farmer, Nuffield Scholar GENERAL 2005 Seasonal Outlook, David Stephens and Nicola Telcik, Department of Agriculture Essentials for cereal leaf disease management, K. Jayasena, R. Loughman, G. Thomas, C. Beard, and B. Paynter, Department of Agriculture Benefits to the grower of grain licensing, Colin Mann, Grain Licensing Authority SOIL & NUTRIENTS The effect of higher nitrogen fertiliser prices on rotation and fertiliser strategies in cropping systems, Ross Kingwell, Department of Agriculture Effect of stubble burning and seasonality on microbial processes and nutrient cycling, Francis Hoyle, University of Western Australia Soil Biology and Crop Production in Western Australian Farming Systems, D.V. Murphy, N. Milton, M. Osman, F.C. Hoyle, L.K Abbott, W.R. Cookson and S. Darmawanto, University of Western Australia Nutrient Management to get optimal production, Bill Bowden, Department of Agriculture OTHER CROPS Which malting barley variety and why? Blakely Paynter, Department of Agriculture KASPA AND OTHER NEW PULSE VARIETIES, 1. New Pulse varieties and where they fit in, K. Regan, P. White, Department of Agriculture & CLIMA, K. Siddique, CLIMA, K. Adhikari, Department of Agriculture & CLIMA, M. Harries, CLIMA Kaspa in the WA Grain Belt 2003-2004, Ian Pritchard, Department of Agriculture New annual pastures for Mediterranean farming systems, Angelo Loi, Phil Nichols, Clinton Revell & David Ferris, Department of Agriculture Challenging herbicide resistant ryegrass, Bill Roy, Agricultural Consulting & Research Services Pty.Ltd WEED MANAGEMENT Ingest, incinerate or invert? The pro’s and con’s of 3 weed seed removal tactics, Sally Peltzer1, Dave Minkey1 and Michael Walsh2 Department of Agriculture 1 and Western Australian Herbicide Resistance lnitiative2 A good use guide for pre-emergent herbicides, Alexandra Douglas, Department of Agriculture OTHER USEFUL INFORMATION 17.Growing season outlook, Meredith Fairbanks, Ian Foster, Geraldine Pasqual, David Stephens, Nicola Telcik, David Tennant, Department of Agriculture 18. Status Of Department Of Agriculture Western Australia Crop Varieties 19. Seed Licensee Details 20. Gene technology for growers. What is it? How does it Work? Belinda Barr, Australian Centre for Plant Functional Genomics, Dr Heather Bray, Molecular Plant Breeding Cooperative Research Centre. 21. Agronomic package for EGA Eagle Rock, Steve Penny, Department of Agriculture 22. Nutrient timing and requirements for increased crop yields in the high rainfall cropping zone, Narelle Hill, Ron McTaggart, Dr. Wal Anderson and Ray Tugwell Department of Agriculture 23. Insect contamination of cereal grain at harvest, Svetlana Micic and Phil Michael, Department of Agriculture 24. Crop leftovers: what’s in stubble for sheep? Roy Butler and Keith Croker, Department of Agriculture 25. Mandelup – Narrow-leafed lupi

Multi-sensor and data fusion approach for determining yield limiting factors and for in-situ measurement of yellow rust and fusarium head blight in cereals

The world’s population is increasing and along with it, the demand for food. A novel parametric model (Volterra Non-linear Regressive with eXogenous inputs (VNRX)) is introduced for quantifying influences of individual and multiple soil properties on crop yield and normalised difference vegetation Index. The performance was compared to a random forest method over two consecutive years, with the best results of 55.6% and 52%, respectively. The VNRX was then implemented using high sampling resolution soil data collected with an on-line visible and near infrared (vis-NIR) spectroscopy sensor predicting yield variation of 23.21%. A hyperspectral imager coupled with partial least squares regression was successfully applied in the detection of fusarium head blight and yellow rust infection in winter wheat and barley canopies, under laboratory and on-line measurement conditions. Maps of the two diseases were developed for four fields. Spectral indices of the standard deviation between 500 to 650 nm, and the squared difference between 650 and 700 nm, were found to be useful in differentiating between the two diseases, in the two crops, under variable water stress. The optimisation of the hyperspectral imager for field measurement was based on signal-to-noise ratio, and considered; camera angle and distance, integration time, and light source angle and distance from the crop canopy. The study summarises in the proposal of a new method of disease management through suggested selective harvest and fungicide applications, for winter wheat and barley which theoretically reduced fungicide rate by an average of 24% and offers a combined saving of the two methods of £83 per hectare

