Analysis of contingency tables based on generalised median polish with power transformations and non-additive models

Contingency tables are a very common basis for the investigation of effects of different treatments or influences on a disease or the health state of patients. Many journals put a strong emphasis on p-values to support the validity of results. Therefore, even small contingency tables are analysed by techniques like t-test or ANOVA. Both these concepts are based on normality assumptions for the underlying data. For larger data sets, this assumption is not so critical, since the underlying statistics are based on sums of (independent) random variables which can be assumed to follow approximately a normal distribution, at least for a larger number of summands. But for smaller data sets, the normality assumption can often not be justified. Robust methods like the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney-U test or the Kruskal-Wallis test do not lead to statistically significant p-values for small samples. Median polish is a robust alternative to analyse contingency tables providing much more insight than just a p-value. Median polish is a technique that provides more information than just a p-value. It explains the contingency table in terms of an overall effect, row and columns effects and residuals. The underlying model for median polish is an additive model which is sometimes too restrictive. In this paper, we propose two related approach to generalise median polish. A power transformation can be applied to the values in the table, so that better results for median polish can be achieved. We propose a graphical method how to find a suitable power transformation. If the original data should be preserved, one can apply other transformations – based on so-called additive generators – that have an inverse transformation. In this way, median polish can be applied to the original data, but based on a non-additive model. The non-linearity of such a model can also be visualised to better understand the joint effects of rows and columns in a contingency table

Complexity in Economic and Social Systems

There is no term that better describes the essential features of human society than complexity. On various levels, from the decision-making processes of individuals, through to the interactions between individuals leading to the spontaneous formation of groups and social hierarchies, up to the collective, herding processes that reshape whole societies, all these features share the property of irreducibility, i.e., they require a holistic, multi-level approach formed by researchers from different disciplines. This Special Issue aims to collect research studies that, by exploiting the latest advances in physics, economics, complex networks, and data science, make a step towards understanding these economic and social systems. The majority of submissions are devoted to financial market analysis and modeling, including the stock and cryptocurrency markets in the COVID-19 pandemic, systemic risk quantification and control, wealth condensation, the innovation-related performance of companies, and more. Looking more at societies, there are papers that deal with regional development, land speculation, and the-fake news-fighting strategies, the issues which are of central interest in contemporary society. On top of this, one of the contributions proposes a new, improved complexity measure

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Korpuslingvistilised ja eksperimentaalsed meetodid grammatilise sünonüümia uurimisel

Doktoriväitekiri käsitleb alalütleva käände ja kaassõnaga peal keelekonstruktsioonide paralleelset kasutust kohasuhete markeerimisel tänapäeva eesti kirjakeeles. Mõlema konstruktsiooniga on võimalik väljendada ruumilist suhet, kus mingi figuur (nt vaas) asub tausta (nt laua) pealmisel pinnal: vaas on laual ja vaas on laua peal. Väitekirjal on kaks eesmärki. Esimeseks eesmärgiks on välja selgitada, millised semantilised ja morfosüntaktilised variaablid mõjutavad alalütleva ja kaassõna peal kasutust. Väitekiri on esimene suuremahuline kvantitatiivne uurimus grammatilisest sünonüümiast sünteetiliste ja analüütiliste vormide vahel, mis erineb tüpoloogiliselt inglise keele sõnajärje alternat¬sioonidest. Töö teiseks eesmärgiks on hinnata erinevate meetodite kasulikkust grammatilise sünonüümia uurimisel. Väitekirjas on rakendatud erinevaid meetodeid, rõhuasetus on empiirilisel kvantitatiivsel lähenemisel. Töös on esitatud kahe korpusuuringu ja kahe keelelise katse tulemused. Põhijärelduseks on, et parima tulemuse annab erinevate meetodite (introspektsioon, korpusanalüüs, keelelised katsed) kooskasutamine. Analüüsist ilmneb, et semantilised variaablid, mis puudutavad erinevaid tausta omadusi (nt tausta liik ja liikuvus/liigutatavus), ja lauses kasutatud verb mõjutavad oluliselt valikut kahe konstruktsiooni vahel. Suurte, staatiliste taustadega (nt turg) eelistatakse pigem kohakäänet ja väiksemate, liikuvate/liigutatavate taustadega (nt kapp) kaassõna. Morfosüntaktilistest variaablitest mängivad rolli taustobjekti fraasi pikkus ja komplekssus, figuuri ja tausta sõnaliik ja sõnajärg. Pikemate ja komplekssemate tausta fraasidega (nt kirjutuslaud) kasutatakse lühemat ja ökonoomsemat alalütlevat käänet. Lühemate ja vähem komplekssemate taustaobjekti fraasidega, eriti asesõnadega (nt see) kasutatakse kohakaassõna peal. Väitekirjas leiab kinnitust eeldus, et eesti keele alalütleva käände ja kaassõna peal vahel ei esine täissünonüümiat, ja et nende kahe konstruktsiooni kasutust mõjutavad mitmed semantilised ja morfosüntaktilised variaablid.The dissertation studies the alternation between the adessive case and the adposition peal ‘on’ in present-day written Estonian. Both constructions can be used to describe a spatial scene, where, a Figure (e.g. a vase) is placed on top of a Ground (e.g. a table): vaas on laual (the adessive construction) and vaas on laua peal (the peal-construction), both meaning “The vase is on the table”. The thesis has two aims: first, to examine which semantic and morphosyntactic variables play a role in the choice between the two constructions; and second, to assess the usefulness of different methodologies in studying grammatical synonymy. The dissertation is a first large-scale quantitative study that looks at an alternation phenomenon which is typologically different from the English word order alternations and employs a combination of both corpus and experimental methodologies with an emphasis on advanced statistical analysis. The main conclusion is that the theoretical description of any linguistic phenomenon benefits from methodological pluralism. The results of two corpus studies and two experimental studies are reported. The results indicate that the various semantic properties of the Ground play a role (e.g. type and mobility). In addition, the morphosyntactic variables of length and complexity of the Ground phrase, word class of the Ground and Figure, and word order affect the choice. The adessive case construction is preferred with large, static Grounds (e.g. turg ‘market’) and with Ground phrases that are longer and more complex (e.g. kirjutuslaud ‘writing desk’). The peal-construction is preferred with smaller, movable Grounds (e.g. kapp ‘cupboard’) and with Ground phrases that are shorter and less complex, especially with pronouns (e.g. see ‘this’). The results reported in the dissertation confirm the prediction that the Estonian adessive case and the adposition peal ‘on’ are not absolute synonyms and that several semantic and morphosyntactic variables play a role in the alternation between the two constructions in present day written-Estonian

Perspectives on Public Policy in Societal-Environmental Crises

This is an open access book. Histories we tell never emerge in a vacuum, and history as an academic discipline that studies the past is highly sensitive to the concerns of the present and the heated debates that can divide entire societies. But does the study of the past also have something to teach us about the future? Can history help us in coping with the planetary crisis we are now facing? By analyzing historical societies as complex adaptive systems, we contribute to contemporary thinking about societal-environmental interactions in policy and planning and consider how environmental and climatic changes, whether sudden high impact events or more subtle gradual changes, impacted human responses in the past. We ask how societal perceptions of such changes affect behavioral patterns and explanatory rationalities in premodernity, and whether a better historical understanding of these relationships can inform our response to contemporary problems of similar nature and magnitude, such as adapting to climate change