5,071 research outputs found

    Interval-valued upside potential and downside risk portfolio optimisation

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    A novel interval optimisation approach is developed to include imprecise forecasts into the portfolio selection process for investors measuring upside potential and downside risk as deviations from a target return. Crisp scenarios are substituted by interval scenarios and the resulting interval optimisation problem is solved in a tractable manner by means of a bi-objective formulation exploiting a partial order relation between intervals. Four utility case studies involving assets from the F.T.S.E. M.I.B. Index are considered to illustrate how impreciseness can be efficiently handled in portfolio management

    Mean–Variance portfolio selection in presence of infrequently traded stocks

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    This paper deals with a mean-variance optimal portfolio selection problem in presence of risky assets characterized by low frequency of trading and, therefore, low liquidity. To model the dynamics of illiquid assets, we introduce pure-jump processes. This leads to the development of a portfolio selection model in a mixed discrete/continuous time setting. In this paper, we pursue the twofold scope of analyzing and comparing either long-term investment strategies as well as short-term trading rules. The theoretical model is analyzed by applying extensive Monte Carlo experiments, in order to provide useful insights from a Önancial perspectiv

    Robust portfolio management with multiple financial analysts

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    Portfolio selection theory, developed by Markowitz (1952), is one of the best known and widely applied methods for allocating funds among possible investment choices, where investment decision making is a trade-off between the expected return and risk of the portfolio. Many portfolio selection models have been developed on the basis of Markowitz’s theory. Most of them assume that complete investment information is available and that it can be accurately extracted from the historical data. However, this complete information never exists in reality. There are many kinds of ambiguity and vagueness which cannot be dealt with in the historical data but still need to be considered in portfolio selection. For example, to address the issue of uncertainty caused by estimation errors, the robust counterpart approach of Ben-Tal and Nemirovski (1998) has been employed frequently in recent years. Robustification, however, often leads to a more conservative solution. As a consequence, one of the most common critiques against the robust counterpart approach is the excessively pessimistic character of the robust asset allocation. This thesis attempts to develop new approaches to improve on the respective performances of the robust counterpart approach by incorporating additional investment information sources, so that the optimal portfolio can be more reliable and, at the same time, achieve a greater return. [Continues.

    Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory

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    [EN] The present research proposes a novel methodology to solve the problems faced by investors who take into consideration different investment criteria in a fuzzy context. The approach extends the stochastic mean-variance model to a fuzzy multiobjective model where liquidity is considered to quantify portfolio's performance, apart from the usual metrics like return and risk. The uncertainty of the future returns and the future liquidity of the potential assets are modelled employing trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The decision process of the proposed approach considers that portfolio selection is a multidimensional issue and also some realistic constraints applied by investors. Particularly, this approach optimizes the expected return, the risk and the expected liquidity of the portfolio, considering bound constraints and cardinality restrictions. As a result, an optimization problem for the constraint portfolio appears, which is solved by means of the NSGA-II algorithm. This study defines the credibilistic Sortino ratio and the credibilistic STARR ratio for selecting the optimal portfolio. An empirical study on the S&P100 index is included to show the performance of the model in practical applications. The results obtained demonstrate that the novel approach can beat the index in terms of return and risk in the analyzed period, from 2008 until 2018.GarcĂ­a GarcĂ­a, F.; GonzĂĄlez-Bueno, J.; Guijarro, F.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J.; Tamosiuniene, R. (2020). Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory. Technological and Economic Development of Economy (Online). 26(6):1165-1186. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.13189S11651186266Acerbi, C., & Tasche, D. (2002). On the coherence of expected shortfall. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1487-1503. doi:10.1016/s0378-4266(02)00283-2Ahmed, A., Ali, R., Ejaz, A., & Ahmad, I. (2018). Sectoral integration and investment diversification opportunities: evidence from Colombo Stock Exchange. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 5(3), 514-527. doi:10.9770/jesi.2018.5.3(8)Arenas Parra, M., Bilbao Terol, A., & Rodrı́guez Urı́a, M. V. (2001). A fuzzy goal programming approach to portfolio selection. European Journal of Operational Research, 133(2), 287-297. doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(00)00298-8Arribas, I., EspinĂłs-Vañó, M. D., GarcĂ­a, F., & TamoĆĄiĆ«nienė, R. (2019). Negative screening and sustainable portfolio diversification. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 6(4), 1566-1586. doi:10.9770/jesi.2019.6.4(2)Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.-M., & Heath, D. (1999). Coherent Measures of Risk. Mathematical Finance, 9(3), 203-228. doi:10.1111/1467-9965.00068Bawa, V. S. (1975). Optimal rules for ordering uncertain prospects. Journal of Financial Economics, 2(1), 95-121. doi:10.1016/0304-405x(75)90025-2BermĂșdez, J. D., Segura, J. V., & Vercher, E. (2012). A multi-objective genetic algorithm for cardinality constrained fuzzy portfolio selection. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 188(1), 16-26. doi:10.1016/j.fss.2011.05.013Bezoui, M., MoulaĂŻ, M., Bounceur, A., & Euler, R. (2018). An iterative method for solving a bi-objective constrained portfolio optimization problem. Computational Optimization and Applications, 72(2), 479-498. doi:10.1007/s10589-018-0052-9Bi, T., Zhang, B., & Wu, H. (2013). Measuring Downside Risk Using High-Frequency Data: Realized Downside Risk Measure. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, 42(4), 741-754. doi:10.1080/03610918.2012.655826Carlsson, C., FullĂ©r, R., & Majlender, P. (2002). A possibilistic approach to selecting portfolios with highest utility score. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 131(1), 13-21. doi:10.1016/s0165-0114(01)00251-2Chen, W., & Xu, W. (2018). A Hybrid Multiobjective Bat Algorithm for Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization with Real-World Constraints. 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Forecasting the Environmental, Social, and Governance Rating of Firms by Using Corporate Financial Performance Variables: A Rough Set Approach. Sustainability, 12(8), 3324. doi:10.3390/su12083324GarcĂ­a, GonzĂĄlez-Bueno, Oliver, & Riley. (2019). Selecting Socially Responsible Portfolios: A Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach. Sustainability, 11(9), 2496. doi:10.3390/su11092496GarcĂ­a, F., GonzĂĄlez-Bueno, J., Oliver, J., & TamoĆĄiĆ«nienė, R. (2019). A CREDIBILISTIC MEAN-SEMIVARIANCE-PER PORTFOLIO SELECTION MODEL FOR LATIN AMERICA. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 20(2), 225-243. doi:10.3846/jbem.2019.8317GarcĂ­a, F., Guijarro, F., & Moya, I. (2013). A MULTIOBJECTIVE MODEL FOR PASSIVE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: AN APPLICATION ON THE S&P 100 INDEX. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14(4), 758-775. doi:10.3846/16111699.2012.668859GarcĂ­a, F., Guijarro, F., & Oliver, J. (2017). Index tracking optimization with cardinality constraint: a performance comparison of genetic algorithms and tabu search heuristics. Neural Computing and Applications, 30(8), 2625-2641. doi:10.1007/s00521-017-2882-2GarcĂ­a, F., Guijarro, F., Oliver, J., & TamoĆĄiĆ«nienė, R. (2018). HYBRID FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK TO PREDICT PRICE DIRECTION IN THE GERMAN DAX-30 INDEX. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(6), 2161-2178. doi:10.3846/tede.2018.6394Goel, A., Sharma, A., & Mehra, A. (2018). Index tracking and enhanced indexing using mixed conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 335, 361-380. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2017.12.015GonzĂĄlez-Bueno, J. (2019). OptimizaciĂłn multiobjetivo para la selecciĂłn de carteras a la luz de la teorĂ­a de la credibilidad. Una aplicaciĂłn en el mercado integrado latinoamericano. Editorial Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana.Gupta, P., Inuiguchi, M., & Mehlawat, M. K. (2011). A hybrid approach for constructing suitable and optimal portfolios. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(5), 5620-5632. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2010.10.073Gupta, P., Inuiguchi, M., Mehlawat, M. K., & Mittal, G. (2013). Multiobjective credibilistic portfolio selection model with fuzzy chance-constraints. Information Sciences, 229, 1-17. doi:10.1016/j.ins.2012.12.011Gupta, P., Mehlawat, M. K., Inuiguchi, M., & Chandra, S. (2014). Portfolio Optimization Using Credibility Theory. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, 127-160. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-54652-5_5Gupta, P., Mehlawat, M. K., Inuiguchi, M., & Chandra, S. (2014). Portfolio Optimization with Interval Coefficients. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, 33-59. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-54652-5_2Gupta, P., Mehlawat, M. K., Kumar, A., Yadav, S., & Aggarwal, A. (2020). A Credibilistic Fuzzy DEA Approach for Portfolio Efficiency Evaluation and Rebalancing Toward Benchmark Portfolios Using Positive and Negative Returns. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 22(3), 824-843. doi:10.1007/s40815-020-00801-4Gupta, P., Mehlawat, M. K., & Saxena, A. (2010). A hybrid approach to asset allocation with simultaneous consideration of suitability and optimality. Information Sciences, 180(11), 2264-2285. doi:10.1016/j.ins.2010.02.007Gupta, P., Mehlawat, M. K., Yadav, S., & Kumar, A. (2020). Intuitionistic fuzzy optimistic and pessimistic multi-period portfolio optimization models. Soft Computing, 24(16), 11931-11956. doi:10.1007/s00500-019-04639-3Gupta, P., Mittal, G., & Mehlawat, M. K. (2013). Expected value multiobjective portfolio rebalancing model with fuzzy parameters. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 52(2), 190-203. doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2012.12.002Heidari-Fathian, H., & Davari-Ardakani, H. (2019). Bi-objective optimization of a project selection and adjustment problem under risk controls. Journal of Modelling in Management, 15(1), 89-111. doi:10.1108/jm2-07-2018-0106Hilkevics, S., & Semakina, V. (2019). The classification and comparison of business ratios analysis methods. Insights into Regional Development, 1(1), 48-57. doi:10.9770/ird.2019.1.1(4)Huang, X. (2006). Fuzzy chance-constrained portfolio selection. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 177(2), 500-507. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2005.11.027Huang, X. (2008). Mean-semivariance models for fuzzy portfolio selection. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 217(1), 1-8. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2007.06.009Huang, X. (2009). A review of credibilistic portfolio selection. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 8(3), 263-281. doi:10.1007/s10700-009-9064-3Huang, X. (2010). Portfolio Analysis. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-11214-0Huang, X. (2017). A review of uncertain portfolio selection. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 32(6), 4453-4465. doi:10.3233/jifs-169211Huang, X., & Di, H. (2016). Uncertain portfolio selection with background risk. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 276, 284-296. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2015.12.018Huang, X., & Wang, X. (2019). International portfolio optimization based on uncertainty theory. Optimization, 70(2), 225-249. doi:10.1080/02331934.2019.1705821Huang, X., & Yang, T. (2020). How does background risk affect portfolio choice: An analysis based on uncertain mean-variance model with background risk. Journal of Banking & Finance, 111, 105726. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105726Jalota, H., Thakur, M., & Mittal, G. (2017). Modelling and constructing membership function for uncertain portfolio parameters: A credibilistic framework. Expert Systems with Applications, 71, 40-56. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2016.11.014Jalota, H., Thakur, M., & Mittal, G. (2017). A credibilistic decision support system for portfolio optimization. Applied Soft Computing, 59, 512-528. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2017.05.054Kaplan, P. D., & Alldredge, R. H. (1997). Semivariance in Risk-Based Index Construction. The Journal of Investing, 6(2), 82-87. doi:10.3905/joi.1997.408419Konno, H., & Yamazaki, H. (1991). Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio Optimization Model and Its Applications to Tokyo Stock Market. Management Science, 37(5), 519-531. doi:10.1287/mnsc.37.5.519Li, B., Zhu, Y., Sun, Y., Aw, G., & Teo, K. L. (2018). Multi-period portfolio selection problem under uncertain environment with bankruptcy constraint. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 56, 539-550. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2017.12.016Li, H.-Q., & Yi, Z.-H. (2019). Portfolio selection with coherent Investor’s expectations under uncertainty. Expert Systems with Applications, 133, 49-58. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2019.05.008Li, X., & Qin, Z. (2014). Interval portfolio selection models within the framework of uncertainty theory. Economic Modelling, 41, 338-344. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.036Liagkouras, K., & Metaxiotis, K. (2015). Efficient Portfolio Construction with the Use of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms: Best Practices and Performance Metrics. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 14(03), 535-564. doi:10.1142/s0219622015300013Liu, B. (2004). Uncertainty Theory. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-39987-2Baoding Liu, & Yian-Kui Liu. (2002). Expected value of fuzzy variable and fuzzy expected value models. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 10(4), 445-450. doi:10.1109/tfuzz.2002.800692Liu, N., Chen, Y., & Liu, Y. (2018). Optimizing portfolio selection problems under credibilistic CVaR criterion. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 34(1), 335-347. doi:10.3233/jifs-171298Liu, Y.-J., & Zhang, W.-G. (2018). Multiperiod Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Optimization Model Based on Possibility Theory. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 17(03), 941-968. doi:10.1142/s0219622018500190Mansour, N., Cherif, M. S., & Abdelfattah, W. (2019). Multi-objective imprecise programming for financial portfolio selection with fuzzy returns. Expert Systems with Applications, 138, 112810. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2019.07.027Markowitz, H. (1952). PORTFOLIO SELECTION*. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1952.tb01525.xMarkowitz, H., Todd, P., Xu, G., & Yamane, Y. (1993). Computation of mean-semivariance efficient sets by the Critical Line Algorithm. Annals of Operations Research, 45(1), 307-317. doi:10.1007/bf02282055Martin, R. D., Rachev, S. (Zari), & Siboulet, F. (2003). Phi-alpha optimal portfolios and extreme risk management. Wilmott, 2003(6), 70-83. doi:10.1002/wilm.42820030619Mehlawat, M. K. (2016). Credibilistic mean-entropy models for multi-period portfolio selection with multi-choice aspiration levels. Information Sciences, 345, 9-26. doi:10.1016/j.ins.2016.01.042Mehlawat, M. K., Gupta, P., Kumar, A., Yadav, S., & Aggarwal, A. (2020). Multiobjective Fuzzy Portfolio Performance Evaluation Using Data Envelopment Analysis Under Credibilistic Framework. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 28(11), 2726-2737. doi:10.1109/tfuzz.2020.2969406Mehralizade, R., Amini, M., Sadeghpour Gildeh, B., & Ahmadzade, H. (2020). Uncertain random portfolio selection based on risk curve. Soft Computing, 24(17), 13331-13345. doi:10.1007/s00500-020-04751-9Moeini, M. (2019). Solving the index tracking problem: a continuous optimization approach. Central European Journal of Operations Research. doi:10.1007/s10100-019-00633-0Narkunienė, J., & Ulbinaitė, A. (2018). Comparative analysis of company performance evaluation methods. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 6(1), 125-138. doi:10.9770/jesi.2018.6.1(10)Palanikumar, K., Latha, B., Senthilkumar, V. S., & Karthikeyan, R. (2009). Multiple performance optimization in machining of GFRP composites by a PCD tool using non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). 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    Testing The Adaptive Efficiency Of U.S. Stock Markets: A Genetic Programming Approach