Crop Disease Detection Using Remote Sensing Image Analysis

Pest and crop disease threats are often estimated by complex changes in crops and the applied agricultural practices that result mainly from the increasing food demand and climate change at global level. In an attempt to explore high-end and sustainable solutions for both pest and crop disease management, remote sensing technologies have been employed, taking advantages of possible changes deriving from relative alterations in the metabolic activity of infected crops which in turn are highly associated to crop spectral reflectance properties. Recent developments applied to high resolution data acquired with remote sensing tools, offer an additional tool which is the opportunity of mapping the infected field areas in the form of patchy land areas or those areas that are susceptible to diseases. This makes easier the discrimination between healthy and diseased crops, providing an additional tool to crop monitoring. The current book brings together recent research work comprising of innovative applications that involve novel remote sensing approaches and their applications oriented to crop disease detection. The book provides an in-depth view of the developments in remote sensing and explores its potential to assess health status in crops

Crop Updates 2000 - Cereals part 1

This session covers eleven papers from different authors: PLENARY PAPERS 1. New Wheat for a Secure, Sustainable Future, Timothy G. Reeves, Sanjaya Rajaram, Maarten van Ginkel, Richard Trethowan, Hans-Joachim Braun, and Kelly Cassaday, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT) 2. Managing Cereal Rusts - a National Perspective, R.A. McIntosh, University of Sydney Plant Breeding Institute, New South Wales 3. Managing Cereal Rusts in 2000 - a regional imperative, R. Loughman, Agriculture Western Australia 4. Is nutrition the answer to wheat after canola problems?Ross Brennan1, Bill Bowden1, Mike Bolland1, Zed Rengel2 and David Isbister2 1 Agriculture Western Australia 2University of Western Australia 5. Improved Sandplain Cropping Systems by Controlled Traffic, Dr Paul Blackwell, Agriculture Western Australia 6. Raised bed farming for improved cropping of waterlogged soils, Derk Bakker, Greg Hamilton, David Houlbrooke, Cliff Spann and Doug Rowe, Agriculture Western Australia 7. Banded Urea increased wheat yields, Patrick Gethin, Stephen Loss, Frank Boetel, and Tim O’Dea, CSBP futurefarm 8. Flexi N is as effective as Urea on wheat and canola, Frank Boetel, Stephen Loss, Patrick Gethin, and Tim O’Dea CSBP futurefarm 9. Why potassium may reduce cereal leaf disease, Noeleen Edwards, Agriculture Western Australia 10, Trace elements, Wayne Pluske CSBP futurefarm, and Ross BrennanAgriculture Western Australia 11. Historical Nutrient Balance at Paddock and Whole Farm scales for typical wheatbelt farms in the Dowerin - Wongan Hills area, M.T.F. Wong, K. Wittwer and H. Zhang Precision Agriculture Research Group, CSIRO Land and Wate

Elucidating the molecular genetics of host and nonhost resistance in barley to stripe rust

