Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products

This paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods defined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China-Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China’s accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China’s export competitiveness was definitely positive. The short-term impact of the EU’s CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany’s exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany’s exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.Growth causes of agri-food trade; the CMS model; the EU’s CAP reform; China’s accession to WTO; financial crisis

National Security Risks? Uncertainty, Austerity and Other Logics of Risk in the UK government’s National Security Strategy

Risk scholars within Security studies have argued that the concept of security has gone through a fundamental transformation away from a threat-based conceptualisation of defence, urgency and exceptionality to one of preparedness, precautions and prevention of future risks, some of which are calculable, others of which are not. This article explores whether and how the concept of security is changing due to this ‘rise of risk’, through a hermeneutically grounded conceptual and discourse analysis of the United Kingdom government’s national security strategy (NSS) from 1998 to 2011. We ask how risk-security language is employed in the NSS; what factors motivate such discursive shifts; and what, if any, consequences of these shifts can be discerned in UK national security practices. Our aim is twofold: to better understand shifts in the security understandings and policies of UK authorities; and to contribute to the conceptual debate on the significance of the rise of risk as a component of the concept of security

The Effects of American Involvement in Northern Uganda\u27s Conflict with the Lord\u27s Resistance Army

This project explores the impact of American governmental and non-governmental actors in the Lord\u27s Resistance Army (LRA) conflict in northern Uganda and southern Sudan, particularly the U.S. military, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and various non-governmental organizations (NGOs). It also examines the efficacy of these various forms of intervention, specifically the deployment of U.S. Special Forces tracking the LRA, and the initiation of various soldier reintegration, governance, and sustainability programs organized by USAID and NGOs such as Invisible Children. Additionally, this project seeks to uncover underlying geopolitical objectives, such as gaining alliances in the \u27Global War on Terror\u27 and protecting regional oil interests, that have motivated these U.S. government policies. Overall, this project has sought to critically examine the impact of American involvement in the northern Uganda conflict, both positive and negative, and evaluate the human impact of these international geopolitical influences on the people of northern Uganda, southern Sudan, and beyond

Public Good Theory and the 'Added Value' of the EU's Counterterrorism Policy

This paper develops a deductive theoretical framework for assessing the EU's added value in the fight against terrorism. The first part argues that public good theory helps to conceptualize objectives of international counterterrorism cooperation and the respective role of international organizations. It critically evaluates existing discussions of security cooperation from this theoretical perspective and sets out a typology of policies according to three aggregation technologies (weaker links, summation, better shot), each of which is linked to a specific set of governance challenges. The second part surveys the EU's counterterrorism efforts on this basis. Weaker link issues - such as the protection of the movement of people, goods and capital - and the related problem of mutual assurance have been quite successfully addressed, even if there is increasing uncertainty over the boundaries of cooperation. In contrast, the EU fell short with regard to joint efforts in the fight against terrorism due to the non-excludable nature of benefits, as in the case of foreign policy, or (partial) rivalry of consumption, as in the case of intelligence sharing or disaster response capacities. Finally, the EU increasingly supports better shot initiatives to develop new instruments and technologies to combat terrorism, but is often overtaken by mini-lateral forms of cooperation.counterterrorism, public good theory, international organisations, European Union