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    Genetic programming is employed to develop trading rules, which are applied to test the efficient market hypothesis. Most previous tests of the efficient market hypothesis were limited to trading rules that returned simple buy-sell signals. The broader approach taken here, developed under a framework consistent with the standard portfolio model, allows use of trading rules that are defined as the proportion of an investor’s total wealth invested into the risky asset (rather than being a simple buy-sell signal). The methodology uses average utility of terminal wealth as the fitness function, as a means of adjusting returns for risk. With data on daily stock prices from 1985 to 2005, the algorithm finds trading rules for 24 individual stocks. These rules then are applied to out-of-sample data to test adaptive efficiency of these markets. Applying more stringent thresholds to choose the trading rules to be applied out-of-sample (an extension of previous research) improves out-of-sample fitness; however, the rules still do not outperform the simple buy-and-hold strategy. These findings therefore imply that the 24 stock markets studied were adaptively efficient during the period under study

    Toward behavioural innovation economics – Heuristics and biases in choice under novelty

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    A framework for ‘behavioural innovation economics’ is proposed here as a synthesis of behavioural economics and innovation economics in the specific context of choice under novelty. We seek to apply the heuristics and biases framework of behavioural economics to the study of the innovation process in order to map and analyze systematic choice failures in the innovation process. We elaborate the distinction between choice under uncertainty and choice under novelty, as well as drawing out the ‘efficient innovation hypothesis’ implicit in most behavioural models of innovation. The subject domain of a research program for behavioural innovation economics is then briefly outlined in terms of a catalogue of characteristic ways in which choice under novelty renders innovation processes subject to failure.

    A Conceptual Model of Investor Behavior

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    Based on a survey of behavioral finance literature, this paper presents a descriptive model of individual investor behavior in which investment decisions are seen as an iterative process of interactions between the investor and the investment environment. This investment process is influenced by a number of interdependent variables and driven by dual mental systems, the interplay of which contributes to boundedly rational behavior where investors use various heuristics and may exhibit behavioral biases. In the modeling tradition of cognitive science and intelligent systems, the investor is seen as a learning, adapting, and evolving entity that perceives the environment, processes information, acts upon it, and updates his or her internal states. This conceptual model can be used to build stylized representations of (classes of) individual investors, and further studied using the paradigm of agent-based artificial financial markets. By allowing us to implement individual investor behavior, to choose various market mechanisms, and to analyze the obtained asset prices, agent-based models can bridge the gap between the micro level of individual investor behavior and the macro level of aggregate market phenomena. It has been recognized, yet not fully explored, that these models could be used as a tool to generate or test various behavioral hypothesis.behavioral finance;financial decision making;agent-based artificial financial markets;cognitive modeling;investor behavior

    Infrastructure systems modeling using data visualization and trend extraction

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    “Current infrastructure systems modeling literature lacks frameworks that integrate data visualization and trend extraction needed for complex systems decision making and planning. Critical infrastructures such as transportation and energy systems contain interdependencies that cannot be properly characterized without considering data visualization and trend extraction. This dissertation presents two case analyses to showcase the effectiveness and improvements that can be made using these techniques. Case one examines flood management and mitigation of disruption impacts using geospatial characteristics as part of data visualization. Case two incorporates trend analysis and sustainability assessment into energy portfolio transitions. Four distinct contributions are made in this work and divided equally across the two cases. The first contribution identifies trends and flood characteristics that must be included as part of model development. The second contribution uses trend extraction to create a traffic management data visualization system based on the flood influencing factors identified. The third contribution creates a data visualization framework for energy portfolio analysis using a genetic algorithm and fuzzy logic. The fourth contribution develops a sustainability assessment model using trend extraction and time series forecasting of state-level electricity generation in a proposed transition setting. The data visualization and trend extraction tools developed and validated in this research will improve strategic infrastructure planning effectiveness”--Abstract, page iv