Plants have a remarkable ability to resist the majority of pathogenic microbes they encounter. As such, they are described as nonhosts. Nonhost resistance is often conceptualised as a qualitative separation from host resistance. Classification into these two states is generally facile, as they fail to fully describe the range of states that exist in the transition from host to nonhost. This poses a problem when studying pathosystems that cannot be classified into either of these categories due to their intermediate status relative to the two extremes. Therefore, the terms intermediate host and intermediate nonhost have been proposed to describe pathosystems in the evolutionary transition between host and nonhost status. At present, a significant amount of research exists into the molecular genetics of host and nonhost pathosystems but very little is known about intermediate systems. The work in this Ph. D. thesis focuses on the interaction of barley with Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, the causal agent of wheat stripe rust, as an intermediate host pathosystem. The first research chapter describes the development of two microscopic phenotypic assays used to quantify P. striformis f. sp. tritici in barley leaves challenged with the pathogen. These assays are then used to screen a large panel of barley accessions to define the intermediate host status of barley relative to a host pathosystem. Subsequently, these assays play a key role in determining that the genetic architecture of resistance in barley is underpinned by three major effect resistance loci: Rpst1, Rpst2, and Rpst3. Using a combination of classical map-based genetics and contemporary genomics information I identify a candidate NLR gene underlying Rpst2 resistance on chromosome 7HL. Furthermore, I show that distinct genes condition host and nonhost resistance in barley by mapping the host resistance gene, rps2 to chromosome 2HL

Combining remote sensing and crop modeling techniques to derive a nitrogen fertilizer application strategy

The crucial question in this thesis was how can remote sensing data and crop models be used to derive a N fertilizer strategy that is capable to lower the environmental side effects of N fertilizer application. This raised the following detailed objectives: The first objective (i) how N content determination via spectral reflectance is influenced by different leaves and positions on the leaf was investigated in Publication I. Different wheat plants were cultivated under different N levels and under drought stress in two hydroponic greenhouse trials. Spectral reflectance measurements were taken from three leaves and at three positions on the leaf for each plant. In total, 16 vegetation indices broadly used in the literature were calculated based on the spectral reflectance for each combination of leaf and position. The plant N content was determined by lab analyses. Neither the position on the leaf nor leaf number had an impact on the accuracy of plant N determination via spectral reflectance measurements. Therefore measurements taken at the canopy level seem to be a valid approach. However, if other stress symptoms like drought or disease infection occur, a differentiation between leaves and positions on the leaf might play a more crucial role. Publication II dealt with the second objective on (ii), how to incorporate leaf disease into the DSSAT wheat model to enable the simulation of the impact of leaf disease on yield. An integration of sensor information in crop growth models requires the update of model state variables. A model extension was developed by adding a pest damage module to the existing wheat model. The approach was tested on a two-year dataset from Argentina with different wheat cultivars and on a one-year dataset from Germany with different inoculum levels of septoria tritici blotch (STB). After the integration of disease infection, the accuracy of the simulated yield and leaf area index (LAI) was improved. The Root mean squared error (RMSE) values for yield (1144 kg ha−1) and LAI (1.19 m2 m−2) were reduced by half (499 kg ha−1) for yield and LAI (0.69 m2 m−2). A sensitivity analysis also showed a strong responsiveness of the model by the integration of different STB disease infection scenarios. Increasing the modeling accuracy even further a MM approach seems to be suitable. Assembling more models increases the complexity of the simulation and the involved calibration procedure especially if the user is not familiar with all models. To avoid these conflicts, Publication III evaluated the third objective (iii) if an automatic calibration procedure in a MM approach for winter wheat can eliminate the subjectivity factor in model calibration. The model calibration was performed on a 4-yr N wheat fertilizer trial in southwest Germany. The evaluation mean showed satisfying results for the calibration (d-Index 0.93) and evaluation dataset (d-Index 0.81). This lead to the fourth (iv) objective to use a MM approach to improve the overall modeling accuracy. The evaluation of a fertilizer trial showed an improved modeling accuracy in most cases, especially in the drought season 2018. Based on the combination of a MM approach and the incorporation of sensor data, a Nitrogen Application Prescription System (NAPS) was developed. The initial NAPS setup requires long term recorded data (yield, weather, and soil) to ensure proper MM calibration. After calibration, the current growing season conditions are required (weather, management information) until the N application date. Afterward, the NAPS incorporates remote sensing information and generated weather for running future N application scenarios. The selection of the proper amount of N is determined by economic and ecological criteria. Furthermore, in order to account for differences in in-field variabilities and to deliver a N prescription site-specifically, the NAPS concept has to be applied on a geospatial scale by adjusting soil parameters spatially. The NAPS concept has the potential to adjust the N application more economically and ecologically by using current sensor data, historical yield records, and future weather prediction to derive a more precise N application strategy. Finally, this concept exhibits the potential for reconciliation of the issue of an economic, agricultural production without harming the environment.In dieser Arbeit wurde eruiert, ob mit Hilfe von Sensordaten und Pflanzenwachstumsmodellen eine N-Düngemittelstrategie abgeleitet werden kann, die in der Lage ist die ökologischen Belastung zu verringern. Dies umfasste die Evaluation folgender Fragestellungen: (I) Wird die spektrale Reflexion und somit die Bestimmung der N-Konzentration durch die Messung an verschiedenen Blattetagen und -Positionen beeinflusst (Publikation I)? Für die Klärung dieser ersten Frage wurden in zwei hydroponischen Gewächshausversuchen Weizenpflanzen bei unterschiedlicher N-Exposition und Trockenstress kultiviert. Für jede Pflanze wurden spektrale Reflexionsmessungen an drei Blattetagen und an drei Positionen auf dem Blatt durchgeführt. Insgesamt wurden die 16 üblichsten auf spektraler Reflexion basierenden Vegetationsindizes für jede Kombination von Blattetage und -Position berechnet. Die N-Konzentration der Pflanze wurde durch Laboranalysen bestimmt. Weder die Position auf dem Blatt noch die Blattetage hatten einen Einfluss auf die Genauigkeit der Bestimmung der N-Konzentration der Pflanze durch spektrale Reflexionsmessungen. Daher sind Messungen auf Bestandsebene ausreichend. Falls jedoch weitere Stressfaktoren wie Trockenheit oder Krankheitsbefall auftreten, kann eine Differenzierung zwischen verschiedenen Blattetagen notwendig oder von Vorteil sein. In der nächsten Fragestellung (Publikation II) wurde untersucht, wie Blattkrankheiten in ein DSSAT-Weizenmodell integriert werden können, um so die Auswirkungen von Blattkrankheiten auf den Ertrag zu simulieren. Eine Modellerweiterung wurde entwickelt, durch die Integration eines Blattkrankheitsmoduls in das bestehende DSSAT Weizenmodell. Das Modul simuliert die Auswirkungen des täglichen Schadens durch die Krankheit auf die Photosynthese und den Blattflächenindex. Der Ansatz wurde an einem zweijährigen Datensatz aus Argentinien mit verschiedenen Weizensorten und an einem einjährigen Datensatz aus Deutschland mit verschiedenen Inokulumniveaus von Septoria tritici-Blotch (STB) getestet. Die Sensitivitätsanalyse zeigte die Möglichkeit des Modells, den Ertrag in einer exponentiellen Beziehung mit zunehmendem Infektionsgrad (0-70%) zu reduzieren. Das erweiterte Modell stellt somit eine Möglichkeit dar, STB-Infektionen standortspezifisch in Verbindung mit verfügbaren Sensordaten zu simulieren. Um die Modellierungsgenauigkeit noch weiter zu erhöhen, wurde der Einsatz eines MM-Ansatz geprüft. Die Kombination von verschiedenen Modellen erhöht die Komplexität der Simulation und des damit verbundenen Kalibrierungsverfahrens, insbesondere wenn der Benutzer nicht mit allen Modellen vertraut ist. Die dritte Fragestellung (iii) untersuchte daher, ob objektive Kalibrierungsergebnisse gewährleitet werden könnten, wenn die cultivar coefficients im Modell auf Basis tatsächlich gemessener Daten mittels eines neu entwickelten automatischen Calibrator-Programms optimiert wurden. Die Modellkalibrierung wurde an einem 4-jährigen-Weizendüngungsversuch in Südwestdeutschland durchgeführt. Die statistische Auswertung des Kalibrierverfahrens zeigte zufriedenstellende Ergebnisse und führte zur vierten Fragestellung. Die vierte Fragestellung befasste sich mit dem Thema, ob ein MM-Ansatz die Gesamtmodelliergenauigkeit verbessern kann. Die Auswertung des Düngemittelversuchs zeigte in den meisten Fällen eine verbesserte Modellierungsgenauigkeit, insbesondere in einem durch Wasserstress geprägten Versuchsjahr wie 2018. Unter Verwendung eines MM-Ansatzes, durch Anpassung der Modellvariablen und durch die Integration von Sensordaten wurde ein Nitrogen Application Prescription System (NAPS) entwickelt. Eine Voraussetzung für das NAPS-Konzepts ist das Vorhandensein von Langzeit-Daten (Ertrag, Klima- und Bodenbedingungen), um eine korrekte MM-Kalibrierung zu gewährleisten. Nach der Kalibrierung werden die Bedingungen der aktuellen Wachstumssaison (Wetter, Managementinformationen) bis zum Düngetermin benötigt. Anschließend berechnet das NAPS basierend auf Sensorinformationen und simulierten Wetterbedingungen verschiedene Düngeszenarien. Ökonomische und ökologische Kriterien bestimmen die optimierte Düngemenge. Darüber hinaus muss das NAPS-Konzept auf räumlicher Ebene arbeiten, indem es die Bodenparameter berücksichtigt. So kann unter Beachtung der Feldvariabilität eine standortspezifische N-Ausbringung gewährleistet werden. In Summe zeigte sich, dass NAPS die Düngung an ökonomische und ökologische Faktoren anpasst, indem es aktuelle Sensordaten, historische Ertragsaufzeichnungen und zukünftige Wettervorhersagen zur Ermittlung einer präziseren N-Ausbringung nutzt. Das Konzept hat so das Potenzial, die nachteiligen Auswirkungen einer Überdüngung zu begrenzen, so dass eine umweltfreundlichere Agrarproduktion gewährleistet wird