    Antecipação na tomada de decisĂŁo com mĂșltiplos critĂ©rios sob incerteza

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    Orientador: Fernando JosĂ© Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia ElĂ©trica e de ComputaçãoResumo: A presença de incerteza em resultados futuros pode levar a indecisĂ”es em processos de escolha, especialmente ao elicitar as importĂąncias relativas de mĂșltiplos critĂ©rios de decisĂŁo e de desempenhos de curto vs. longo prazo. Algumas decisĂ”es, no entanto, devem ser tomadas sob informação incompleta, o que pode resultar em açÔes precipitadas com consequĂȘncias imprevisĂ­veis. Quando uma solução deve ser selecionada sob vĂĄrios pontos de vista conflitantes para operar em ambientes ruidosos e variantes no tempo, implementar alternativas provisĂłrias flexĂ­veis pode ser fundamental para contornar a falta de informação completa, mantendo opçÔes futuras em aberto. A engenharia antecipatĂłria pode entĂŁo ser considerada como a estratĂ©gia de conceber soluçÔes flexĂ­veis as quais permitem aos tomadores de decisĂŁo responder de forma robusta a cenĂĄrios imprevisĂ­veis. Essa estratĂ©gia pode, assim, mitigar os riscos de, sem intenção, se comprometer fortemente a alternativas incertas, ao mesmo tempo em que aumenta a adaptabilidade Ă s mudanças futuras. Nesta tese, os papĂ©is da antecipação e da flexibilidade na automação de processos de tomada de decisĂŁo sequencial com mĂșltiplos critĂ©rios sob incerteza Ă© investigado. O dilema de atribuir importĂąncias relativas aos critĂ©rios de decisĂŁo e a recompensas imediatas sob informação incompleta Ă© entĂŁo tratado pela antecipação autĂŽnoma de decisĂ”es flexĂ­veis capazes de preservar ao mĂĄximo a diversidade de escolhas futuras. Uma metodologia de aprendizagem antecipatĂłria on-line Ă© entĂŁo proposta para melhorar a variedade e qualidade dos conjuntos futuros de soluçÔes de trade-off. Esse objetivo Ă© alcançado por meio da previsĂŁo de conjuntos de mĂĄximo hipervolume esperado, para a qual as capacidades de antecipação de metaheurĂ­sticas multi-objetivo sĂŁo incrementadas com rastreamento bayesiano em ambos os espaços de busca e dos objetivos. A metodologia foi aplicada para a obtenção de decisĂ”es de investimento, as quais levaram a melhoras significativas do hipervolume futuro de conjuntos de carteiras financeiras de trade-off avaliadas com dados de açÔes fora da amostra de treino, quando comparada a uma estratĂ©gia mĂ­ope. AlĂ©m disso, a tomada de decisĂ”es flexĂ­veis para o rebalanceamento de carteiras foi confirmada como uma estratĂ©gia significativamente melhor do que a de escolher aleatoriamente uma decisĂŁo de investimento a partir da fronteira estocĂĄstica eficiente evoluĂ­da, em todos os mercados artificiais e reais testados. Finalmente, os resultados sugerem que a antecipação de opçÔes flexĂ­veis levou a composiçÔes de carteiras que se mostraram significativamente correlacionadas com as melhorias observadas no hipervolume futuro esperado, avaliado com dados fora das amostras de treinoAbstract: The presence of uncertainty in future outcomes can lead to indecision in choice processes, especially when eliciting the relative importances of multiple decision criteria and of long-term vs. near-term performance. Some decisions, however, must be taken under incomplete information, what may result in precipitated actions with unforeseen consequences. When a solution must be selected under multiple conflicting views for operating in time-varying and noisy environments, implementing flexible provisional alternatives can be critical to circumvent the lack of complete information by keeping future options open. Anticipatory engineering can be then regarded as the strategy of designing flexible solutions that enable decision makers to respond robustly to unpredictable scenarios. This strategy can thus mitigate the risks of strong unintended commitments to uncertain alternatives, while increasing adaptability to future changes. In this thesis, the roles of anticipation and of flexibility on automating sequential multiple criteria decision-making processes under uncertainty are investigated. The dilemma of assigning relative importances to decision criteria and to immediate rewards under incomplete information is then handled by autonomously anticipating flexible decisions predicted to maximally preserve diversity of future choices. An online anticipatory learning methodology is then proposed for improving the range and quality of future trade-off solution sets. This goal is achieved by predicting maximal expected hypervolume sets, for which the anticipation capabilities of multi-objective metaheuristics are augmented with Bayesian tracking in both the objective and search spaces. The methodology has been applied for obtaining investment decisions that are shown to significantly improve the future hypervolume of trade-off financial portfolios for out-of-sample stock data, when compared to a myopic strategy. Moreover, implementing flexible portfolio rebalancing decisions was confirmed as a significantly better strategy than to randomly choosing an investment decision from the evolved stochastic efficient frontier in all tested artificial and real-world markets. Finally, the results suggest that anticipating flexible choices has lead to portfolio compositions that are significantly correlated with the observed improvements in out-of-sample future expected hypervolumeDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia ElĂ©tric
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