Combining remote sensing and crop modeling techniques to derive a nitrogen fertilizer application strategy

The crucial question in this thesis was how can remote sensing data and crop models be used to derive a N fertilizer strategy that is capable to lower the environmental side effects of N fertilizer application. This raised the following detailed objectives: The first objective (i) how N content determination via spectral reflectance is influenced by different leaves and positions on the leaf was investigated in Publication I. Different wheat plants were cultivated under different N levels and under drought stress in two hydroponic greenhouse trials. Spectral reflectance measurements were taken from three leaves and at three positions on the leaf for each plant. In total, 16 vegetation indices broadly used in the literature were calculated based on the spectral reflectance for each combination of leaf and position. The plant N content was determined by lab analyses. Neither the position on the leaf nor leaf number had an impact on the accuracy of plant N determination via spectral reflectance measurements. Therefore measurements taken at the canopy level seem to be a valid approach. However, if other stress symptoms like drought or disease infection occur, a differentiation between leaves and positions on the leaf might play a more crucial role. Publication II dealt with the second objective on (ii), how to incorporate leaf disease into the DSSAT wheat model to enable the simulation of the impact of leaf disease on yield. An integration of sensor information in crop growth models requires the update of model state variables. A model extension was developed by adding a pest damage module to the existing wheat model. The approach was tested on a two-year dataset from Argentina with different wheat cultivars and on a one-year dataset from Germany with different inoculum levels of septoria tritici blotch (STB). After the integration of disease infection, the accuracy of the simulated yield and leaf area index (LAI) was improved. The Root mean squared error (RMSE) values for yield (1144 kg ha−1) and LAI (1.19 m2 m−2) were reduced by half (499 kg ha−1) for yield and LAI (0.69 m2 m−2). A sensitivity analysis also showed a strong responsiveness of the model by the integration of different STB disease infection scenarios. Increasing the modeling accuracy even further a MM approach seems to be suitable. Assembling more models increases the complexity of the simulation and the involved calibration procedure especially if the user is not familiar with all models. To avoid these conflicts, Publication III evaluated the third objective (iii) if an automatic calibration procedure in a MM approach for winter wheat can eliminate the subjectivity factor in model calibration. The model calibration was performed on a 4-yr N wheat fertilizer trial in southwest Germany. The evaluation mean showed satisfying results for the calibration (d-Index 0.93) and evaluation dataset (d-Index 0.81). This lead to the fourth (iv) objective to use a MM approach to improve the overall modeling accuracy. The evaluation of a fertilizer trial showed an improved modeling accuracy in most cases, especially in the drought season 2018. Based on the combination of a MM approach and the incorporation of sensor data, a Nitrogen Application Prescription System (NAPS) was developed. The initial NAPS setup requires long term recorded data (yield, weather, and soil) to ensure proper MM calibration. After calibration, the current growing season conditions are required (weather, management information) until the N application date. Afterward, the NAPS incorporates remote sensing information and generated weather for running future N application scenarios. The selection of the proper amount of N is determined by economic and ecological criteria. Furthermore, in order to account for differences in in-field variabilities and to deliver a N prescription site-specifically, the NAPS concept has to be applied on a geospatial scale by adjusting soil parameters spatially. The NAPS concept has the potential to adjust the N application more economically and ecologically by using current sensor data, historical yield records, and future weather prediction to derive a more precise N application strategy. Finally, this concept exhibits the potential for reconciliation of the issue of an economic, agricultural production without harming the environment.In dieser Arbeit wurde eruiert, ob mit Hilfe von Sensordaten und Pflanzenwachstumsmodellen eine N-Düngemittelstrategie abgeleitet werden kann, die in der Lage ist die ökologischen Belastung zu verringern. Dies umfasste die Evaluation folgender Fragestellungen: (I) Wird die spektrale Reflexion und somit die Bestimmung der N-Konzentration durch die Messung an verschiedenen Blattetagen und -Positionen beeinflusst (Publikation I)? Für die Klärung dieser ersten Frage wurden in zwei hydroponischen Gewächshausversuchen Weizenpflanzen bei unterschiedlicher N-Exposition und Trockenstress kultiviert. Für jede Pflanze wurden spektrale Reflexionsmessungen an drei Blattetagen und an drei Positionen auf dem Blatt durchgeführt. Insgesamt wurden die 16 üblichsten auf spektraler Reflexion basierenden Vegetationsindizes für jede Kombination von Blattetage und -Position berechnet. Die N-Konzentration der Pflanze wurde durch Laboranalysen bestimmt. Weder die Position auf dem Blatt noch die Blattetage hatten einen Einfluss auf die Genauigkeit der Bestimmung der N-Konzentration der Pflanze durch spektrale Reflexionsmessungen. Daher sind Messungen auf Bestandsebene ausreichend. Falls jedoch weitere Stressfaktoren wie Trockenheit oder Krankheitsbefall auftreten, kann eine Differenzierung zwischen verschiedenen Blattetagen notwendig oder von Vorteil sein. In der nächsten Fragestellung (Publikation II) wurde untersucht, wie Blattkrankheiten in ein DSSAT-Weizenmodell integriert werden können, um so die Auswirkungen von Blattkrankheiten auf den Ertrag zu simulieren. Eine Modellerweiterung wurde entwickelt, durch die Integration eines Blattkrankheitsmoduls in das bestehende DSSAT Weizenmodell. Das Modul simuliert die Auswirkungen des täglichen Schadens durch die Krankheit auf die Photosynthese und den Blattflächenindex. Der Ansatz wurde an einem zweijährigen Datensatz aus Argentinien mit verschiedenen Weizensorten und an einem einjährigen Datensatz aus Deutschland mit verschiedenen Inokulumniveaus von Septoria tritici-Blotch (STB) getestet. Die Sensitivitätsanalyse zeigte die Möglichkeit des Modells, den Ertrag in einer exponentiellen Beziehung mit zunehmendem Infektionsgrad (0-70%) zu reduzieren. Das erweiterte Modell stellt somit eine Möglichkeit dar, STB-Infektionen standortspezifisch in Verbindung mit verfügbaren Sensordaten zu simulieren. Um die Modellierungsgenauigkeit noch weiter zu erhöhen, wurde der Einsatz eines MM-Ansatz geprüft. Die Kombination von verschiedenen Modellen erhöht die Komplexität der Simulation und des damit verbundenen Kalibrierungsverfahrens, insbesondere wenn der Benutzer nicht mit allen Modellen vertraut ist. Die dritte Fragestellung (iii) untersuchte daher, ob objektive Kalibrierungsergebnisse gewährleitet werden könnten, wenn die cultivar coefficients im Modell auf Basis tatsächlich gemessener Daten mittels eines neu entwickelten automatischen Calibrator-Programms optimiert wurden. Die Modellkalibrierung wurde an einem 4-jährigen-Weizendüngungsversuch in Südwestdeutschland durchgeführt. Die statistische Auswertung des Kalibrierverfahrens zeigte zufriedenstellende Ergebnisse und führte zur vierten Fragestellung. Die vierte Fragestellung befasste sich mit dem Thema, ob ein MM-Ansatz die Gesamtmodelliergenauigkeit verbessern kann. Die Auswertung des Düngemittelversuchs zeigte in den meisten Fällen eine verbesserte Modellierungsgenauigkeit, insbesondere in einem durch Wasserstress geprägten Versuchsjahr wie 2018. Unter Verwendung eines MM-Ansatzes, durch Anpassung der Modellvariablen und durch die Integration von Sensordaten wurde ein Nitrogen Application Prescription System (NAPS) entwickelt. Eine Voraussetzung für das NAPS-Konzepts ist das Vorhandensein von Langzeit-Daten (Ertrag, Klima- und Bodenbedingungen), um eine korrekte MM-Kalibrierung zu gewährleisten. Nach der Kalibrierung werden die Bedingungen der aktuellen Wachstumssaison (Wetter, Managementinformationen) bis zum Düngetermin benötigt. Anschließend berechnet das NAPS basierend auf Sensorinformationen und simulierten Wetterbedingungen verschiedene Düngeszenarien. Ökonomische und ökologische Kriterien bestimmen die optimierte Düngemenge. Darüber hinaus muss das NAPS-Konzept auf räumlicher Ebene arbeiten, indem es die Bodenparameter berücksichtigt. So kann unter Beachtung der Feldvariabilität eine standortspezifische N-Ausbringung gewährleistet werden. In Summe zeigte sich, dass NAPS die Düngung an ökonomische und ökologische Faktoren anpasst, indem es aktuelle Sensordaten, historische Ertragsaufzeichnungen und zukünftige Wettervorhersagen zur Ermittlung einer präziseren N-Ausbringung nutzt. Das Konzept hat so das Potenzial, die nachteiligen Auswirkungen einer Überdüngung zu begrenzen, so dass eine umweltfreundlichere Agrarproduktion gewährleistet wird

Genomic resources in plant breeding for sustainable agriculture

Climate change during the last 40 years has had a serious impact on agriculture and threatens global food and nutritional security. From over half a million plant species, cereals and legumes are the most important for food and nutritional security. Although systematic plant breeding has a relatively short history, conventional breeding coupled with advances in technology and crop management strategies has increased crop yields by 56 % globally between 1965-85, referred to as the Green Revolution. Nevertheless, increased demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel necessitates the need to break existing yield barriers in many crop plants. In the first decade of the 21st century we witnessed rapid discovery, transformative technological development and declining costs of genomics technologies. In the second decade, the field turned towards making sense of the vast amount of genomic information and subsequently moved towards accurately predicting gene-to-phenotype associations and tailoring plants for climate resilience and global food security. In this review we focus on genomic resources, genome and germplasm sequencing, sequencing-based trait mapping, and genomics-assisted breeding approaches aimed at developing biotic stress resistant, abiotic stress tolerant and high nutrition varieties in six major cereals (rice, maize, wheat, barley, sorghum and pearl millet), and six major legumes (soybean, groundnut, cowpea, common bean, chickpea and pigeonpea). We further provide a perspective and way forward to use genomic breeding approaches including marker-assisted selection, marker-assisted backcrossing, haplotype based breeding and genomic prediction approaches coupled with machine learning and artificial intelligence, to speed breeding approaches. The overall goal is to accelerate genetic gains and deliver climate resilient and high nutrition crop varieties for sustainable agriculture